Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Very little time to post, so just a quick observation.


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The S&P is looking like it may break below the 2120 level soon, which would put it outside the bottom of the box that it's been in since early July. The Nasdaq and Mr Tran look like they're rolling over as well.

The chart of WTIC (below) is sure looking like it's going to fail the test of 51.67. Rising oil prices have been a positive for the market, esp for the energy sector (obviously). A failure to clear that resistance could be a negative for the market in general.


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The dollar had a slight pullback today, but is still on a tear higher, which hurts commodities.

Gonna keep an eye on treasury yields and the dollar, as I think they're key to the market at this time. Earnings season has been a mixed bag, so you never know what tomorrow may bring though.

Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell.

Good luck!

Thank you for the thoughts John. Hey, is that huge rounded top you posted awhile back still in play?
Also, a lot of folks thinking a little bit of a rally here. I tend to agree because I just don't think the market makers are going to let this thing fall ahead of elections.
If we happen to get a decent bump this week, I'm looking for the door...

Originally Posted by JamesE

Thank you for the thoughts John. Hey, is that huge rounded top you posted awhile back still in play?
Also, a lot of folks thinking a little bit of a rally here. I tend to agree because I just don't think the market makers are going to let this thing fall ahead of elections.
If we happen to get a decent bump this week, I'm looking for the door...

Thanks for the reminder James. Here's a chart of the rounded top that I posted about a month ago...


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Of course, please don't take the blue arrows literally, they're just an approximation of what I thought might likely happen a month ago. (Possibly a return lower to the rounded top pattern, followed by a relief rally before the big fall happens later this year or early next year).

It could still play out in that approximate scenario. I think you're correct in assuming things should go smoothly until after the election, but afterwards, when the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates in December, things could start to get a bit dicey.

Today seemed like just a minor bounce off of the lower BB (on the daily chart) on it's way lower in the intermediate term. However, Rob Hanna, whose opinion I respect, has shown a study where 20 day lows (like Monday) are often followed by decent four day rallies, so we have to keep that possibility in mind. On the other hand, today's gap higher could very likely get filled in the next couple of days, which would require the market to head lower. It's still a choppy market folks.

Meanwhile, my VIX system generated a buy signal, as the VIX fell almost 6% today. That puts the composite system at (-1-1+1) = -1, a mild sell/hold signal. I will hold cash at this time until the system shows a buy signal.

Good luck!

The markets appear to be attempting a bit of a rally off the bottom of the 4% "box".


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Perhaps the 4% trend will continue a few more weeks until the election is behind us. We're getting some surprise earnings to the upside, which is fueling this mini rally.

Oil (WTIC) also looks like it may break long term resistance, currently just under 52. A breakout now appears imminent, which is another positive for the bulls.

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I was surprised to see my PPO system generate a buy signal today. That now puts my composite system at (+1+1-1) = +1, a mild buy signal. As such, I am heading back into equities as of the close of business tomorrow.

Good luck!

Today was a "spinning top" kind of day, showing indecisiveness.


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On the one hand, there have been a lot of good earnings surprises. On the other hand, the $USD continued to climb today, which hurt commodities, notably WTIC. A drop in oil hurt the energy sector, which tripped up the market. There really isn't a big catalyst to move this market strongly in either direction.

Mr VIX, (below), continues to show complacency.


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I'm anticipating that the markets will float higher for the time being, possibly through the rest of the month, with occasional fits and starts to keep everyone guessing.

Composite system remains at +1, a hold/buy position. Was glad to see the market come down a little bit today to allow a slightly better entry price. Dow futures are down about 33 as of this writing, but we'll see how things finally shake out come tomorrow morning.

Good luck!

Nice pop in the markets today. Nasdaq looks especially strong:


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Big gap higher at the open, and closed very near the HOD, both good signs. The other items to notice are the solid move back above the 50 DMA, and the Stoch crossing above the 50 line, both bullish developments.

The S&P also gapped higher at the open, but has yet to cross above it's 50 DMA. It's now been 32 straight days that the S&P has been below the 50 DMA, but above the 200 DMA. According to a Marketwatch article, this warns of a possible end to the uptrend that's been in place since February. I'm not so sure about that, but we shall see.

The strengthening dollar is still a concern, as is the failure of WTIC to get above the $52 area.

Never the less, my composite system is now reading a bullish +3 after wavering the last two days, so I'll remain in stocks... for now.

Good luck!

The market looks like it may be forming a bearish descending triangle at this point.


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The good news is that the last few days have been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, so we may also see a breakout above that upper line and the 50 DMA.

The bad news is that we're once again right on the fence with the oscillators, and a strong down day could send the composite into the negative. As it stands, we're still at +3, but just barely.

Good luck!

It's looking more and more like any hope for a short term rally is quickly fading.


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The 4% box is still in play, as is the bearish descending triangle. Stoch has crossed below the 50 line, which is bearish. The PPO, which was rising last week, is now rolling over into the negative. We're also falling further away from the 50 DMA. There really isn't much bullish news about this chart at all, except the 50 is above the 200.

The S Fund even looks worse than the S&P, and the Nasdaq had a big bearish engulfing today to cross back under it's 50 DMA.

Oil has now officially failed it's test of resistance, and may be looking for support in the 47 area.


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With WTIC falling, the dollar rising, and interest rates shooting higher, stocks are having a rough time going any higher.

Composite system now reads -3, a strong sell. As such, I will move to the sidelines tomorrow, and absorb yet another small loss. It's just the nature of the beast.

Good luck!

A couple of quick charts to peruse on your Monday morning. BPSPX is the percentage of bullish P&F charts in the S&P500:


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With a peak at 77 and change at the end of Aug, it's been all downhill since early Sept. Note the bearish crossover of the 20 DMA. This last week saw an especially steep drop off.

Next up, the NAAD, which is the Nasdaq Advances minus Declines chart:


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Looks like a top was produced on Sept 22 (at 9228), and it began rolling over soon after. Price plunged under both the 21 and 39 EMA, and the 21 is now below the 39 for another bearish flag.

Unless the market can make a comeback this week, it's looking more and more like it's going down a slippery slope.

Good luck!

The Only Chart That Matters ~ Eric Parnell, Seeking Alpha

• The economic and corporate backdrop has been sluggish at best in the post crisis period.
• Yet the stock market has continued to rise in what is now the second longest bull market, although it has turned largely flat in recent years.
• One particular chart matters most when trying to explain performance in the post crisis period and exactly when we might see a sustainable correction in stocks going forward.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Unless the market can make a comeback this week, it's looking more and more like it's going down a slippery slope.

Good luck!

Rut roh! I suppose I can wait another couple months before spinning the wheel.