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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #1

    Default MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Looking at the S&P 500:

    spx 10-14-11.png

    On Monday, we had the Stochastics and PPO crossover, and heading higher. We also have price movement break above the 50 day EMA. That was enough to trigger a buy signal, although I waited until Wednesday to make my IFT's due to the weak breakthrough on Monday. Note the positive divergence of the PPO (middle indicator), and price action. These are all positive signs.

    This is my 6th trade for the year.

    We are right at the resistance level ceiling of 1224, but if we can clear that next week, things will improve technically.

    Time will tell if this is the beginning of an "end of year rally" or not. Honestly, I have no idea why the Stock Market wants to move higher here. With all the financial problems in the world, I'm amazed that we haven't seen a bloodbath (yet). I expect it will come soon enough.

    To your success!


  2.  
  3. #2

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Hi Mr. Ross, welcome to the board. I think you are starting to confuse the board, at least you are me. I just wanted to post a couple remarks you have made on another thread that are a bit confusing with what you are saying now. Hopefully you won't be starting a new thread every time you have something to say as it makes it a bit harder to "keep things straight". Perhaps you can start your own thread?

    On the 12th at 11:10pm ET you wrote "Just moved from G/F to C/S/I. Relatively weak breakout today, but enough to confirm my signal."

    On the 13th at 11:48pm ET you wrote "We need to break above 11,613 on the Dow to confirm."

    Now you just wrote "On Monday, we had the Stochastics and PPO crossover, and heading higher. We also have price movement break above the 50 day EMA. That was enough to trigger a buy signal, although I waited until Wednesday to make my IFT's due to the weak breakthrough on Monday."

    So when did you make your IFT, Monday or Wednesday? The Dow didn't break out past 11613 until Friday?

    On the 13th at 10:34pm you also wrote "Since 2007 (when I started my Timing System) the S&P 500 has a cumulative return of -18.5% (as of the end of last week). My Timing System has had a cumulative return of 82.5%. Not trying to brag, just providing my statistics."

    Is this return based on systemic entries or based on your decision to wait a few days after a confirmed signal change because the breakthrough was weak?

    Just trying to get a clear picture. You seem to have had some success in the past and I hope it continues for you. If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods. Hopefully you will start an account on the autotracker so everyone can follow along. I think you've picked a particularly good time to start one.

    Good luck to you!

  4.  
  5. #3

    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Hello Intrepid_Timer! Thank you for your warm welcome!

    I just became a member here, so please forgive me if I've posted in the wrong areas. I started my original thread in the "Technical Analysis" section, because I didn't know where else to start, and felt that my chart would appeal to those who enjoy the technical aspects of trading. NASA1974 suggested that I begin a thread here in the "Members Account Talk" area. Is this what you mean by "Perhaps you can start your own thread? "

    Technically speaking, my indicators flashed a "Buy" signal on Monday, Oct 10. However, I waited until Wednesday, Oct 12 to make my IFT transactions, due to the weak signal on Monday and Tuesday.

    No matter how well my system has worked over the past X years, I sometimes have that "what if" feeling when I make a trade. Hence my comments about the "Dow needing to clear 11,613 to confirm" that the trade is going in the right direction.

    My system is based on actual trade dates. Some of the trades were made on the same day as the Buy or Sell signal days, and some were a day or two later (to confirm the market direction).

    In regards to: "If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods" let me say this...

    As you well know, there is no perfect trading system. My Timing System is a fairly simple trend following model. I was hoping to design a system that could be easily followed, powerful, and simple to implement. I think I have done that.

    There are always trade-offs when designing a system. You want it to get you out near the tops, and back in near the bottoms of major market moves. However, if you design it to get too close to the tops and bottoms, you'll get multiple whipsaw trades. Hopefully I've struck a good balance between the two.

    There have been times when the market trades within a tight range, and a signal is generated that doesn't produce a profitable trade. However, because the markets haven't moved much within that tight range, there's usually not much lost (or gained) during that time period. With an average of 5 trades a year, this doesn't happen very often.

    I just started an autotracker account this weekend, and am looking forward to seeing if I can at least make a respectable showing.

    Hope this helps!

  6.  
  7. #4

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Looking at the S&P 500:

    ... Time will tell if this is the beginning of an "end of year rally" or not. Honestly, I have no idea why the Stock Market wants to move higher here. With all the financial problems in the world, I'm amazed that we haven't seen a bloodbath (yet). I expect it will come soon enough. ...
    My theory on why it may move higher (keep in mind that I'm extremely inexperienced at this): Seems to me this rally was based on relatively low volume. Could that mean there's a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that won't be able to resist going into equities if the trend continues upward, thus fueling higher highs? It strikes me that there has been a fairly strong correlation between the Euro news and the market trends -- going back at least as far as late July. This latest rally was triggered by Euro news as well. Meanwhile, bears who see major structural and deficit problems leading inevitably to a market collapse, sit on the sideline. Euro news continues to be promising. Will big money bears be able to resist if this rally continues or at least continues an upward albeit somewhat volatile trend? I'm guessing not, which maybe means we will see the start of an end of year rally next week or shortly after. Keeping my fingers crossed!

  8.  
  9. #5

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Hello Intrepid_Timer! Thank you for your warm welcome!

