Thread: PLANO Account Talk

Originally Posted by nnuut

Dip-a-d-DoDA!

You got that right, I'm the dip for jumping back in yesterday. I was so happy to get the 1% drop I was looking for and now I get to ride it down another 1%+ today. pffffft

Originally Posted by PLANO

You got that right, I'm the dip for jumping back in yesterday. I was so happy to get the 1% drop I was looking for and now I get to ride it down another 1%+ today. pffffft

Look on the bright side. You could be like me: out for all the gains & in for all the losses.

Learn from the pilgrims. Never stand directly in front of a cannon.

I made a lot of money today.

I have no idea why.

Back to you in the studio.

A Psalm for giving thanks.

Make a joyful noise to the LORD, all the earth!
Serve the LORD with gladness!
Come into his presence with singing!

Know that the LORD, he is God!
It is he who made us, and we are his;
we are his people, and the sheep of his pasture.

Enter his gates with thanksgiving,
and his courts with praise!
Give thanks to him; bless his name!

For the LORD is good;
his steadfast love endures forever,
and his faithfulness to all generations.

(Psalm 100)

Merry Christmas TSP friends!

Merry Christmas!

SIAP

A bear market in stocks just became more likely - MarketWatch




CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.


That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction for the next 12 months.


The accompanying table reflects historical data back to 1896, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created.

When the Dow for the first two trading days of the year posts a	The Dow’s average gain over the remainder of the year	Share of time the Dow rises for the remainder of the year
Gain	10.9%	75%
Loss	2.8%	51%

Those differences are significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use to determine if a pattern is genuine.


Furthermore, I found that the correlation with the rest of the year’s direction is higher when focusing on the first two trading days than on the first five days. That’s curious, because Wall Street has an indicator that focuses on the first five days (the “First Five Days of January Trading Indicator”) but not, as far as I am aware, on the first two days.


For the first two days of this year, the Dow dropped 1.8%. That’s even bigger than the 1.6% decline the Dow posted over the first two days of 2008, a fateful year that would later experience the worst bear market since the 1930s.


Needless to say, the Dow’s decrease over the first two trading days of this year doesn’t guarantee that the Dow will drop from now until the end of 2015. The statistics reported here are based on averages and probabilities. Notice, for example, that — even assuming the future is like the past — the Dow’s decline so far this year still leaves a 51% probability that the market will be up by year-end.


Last year, in fact, the Dow dropped 0.6% over the first two trading days, but nonetheless produced a modest gain from then until the end of 2014 of 8.2%.


Still, 2014 was an exception. Perhaps that’s why the market was unable to mount any serious rally at the end of Monday’s session.

This is FANTASTIC!

I will be deploying this great idea while watching the Cowboys/Packers game this weekend.