THUMB IN THE AIR INVESTOR

**NARC** · 02-06-2005, 02:23 AM

HELLO EVERYONE. I AM NEW TO THE SITE AND FIND IT QUITE INTERESTING, BUT OVERWHELMING. I'VE BEEN IN THE TSP FOR ABOUT 13 YEARS NOW AND STILL DON'T HAVE CLUE AS TO WHAT I AM DOING. I CONTRIBUTE THE MAX,STICK MY THUMB IN THE AIR, AND HOPE I MADE THE RIGHT DECISION. THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY! TODAY I WENT 50% C AND 50% I. IT WAS A GUT FEELING. SEE WHAT I MEAN.

I AM NOT GREEDY, BUT I AM WILLING TO TAKE SOME CHANCES. HECK, I'LL STAY IN UNTIL THE MANDATORY 57 1/2 AND THAT IS A LONG TIME OUT.

RECOMMENDATIONS SOUGHT ON ALLOCATIONS. ALSO, I READ A LITTLE ABOUT CONSULTANTS/MANAGERS. ANY RECOMMENDATIONS ON ONE THAT IS FAMILIAR WITH TSP OR USE TO WORKING W/FED EMPLOYEES? ANY GOOD INVESTMENT GUIDES OUT THERE FOR TSP EMPLOYEES? (BESIDES YOU FINE PEOPLE)

NEXT WEEK I WILL HEAR FROM SOMEONE WHO WORKS FOR THE FEDERAL EMPLOYEES BENEFIT GROUP. GOOD? BAD? WHAT'S UP WITH THE GROUP?

THANKS ALL AND HAVE A GOOD ONE.

NARC

#2 · 02-06-2005, 02:30 AM

This is a good example...13 years in TSP and he does not know what he is doing...this is a good reason not to have private accounts...you will force people to go long the stock market to be able to retire...theme from jaws here....the hedge fund guys are going to be ripping off limps....probably 60% off the population will just pick one stock fund and not even make a change...that is what it is like in the 401Ks...100% invested in the NASDAQ is extremely common...most aggressive because I got 20 years to go...

**tsptalk** · 02-06-2005, 02:46 AM

NARC wrote:

THERE HAS TO BE A MORE PRECISE WAY!

Welcome NARC! We all have different strategies. You have to find one that works for you. If you have time, check out the entire site. The message board is filled withquestions and answersabout everything you can probably think of. The longer term comments (www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html) gives my outlook for the next year or so. My daily market comments (www.tsptalk.com/comments.html) tell what I think about the current market situation.

I, and several members, post their allocations for all to see. Some explain why they are making the move. Since everyone's situation is different, I rarely say "Do this". I just tell you what I am doing and why. Then you have to make your own decision. If you read enough, you will get an idea of the type of approach you want to take to your TSP account.

Thanks for joining us. After going over the site, let us know if you have any questions.

Tom

#4 · 02-06-2005, 02:50 AM

Narc,

That is my normal greeting on this board....using you as an example...sorry your I have been in TSP for 13 years just makes me sad that will be the sole retirement for a lot of folks STARTING EARLY 2006.

Also I was a little taking back by your tag, Narc.

Tom will shove ya in the right direction...however I would like to add a site for ya since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told.

Fundadvice.com

You will probably want to research Hold and Hope....until you are comfortable with timing if you choice.

Good luck, welcome on board...hope you do not fall into the water.

MT

**NARC** · 02-06-2005, 02:58 AM

MarketTimer:

THANKS FOR THE QUICK RESPONSE. I APPRECIATE THE ADVICE/RECOMMENDATIONS. THANK YOU.

G-MAN WAS TAKEN AND I AM A LITTLE SHORT OF IMAGINATION TONIGHT, SO I WENT WITH NARC.

THANKS AGAIN,

NARC

**NARC** · 02-06-2005, 03:01 AM

TOM:

GREAT SITE AND THANK YOU FOR THE WELCOME. I TOOK A LOOK AT THE COMMENTS AND OUTLOOK SECTIONS. THANKS FOR THE ADVICE AND I'LL BE TALKIN TO YA.

NARC

**NARC** · 02-06-2005, 03:08 AM

MarketTimer,

Is Hold And Hope a book or stratagey? Thanks.

Narc

#8 · 02-06-2005, 03:18 AM

It is a pipe dream...ha ha.

Hold and hope is what I call...buy and hold.

Please go the site I told you...they will walk through everyone...if you have any questions please send me an e-mail...I will be glad to help you out.

Have a great day!

MT

#9 · 02-06-2005, 03:22 AM

MarketTimer wrote:

since I was kind of rude...which is rare for me I am told. MT

sorry couldn't resist

**NARC** · 02-06-2005, 03:26 AM

MT,

:^

#11 · 02-06-2005, 03:31 AM

Wonder,

No worries...I am really do not want to be rude....I just feel so sorry that our high schools do not even teach us to balance a check book yet they expect us to manager our own investments accounts...right out the block...

As you can see by the new folks...13, 15, 16 in the govt retirement system they do not have any training at all.

Social security reform will be the largest financial disaster of our life time...standing around the water cooler...when I am 95 I should be able to retire if the market goes up this year....when you make retirement on hope, need and greed that is right before a major market crash.

Once again...I am being a jerk because I am trying to get you start researching for your future and your retirement...I have found if I am a nice guy nothing happens I get results by dripping the facts on ya....

I truly care about you or I would not spend my time here.....

I am not saying I know everything...but I am saying I know what is going on and what is upcoming...as you can tell I have been very vocal in the last couple days...because just like in 2000 we got the buy on dips things there got to be one more rally thing going on again....history does repeat itself.

I know I was hard on Sarah....but she proves my point....three months or more on this board talking about trading S selling S buying S she did not even know what the fund was or what it was indexed too...CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??? I can...it really scares me that your ability to retire will be based on your ability to trade your funds....

I wish ya all the best. Call me crazy, call me nutty...but ya got to respect my calls...was anyone saying August 2004: It will get bad the start of the New Year?? Ohh that January thing was just a buying opporunity...no that was a wake up call, the markets go down too.

MT

**Spaf** · 02-06-2005, 03:49 AM

MT...Kind of got to agree with you. That is what we should be doing is helping others out. Toms home page pretty much sums it up "How is your Thrift Savings Plan account performing? A well allocated TSP account could make a major difference in your balance when you retire."

How many TSP participants are just in one or two funds, how many know how to play the market and protect assets?

Yea! we want our funds to grow, but we also want to help others.

Being your own investor for social security, might stur some education in schools.

So for all the new folks: Read through the TSP site to learn about the funds and how to allocate and transfer, also read about the funds. Stay on this site also and learn it's navigation. Listen, and when you think you got the feel of things, jump in. If you have any questions, ask! There is no stupid question, cause we were all there one time or another. And, WELCOME!

Rgds!

Spaf