Thread: Frizz B Account Talk

I started doing the math, my #'s tell me never play the C Fund. If the markets are good the S and I out do the C and when the markets are bad the F outdoes the C. - Frizz B

Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.

Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html

Tom

True, when my #'s speak to me that the C starts outperforming the S I will change strategies, Thanks

Would it be possible to take $100,000.00 play money and let Frizz B show how he would invest it over the next 6 months and show allocations ( before the 12 noon est deadline),transactions and returns. - plto6

Sure.I believe at one time Frizz said he was going to use $130,000 (I'm not sure if that was his own account balance, but I'd rather leave personal balances out of this anyway)so $100,000 (or $10,000 or $1,000) sounds like a good idea.Frizz B?

By the way, I'm trying to keep the actual Account threads clean by having only FrizzB's (or whoever else starts one) allocations and transfers in it. So please make comments in this "Frizz B Account Talk" thread. It might not work out this way but let's try for now.

Thanks!
Tom

Tom

It is not working, people go into Wheels and My account to see how what we are doing and they make the comment in our account, not really wantiing to leave the account that they read to make a comment in another mesage board.

Frizz B.

I noticed. I wish I can move the post, but I can't. I can only move entire topics to new forums. I can alwaysdelete the posts butit's usually a post of some worth.

You can send a private message asking if the poster ifwould mind cutting and pasting the message into the "Account Talk" topic, then they orI can delete the original post. But I think this is going to be tougher than I thought.

I moved my funds onMarch 31, 2004 from the I fundto theS fund ($100.000)Then Iadjusted all my funds shares tomake each Fund equal, I like to start with equal amts to see how my fund is doing compared to the rest in the same time span. I am looking to increase my shares in my accounts. The more shares I have the more money I have. The date is April 1

F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.23 = $100000

C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 11.91 = $100000

S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.33 = $100000

I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 12.61 = $100000 with my point differential changing from 310 to 331 in the F Fund & 142 in the C fund, my #'s said to change to the F Fund which I did Friday April 2 to start Monday in the F Fund, as you will see I gained in Shares, I used the S Fund of $100825 And divided it by the share price to get my shares in each account and start fresh.

F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.13 = $ 99022/ $100825 / 10.13 = 9953.13 F shares

C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 12.01 = $100840 /$100825 / 12.01 = 8395.10C shares

S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.44 =S shares stayed the same

I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 13.60 = $ 99927/ $100825 / 13.60 = 7413.62. I shares

Hope this explains it better, I will update this on Monday again 100 % F fund for me. I believe the stock market will take a breather and give back some of its gains. I will see now if my number system is worth anything, all I have heard from everyone else is the market will still gain.

Enjoy, FrizzB

I understand the math but I don't agree with your statement that more shares = more money. Like my example above, if you've got 10,000 shares at $10 and I've got 9,000 shares at $12 then I've got more money. What if the F fund were to start declining. And meanwhile the C and the S were both increasing. If you wanted to sell your F and buy some C or S you would have to buy less shares. Would you stay in the F as it continued to decline simply because you couldn't buy into something else at more shares?

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Dave

I don't really get that part either. But maybe it's like that spreadsheet wheels, so easy to show someone, but impossible to explain via email .

One more time, I started with theS fund and had 100 shares at 12.00 a share. I would have $1200.00 at the same time I wouldcalcutate that Ihad120 shares of F fund at 10.00 a share. The S fund went up to $13.00 a share, I still had 100 shares. I would now have $1300.00 and the F fundstayed at $10 a share. So now I make the change tothe F fund because my diffenential tells me to. So I divide the $1300 that I have in the S fund by the$10 a sharethat the F fund is at that day. Now instead of the 120 shares in the F fund I start with 130 shares which equals the $1300 dollars that I had in the S fund, now both funds are equal again after each transaction. Now the stock market drops, which has been the case since I have been tracking this. So theF fund goes up to 10.50 a share and the S fund drops to 12.75. The F fund went to $1365, and the S fund drop to $1275. Now the # differential says to go back to the S fund. I take the $1365 that I have in the F fund and divide that by the share price in the S fund $1365 / $12.75 = 107 in the S fund. I picked up 7 share. I have in my account $1365, if I had stayed in the S fund I would only have 100 shares at $12.75 = $1275. Now that I have move back to the S fund I start each fund out equally in shares and start again.

As I asked, do you have the statements of every transaction that you have made, when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.

I can't say that everyone of my transactions is right. I have to keep adjusting my point differential, I have already since I first started. I could at this point, by moving into the F fund, lose money if the Stock Market keeps on rallying. At some point I will say to myself that the differential has to be changed and hopefully get out without to much damage. Nobody has a fool proof system. But if the stock market takes a breather and gives back some of its gains, and the F fund stays the same or rises, when I move back to the S fund I will have more shares than when I started, that is my goal is to pick up shares, the more shares you have the more money you have.

Frizzb

Like Tom said, if you are not doing this on a excel spreadsheet you might not really get it until you do.

[align=center]A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS[/align]

when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.

Not true. Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money. The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.

Dave

I see what Frizz is saying now butDave and I talk % gain / losswhere Frizz talks shares.

Say I'm100% in the S fund and currently up 2% for the year.

If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.

The market and S fund do fall so I goback to the S fund. I'm still up 2% for the year (assumingthe G fund did not have a gain) and my balance has stayed the same.

This is where Frizz says he picked up shares (which he did) but his balance stayed the same.

Dave and I just say we are still up 2% as our balance also stayed the same, although we actually picked up shares also. I just never look at it like that because whether you have 100 shares or 10,000, it's percentages that determine your return.