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Thread: Crommie's Account Talk

  1. #1

    Default Crommie's Account Talk

    I figured that I should start sharing my thoughts, moves, and general ramblings with this community in my own thread as I have posted a few times recently on some of yours.

    Here is a brief history of my investments to start off. I am a Maine Maritime Academy Alumnus ('86E) and a former Merchant Marine (11 years at sea). Oil Company 401K and Employee Stock Purchase Plans got me started back in the 80's. Spent the first chunk on a down payment on my first house and still have the second chunk in an IRA Rollover in various American Funds. The first move worked out very well as I bought a foreclosure in '91 and sold it high in 2001 and rolled that into another fixer-upper that is getting close to being done after ten years of labor, but that is a different story. That second move was the worst one ever as the Oil Company Stock rose and split two or three times and then skyrocketed with a corporate buy out. It would have been worth 4 TIMES what it is today if I had just left it alone for a few more years! That's what I get for listening to the "professionals". I started my government career in 2000 and opened my TSP Account as soon as I was able to going 100% C Fund. I then slept at the wheel for my first 11 years of contributing. Road the C Fund down through 2008/2009 and back up through 2010 and first half of 2011. I finally woke up when Congress played their shutdown game in July 2011 and moved 100% to the G Fund in the knick of time...(S&P @ 1337 on July 25th, 2011). I sure wish I had those eleven years of IFTs back! I have been reading this site, Morningstar.com, Bloomberg.com, and various others everyday since then and have jumped in and out a couple of times with minimal success (always on the wrong side of the fence!). I did pick up a quick 3.06% in four days this month in the S Fund! I have learned a lot in the past five months and hopefully will make smarter choices moving forward, not that 2011 was anything to be ashamed of: PIP for the past 12 months ending 11/30/2011 was 14.53%!

    I am in the F Fund now and picking up a few tenths of a percent. I really enjoy reading what you all have to share and I hope that I can contribute something meaningful too. Happy New Year and rising TSP Accounts to you all!


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  3. #2

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Washington
    Posts
    9,583

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Congrats on your 2011 returns and good luck in 2012 !!!

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  5. #3

    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    OKC area
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Welcome aboard Crommie & congrats on your 2011 return
    Knowledge is very powerful for your future

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  7. #4

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    76,393

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Great returns Crommie, keep up the good work and best of luck.
    Norman



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  9. #5

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    In my opinion, the bear has come out of hybration and it is just a matter of time before he starts to roar! There seems to be whispers in the wind that have awoke him coming from across the pond. There are things afoot that we are not being told about.. . . In a Bloomberg.com article this morning, Jens Nordvig, managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in NYC, was quoted, “Six weeks ago, it looked as if there was going to be an imminent funding crisis, but that (was) averted by the ECB’s money injection.” Six weeks ago was Thanksgiving week . . . I'm sure you all remember that downward slide...followed by the ECB Loans to european banks and all was calm again. . . but for how long. Check out this article on bbc.com. All is not well with the EU banks and Italy's UniCredit is at the eye of the storm. UniCredit shares fell another 10% today causing their trading to be suspended for a second day in a row.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16424802
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.

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  11. #6

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    You are looking back over your shoulder for last year's problems - the market is in the process of decoupling from Europe and their problems. I'm waiting for a little more QE3 to come into play.

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    The issue at hand is that last year's problem is still there. It has not been fixed; only kicked down the road by artificially increasing liquidity. A QE3 would have the same short lived effect of kicking the can again until a QE4 is needed to kick it again. If this is how the Fed and ECB are going to continue then we are going to continue to have volatility. Real prosperity will not come until the root cause is fixed. Unfortunately the fix could kill the patient.
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.

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  15. #8

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    I think the other shoe just fell...
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Okay, I did it, I made the leap from Bear to BULL!
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Okay Guys and Gals, I need your opinions! I am considering moving out of I and into F today. My reasoning is that the Greek thing has been dragging out too long and there are lots of meetings happening in the EU this weekend to determine what to do. The latest reports on Greece are starting to sound like this deal is done BUT Greece will still default and leave the Euro. I was thinking of moving to S, but think that next week the market may take a rest before continuing up, and that is when I would move out of F and into S...
    Thank you for your comments in advance!
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.

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  21. #11

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Manufacturing in Europe has been improving - exports will increase and so will company profits.

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  23. #12

    Default Re: Crommie's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Manufacturing in Europe has been improving - exports will increase and so will company profits.
    Thanks Birch, don't worry, I am still Bullish for the year, just worried about the Europeans and their weekend exploits. I worry when the Finance Ministers get in front of the microphone. They are not trained politicians and tend to say exactly what they think! Looks like I'm going to exicute my plan. Any other last minute words of wisdom out there??

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