Missing the boat

**ibleve2** · 02-18-2005, 01:43 AM

After looking at your current move to 100% G- I see that you will clearly miss another move up. Using you own charts, I believe that you will soon see the S&P near 1238 or so and the next new support level will become right around our current mark of 1204 or so. I currently expect the small caps to continue to gain strength until interest rate hikes hinder borrowing. My current allocation is 20 C 35 S and 45 I.

As for the dollar strength, it will continue to decline with short periods of strength. I feel, there is a push to deflate the dollar to a level the Chinese will decide to peg their currency to another measure. At that time we will then see the dollar gain strength on a regular basis. This will be done in an effort to reduce the trade deficit, making products made in China more expensive.

**tsptalk** · 02-18-2005, 02:14 AM

ibleve2 wrote:

After looking at your current move to 100% G- I see that you will clearly miss another move up.

Clearly ibleve2? You may be rightbut I don't see anything clear about the market right now. We are overbought but at a very short term weak support level. My "guess" is we test lower stronger support. I could be wrong. Overconfidence is usually humbled pretty quickly.

Welcome and thanks for joining us.

Tom

**Rolo** · 02-18-2005, 04:02 AM

ibleve2 wrote:

the next new support level will become right around our current mark of 1204 or so.

I was wondering today if ~1204 was the new support level. If I had to bet (and I do), I am betting it is.

Of course, later, I can change my bet for a small 'fee'.

**tsptalk** · 02-18-2005, 01:48 PM

Options expiration Friday. We might see some flip flopping during the day. It will be difficult to get a good read, but itdid already fall below 1200 this morning. Let's see where it closes.

**Rolo** · 02-18-2005, 02:35 PM

I'm hoping for a long white day Monday to sorta repeat the R3M pattern.

Draw a trendline from January 3rd to February 8th. That may be the line to watch.

**vectorman** · 02-18-2005, 02:48 PM

Hi Rolo, I saw your picture of R3M pattern the other day. Would you explain to me what that is, and do you find it. Thanks

**Rolo** · 02-18-2005, 03:45 PM

Try this link:

Code:

http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Rising%20Three%20Methods.htm

1st day is a long white day.
Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends downward and closes within the range of the 1st day.
The last day is a long white day and closes above the 1st day's close.

Psychology...

This is a formation which shows the market taking a breather before continuing its uptrend. Notice that a new low is not seen during the 4 remaining days of this formation. This gives confidence to the bulls, making way for the next move upward in price.

Source: http://www.hotcandlestick.com

Also look at Bullish Mat Hold. It's not a perfect pattern, but resembles it. Today has me a little concerned: no gain, but no loss, either, save for a point or so. It's still anybody's game.

**deje2000** · 03-04-2005, 04:27 PM

Currently 15% G, 35% C, 25% S, and 25% in I since Monday 3/1. Should I pull back to G for next week? Wish me luck.:^

john

**ibleve2** · 03-04-2005, 06:35 PM

Hey Deje,

I say your allocation looks pretty good. The bull has broken through the fence now, I say the next level of resistance is somewhere near 1238 on the S&P, however you will more than likely see a little pull back before than. During the pullback you can reallocate some of the funds you have sitting in the G fund. The 25% you have allocated in the I fund is not speculative either, with the declining dollar.. You should see some nice gains. If you move to G you will chase this short term rally. I feel we are in a rally mode until end of March, unless significant effents in the Middle East cause oil prices to spike.

Ibleve2

**deje2000** · 03-04-2005, 07:13 PM

Hey Ibleve2,

Thanks for the input. Great news about the job reports today and the market is really proving it also with new high for Dow since 2001. I am looking forward to this months rally.

deje

**Mike** · 03-05-2005, 10:09 AM

One could argue we are in the midst of an oil price spike right now. It fell into the low-mid $40 range for quite awhile, but now it's back into the low to mid $50's. Gas prices have also risen to above $2 per gallon. If these things persist - and I think they will - we're looking at an ongoing drag on the economy since the cost of energy drives everything else.

#12 · 03-05-2005, 10:18 AM

Most of the rally today was market % weightings of XOM and AA...not exactly the stocks you want to see leading the pack. A good rally is when they are off 2% and the market goes up. That is when my nipples start tingling.