Thread: Poll: Was Tom Tempted Today????

Not yet, particularly before the deadline when the Dow was only down about 30 or 40. The indicators are not quite there yet. Today will help.

That housing market stat I talked about in todays' (4/13/04) comments has me spooked some. I don't want to miss the next rally because of it but I will take it into consideration. Because of this potential drop, I'd like to see all the ducks in a row before I get in. In particular the overbought/oversold indicator, the ARMS 10 day moving average, the investment sentiment indicators and possibly the put/call ratios.

I don't want to alarm anyone.:end: I just don't want to give away my measly 1.7% gain I have this year in one day. I see the S fund is down about that much today, but that is nothing for that fundafter it's recent run up. If I had caught some of those S fund gains in last several days, I may be thinking differently. I don't have a cushion to soften a blow.

I jumped back in today 50/50 C&S. I was sitting 100% G since my move on 8 April from50/50 C&S. I jumped out with the S&P at 1139 Cprice at $11.99 Sprice at $13.36. When I checked today about 1130 Eastern the S&P was down 5 points since yesterday and all indicators looked like the chances of a late rally were slim.

At the end of the day the S&Pclosed at1129.44. Tomorrow will be interesting however; I feel as if a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I would appreciate any comments on how this whole transaction affected my position. I appreciate all the knowledge that has been shared. I have learned something new each day and become much more aware of influences on the market. Thanks!

Hi Vet -
I'm not sure I understand the question - how this transactionaffected your position? Seems to me you were out of the market when it went down. Sounds like a good move to me. The decision to getin now remains to be seen. Obviously I am still out so the only way I like that right now is if you are sitting on good gains and can afford a little volatility.

Another down day, however,on Wednesday would get me very interested in getting at least something, if not all,in stocks.

tsptalk wrote:

Because of this potential drop, I'd like to see all the ducks in a row before I get in. In particular the overbought/oversold indicator, the ARMS 10 day moving average, the investment sentiment indicators and possibly the put/call ratios.

We had one of those indicators come through. The NYSE overbought/oversold (ob/os) indicator dipped deeply into oversold territory. This does not mean we have seen the bottom but we are closer to a buy signal. The Nasdaq ob/os indicator did not quite get as oversold. I am consideringa transfer Wednesday to get something into the C fund for Thursday. I'm not going to commit to that just yet so stay tuned.

BTW, Intel's earnings came up a bit short but it is not triggering too much after hours selling.

I WAS ON THE SIDELINES THE LAST FEW DAYS G-FUND.I-FUND 100%FROM 1-23-04 TO4-6-04 I GOT OUT JUST IN TIME AND I RECOVERED ALL MY LOSSES.THIS SITE HAS HELPED ME UNDERSTAND HOW THE STRONG DOLLAR EFFECTS THE I-FUND. WHEN THE DOLLAR GOES UP THE I FUND IS USUALLY DOWN EVEN WHEN THE U.K. AND JAPANESE MARKETS ARE STRONG. I GUESS THAT IS WHY THE I- FUND IS THE RISKIEST FUND THAT THE TSP OFFERS.TOM DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT BUSH'S SPEECH TONIGHT WILL EFFECT THE MARKET?WELL I DO AND I JUST MADE A TRANSFER TO THE C-FUND 100% FOR THURSDAY 4 15-04.CONFIDENCE WILL BE UP AND MONEY WILL POUR INTO THE MARKET AND I THINK THE C- FUND IS THE FUND TO BE IN.JUST A HUNCH THURSDAY IS THE DAY.I MIGHT BE A DAY OR TWO OFF BUT I HAVE TO TAKE THE PLUNGE ANYWAY.DOES ANYBODY KNOW HOW THE STOCK MARKET WAS DOING DURING PRESIDENT BUSH'S FATHERS REELECTION?HOW DOES IT REACT TO PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES?:^

batteryride wrote:

TOM DO YOU THINK THAT PRESIDENT BUSH'S SPEECH TONIGHT WILL EFFECT THE MARKET?WELL I DO AND I JUST MADE A TRANSFER TO THE C-FUND 100% FOR THURSDAY 4 15-04.CONFIDENCE WILL BE UP AND MONEY WILL POUR INTO THE MARKET AND I THINK THE C- FUND IS THE FUND TO BE IN.JUST A HUNCH THURSDAY IS THE DAY.I MIGHT BE A DAY OR TWO OFF BUT I HAVE TO TAKE THE PLUNGE ANYWAY.

After the Intel earnings, theS&P futures were slightly negative. After the president's speech they went slightly positive.Nothing too telling butleaning towardapositive bias. But you never know what will happen in the morning when the real trading begins.

Good chance I will make a move today. Check the allocation changes forum before the deadline for more info.

Count me in :^!!

50% C

50% S

After hearing about that Englishman who bet his entire life savings on one roulette wheel spin, this almost seems insignificant !

JerBer

:l

yesterday was down ,if today is down again

thats mean a sell out ?