Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

A bit of a black swan event today with investors finally waking up to the problems at Deutsche Bank (DB).


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Note the massive down volume on today's rout. About 11X the normal volume on a drop of 6.67%. Just seems like yesterday that problems like this were shrugged off, and the market just kept climbing higher. Perhaps investors risk appetite is waning? Harumph.

Meanwhile, the S&P isn't looking all that well either:


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Higher volume on today's drop, which isn't a good sign. Looks like prices are having trouble clearing that 50 DMA.

Meanwhile, WTIC was up another 1.66% today, but it didn't help. WW, you share my opinion as well; the oil glut is not going to go away anytime soon, IMHO, but there's plenty of manipulation to get prices to bounce around for those in high places to capitalize on.

Two of the oscillators I track have now switched to the bearish camp, and my composite system now reads -1, a mild sell signal. As such, I will most likely head to the sidelines tomorrow, unless we see a large rally early on, which is highly unlikely.

Good luck!

MJR, excellent analysis. What kind of a morning rally, even if it is unlikely, would persuade you to stay in the S Fund? Thanks.

With the Dow up 165 points, and the problems at DB swept under the rug (for now), everything's coming up roses. DB up 14% on the day on massive volume:


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Decided to stay at least one more day, as the first trading day of the month is statistically positive due to 401k money pouring in to fund managers coffers. We'll see if it pans out.

Also, the oscillators I track are all very near their signal lines, so it's difficult to tell which way this train is going to roll. Right now, we sit at +1, a mild buy signal.

Mr Tran and the Nasdaq are both looking strong, so that's to the bulls credit. WTIC continues to climb as well, which is adding fuel to this rally (pun intended).

Good luck!

Originally Posted by airlift

MJR, excellent analysis. What kind of a morning rally, even if it is unlikely, would persuade you to stay in the S Fund? Thanks.

Thanks airlift. It was a surprise, but a complete market reversal of today's strength was enough to keep me in the game at least one more day. Best of luck to you!

Mr Market continues to climb the bearish rising wedge.


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Prices have stayed within the blue box (roughly 4% range) since early July. It's been very difficult to get a read on the market with the oscillators so range bound.

Short term charts provide better trading opportunities, but have also been subject to whipsaws. (Hi WS!).

Mr Tran continues to look strong, as does WTIC, so those are positives for the market. There's still some uncertainty about DB, which is a cautionary flag for stocks, especially banks and financials.

Overall, I'm not expecting any huge market moves up or down until we get a catalyst, such as a Fed rate hike, or blowout earnings from a major company.

Composite system remains at +1, a mild bull signal, so I'll continue to hold the S Fund for now.

Good luck!

We're now getting close to violating that lower trend line that's been in place since February. That would be a big bearish signal.


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Stocks may continue sideways in the blue box, bouncing around, but I think a lot of technical analysts are watching that lower trend line. It could also indicate a failure to re-capture the 50 DMA.

PM's got hammered today with the strengthening dollar and weaker Yen. JNUG down 31% today. Yowza.

The oscillators I track are very near the zero line, but technically read +1-1-1 = -1, a bearish sign, and the +1 is barely positive. Another down day for the markets could move the needle to the fully bearish position, so we'll see how things shake out tomorrow.

Good luck!

Just when things look like we're going to go lower, we get a day like today, and the market gets a reprieve.


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The 60 min chart is showing the range bound market between (roughly) 2120 and 2195. Right now, we're about smack dab in the middle of that range.

Perhaps we'll get some surprising job numbers on Friday that will move the market hard one way or the other. Otherwise, I just don't see what will cause a big move in either direction. Bah humbug.

Oil was up again today, but could be running into resistance very soon. PM's look like they may have formed a bullish hammer formation. We shall see.

I might expect a slight upward bias in the market tomorrow. Composite system is reading +1, but is honestly almost too close to call.

Good luck!

We remain in the box, but the oscillators are looking more dicey.


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Prices are having a difficult time getting above that 50 DMA, which is not a good sign. We closed today literally on that bottom uptrend line. Yikes!

Utilities are trying to make a stand to keep from sliding any further. Mr Tran is looking fairly decent, but the Nasdaq appears to be losing momentum. It's a mixed bag.

PM's were crushed this week with the rising greenback blamed as the prime culprit. JNUG was down over 40% this week. If you're bored with stocks going nowhere, JNUG and JDST might get your heart pumping.

It was surprising to see oil rise in spite of the strong dollar, with WTIC up 3.25% this week. It may run into strong resistance in the 50 - 51 area just above where we are now, so we could see a topping process soon.

Weekly charts all look bearish for stocks, IMHO.

My guess is we see lower prices next week, unless we see stellar earnings. Composite system remains at -1, but could go a full -3 sell signal on another down day. Monday could be a make or break day on whether I stay in any longer.

Good luck!

Another day, another reprieve for the markets. Just when you think it's going lower, it goes higher.


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Once again, we're toying with a number of technical aspects. First of all, we broke above the 50 DMA, only to settle back down below it. We bounced off of the lower trend line, which means we live to fight another day. Smack dab in the middle of the 4% box, so no clues there. Most of the other oscillators are as close to flat as possible.

Earnings should start coming in tomorrow, beginning with AA. Good earnings should lift the market higher, and any big disappointments could cause it to go in the dumpster.

Oil had a big day. WTIC up over 3% today, with a big bullish engulfing candle. See below:


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The next test is the 51.67 high from early June. If we break that convincingly, we could be off to the races. That could be another catalyst for stock prices to move higher, and not just oil companies.

Composite system is now reading +1, but is barely moving the needle either way. I'll stay in for another day, and see how tomorrow pans out. Hopefully we'll get some good earnings, and the market continues to move higher, but we shall see.

Good luck!

Just when the market looks like it's going to move higher, we get a day like today. There were a lot of reasons for today's sell-off. (Unfortunately, there's a glitch in the upload string, so I can't post a chart).

First off, AA reported earnings much lower than expected. The market dumped the stock (-11%), and it cast a pall on other companies about to report earnings.

Secondly, the dollar shot up significantly, which was due to rising interest rates. This will also hurt multinational corporate profits, so more selling ensued.

Third, we've now broken through that lower trend line, which is a red flag, which caused more selling. So we've basically got a snowball gaining traction.

Not surprisingly, today's action threw all my oscillators into negative territory, so the composite now reads -3, a strong sell. I will follow my system, head to the sidelines, and live to fight another day.

Good luck!

A bit of a short term oversold bounce today. (Sorry, still not able to upload a chart). WTIC is hitting resistance as expected. The 51.60 area looks like pretty sold resistance, at least for right now.

Treasury yields continue to climb, as does the dollar. This is continuing to put pressure on PM's, and could be why oil is weakening as well.

On a side note, that P.O.S. CEO for Wells Fargo, Stumpf, (that f stands for something), gets to "retire" with a golden handshake of $137 million smackeroos. It's no wonder people are sick and tired of the Wall Street 1% big whigs.

<end rant>

Composite system remains solidly bearish at -3. Dow futures are down -97 as of this post, and the Nasdaq and S&P are down even more on a percentage basis. We'll see how tomorrow shakes out.

Good luck!

A rough day for the market at the open, but it staged a pretty decent recovery. (Sorry, still can't upload any charts to tsptalk).

Both the S&P and the VIX have penetrated their BB, so we could see a short term technical bounce.

Nasdaq looks like it's beginning to roll over pretty fast, and Mr Tran isn't very far behind.

UUP is taking a much needed breather, so commodities got some reprieve, but I think there's more pain to come in that sector.

Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell.

Good luck!