    I just became a member here, so please forgive me if I've posted in the wrong areas. I started my original thread in the "Technical Analysis" section, because I didn't know where else to start, and felt that my chart would appeal to those who enjoy the technical aspects of trading. NASA1974 suggested that I begin a thread here in the "Members Account Talk" area. Is this what you mean by "Perhaps you can start your own thread? "

    Technically speaking, my indicators flashed a "Buy" signal on Monday, Oct 10. However, I waited until Wednesday, Oct 12 to make my IFT transactions, due to the weak signal on Monday and Tuesday.

    No matter how well my system has worked over the past X years, I sometimes have that "what if" feeling when I make a trade. Hence my comments about the "Dow needing to clear 11,613 to confirm" that the trade is going in the right direction.

    My system is based on actual trade dates. Some of the trades were made on the same day as the Buy or Sell signal days, and some were a day or two later (to confirm the market direction).

    In regards to: "If these are the only three perimeters you use, I can tell you from experience that I have my doubts about this system working during tight trading periods" let me say this...

    As you well know, there is no perfect trading system. My Timing System is a fairly simple trend following model. I was hoping to design a system that could be easily followed, powerful, and simple to implement. I think I have done that.

    There are always trade-offs when designing a system. You want it to get you out near the tops, and back in near the bottoms of major market moves. However, if you design it to get too close to the tops and bottoms, you'll get multiple whipsaw trades. Hopefully I've struck a good balance between the two.

    There have been times when the market trades within a tight range, and a signal is generated that doesn't produce a profitable trade. However, because the markets haven't moved much within that tight range, there's usually not much lost (or gained) during that time period. With an average of 5 trades a year, this doesn't happen very often.

    I just started an autotracker account this weekend, and am looking forward to seeing if I can at least make a respectable showing.

    Hope this helps!
    Fair enough. I learned the hard that simplicity doesn't always work as I modified my own system in May down to 8 indicators from 13, getting rid of 5 of my more volatile indicators in order to stay in trades longer during the bull rally. This hurt me big time in August so I switched back to my more sophisticated model in mid-August and things are back to performing the way I envisioned in the first place, that is nice gains in short periods with less risk. (Up 14.35% since reverting back)

    Good luck to you and I look forward to comparing our returns in the future. Like I said, I think you picked a good time to start an autotracker account.

    BTW, what was your return last year and so far this year?

  10.  
  11. #6

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Since this thread is in the members account talk area, Tom or one of the moderators will probably change the title of the thread to "MrJohnRoss's account talk" in keeping with all the other threads in this sub-forum. This is where you will post relevant information about your strategy and your IFT's.

    Welcome, Good Luck and thanks for your contributions!

  12.  
  13. #7

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinD View Post
    Since this thread is in the members account talk area, Tom or one of the moderators will probably change the title of the thread to "MrJohnRoss's account talk" in keeping with all the other threads in this sub-forum. This is where you will post relevant information about your strategy and your IFT's.

    Welcome, Good Luck and thanks for your contributions!
    Actually Members are free to discuss anything they desire in their Account Talk threads, it's up to them. It is their thread and other Members shouldn't post anything that is off the subject that the Member has chosen to discuss.
    Good Posting
    Links Crude Settle $42.53 06-21-2017
    -$.98 Loss




  14.  
  15. #8

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Just trying to help out the new guy.

  16.  
  17. #9

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    This thread is now Named MrJohnRoss' Account Talk thanks guys!
    Links Crude Settle $42.53 06-21-2017
    -$.98 Loss





  18.  
  19. #10

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    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    This thread is now Named MrJohnRoss' Account Talk thanks guys!
    MrJohnRoss, thanks to NNUUT you now have your account talk thread named after you so people know where to find you, and you always have a spot to let others know what you are up to!
    You can also link your AutoTracker account to your account talk thread....see the 'sticky' at the top of the Account Talk forum.
    You are off to a great start, thoroughly enjoy your posts!

  20.  
  21. #11

    Default Re: Signals Turned Green on Monday

    IntrepidTimer:

    Here are the annual returns for the S&P 500 compared to my Timing System:

    Year:
    S&P
    TIMING
    2007
    3.5%
    11.7%
    2008
    -38.5%
    -3.9%
    2009
    23.5%
    32.5%
    2010
    12.8%
    21.8%
    2011 YTD
    -2.6%
    6.9%
    CAGR*
    -3.0%
    13.7%



    Looking forward to learning more about your system as well!

    Thank you KevinD, nnuut, and uscfanhawaii for all your help!

  22.  
  23. #12

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Technical indicators improved significantly today. The S&P finally broke through resistance at 1230 to close at 1238. Another good sign was that the market closed very near the high. Glad I made my trade to get back in the market last week. Ultimately I believe that this is a short term rally within a bigger bear market, but I will take what the market gives me, even if it's for just a few weeks of gains.


    spx 10-21-11.png

    I'll be watching this weekend to see what Germany and France come up with for their huge bail-out problems. The debt crisis is not going to go away. Very scary stuff. I believe that the Euro will eventually implode, and the financial shock waves will be like a tsunami across the globe.

    Also hear rumblings of huge derivative problems with our big banks (Bank of America, etc). Talk about financial armageddon!

    In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy the beautiful weather here in Northern California. Hope you all have a fun and relaxing weekend!

    John

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