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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4345

    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wilmington,NC
    Posts
    821

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    [QUOTE=MrJohnRoss;551783]IFT COB today 8/24/16: 100% F Fund.[/QUOTE
    Whaaaaaaaaaaaat..... Heehee

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  3. #4346

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Trouble in Paradise? Today sure was an ugly day for the markets.


    spx.png

    We're still in the 2% range, but the shorter term charts are looking more troubling than the daily chart. Mr VIX was up over 8%, which might be a red flag.

    The real story of the day was PM's and miners. JNUG down almost 24% today. Geez!


    JNUG.png

    Anyone who is looking for some good ol' fashion volatility can find it here. Step right up folks, you might get a chance to catch this bad boy on the rebound.

    Also, for those of you who may not be aware, Direxion is planning both reverse splits, and forward splits on nine leveraged ETF's (including JNUG) tomorrow. Link for more info here.

    Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell signal.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  5. #4347

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    The slow sell-off continues, and momentum continues to wane. Tomorrow may be a make or break day for the markets.

    In the meantime, it looks like AAPL is going to fail the test of 111, as it begins to roll over.


    aapl.png

    Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell signal.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017


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  7. #4348

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Nice pop today, but a slow drop in the last few hours. Regardless, it's 52 ticks higher, but still within the 2.0% band we've been in for over a month.


    spx.png

    Apparently bad news (possible rate hike) is good news, but you never know, next time bad news might be bad news. Go figure.

    AAPL continues it's descent, down another 11 ticks today. Oil also went lower, with WTIC just under $47.

    Today's bump higher in the S&P slowed the descent of the oscillators I follow somewhat, but overall, they're still heading lower. My twitchy VIX system triggered a positive crossover, so we're now at -1, a sell/hold signal.

    September is typically the worst performing month of the year for the markets, so maybe smart money is funneling out the door before we get a more serious pullback. We shall soon find out.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #4349

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Today's drop took away half of yesterday's gain. Still floating around in twilight zone. The markets seem to be coiling for a big move. Which way is anyone's guess, but I'm thinking we'll get a pullback before we head any higher.

    Since we're still within the 2% zone, I thought I'd share some charts other than the S&P.

    One of the stocks doing exceptionally well is AMD.


    amd.png

    AMD took off in Feb, and it hasn't looked back since. How much higher it can go is the big question. Price is above the 20 DMA, which is above the 50 DMA, which is above the 200 DMA. Can't get much stronger than that.

    The elephant in the room continues to be AAPL:


    aapl.png

    Regardless of their tax liability, things have not been going well for AAPL for quite some time, which may not bode well for the markets. A golden cross just occurred, but I think it's all for naught. I don't own it, but if I did, I'd have sold it at the last PPO crossover.

    Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell signal.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #4350

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Does this look like the beginning of a sell-off? Sure seems like it's a good possibility. The Nasdaq has been a big leader during this summer's run-up, but look at it now:


    nasdaq.png

    Okay, we've "only" fallen 62 points from the peak (-1.2%), but take a look at that big dome it's built. Now all it needs to do is finish building the right side of that dome. The PPO had a negative crossover a couple of weeks ago, and it's accelerating to the downside, which is not a good sign.

    My guess is that we're going to the 50 DMA as the first test. Perhaps we'll get a bounce there. If not, there should be good support near the 200.

    Tomorrow's job numbers may jack the market higher, but even if it does, I think it will be a temporary pop, and then we'll continue to slide lower.

    Oil took another big hit today:


    WTIC.png

    Sure looks to me like we're going to go down and re-test that $39 a barrel area again soon. The recent strength in the USD is helping to push commodities lower. Anyone looking to jump on board the JNUG train yet? I'm waiting for the right opportunity.

    Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell signal.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  13. #4351

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    One of the wackiest days for the market in quite some time. Plunged over 100 Dow points early in the day, then made a big comeback to break even for the day. This market can't decide which way it wants to go.

    Oil is continuing it's big sell-off. WTIC is now at $43.16 a barrel. I think the $41 area might offer some support at the 200 DMA. That's still 5% lower from here.


    WTIC.png

    Composite system is now at -3, a strong sell signal. Tomorrow will be interesting. We may see a lot more volatility, so buckle up.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  15. #4352

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Does this look like the beginning of a sell-off? Sure seems like it's a good possibility. The Nasdaq has been a big leader during this summer's run-up, but look at it now:


    nasdaq.png
    Look like a rounded top? or is that still too flat?

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  17. #4353

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Hey Sniper, good question. Perhaps it's in the eye of the beholder, but that PPO sure is heading lower in a rounding fashion. As I stated previously, "Now all it needs to do is finish building the right side of that dome. The PPO had a negative crossover a couple of weeks ago, and it's accelerating to the downside, which is not a good sign. My guess is that we're going to the 50 DMA as the first test. Perhaps we'll get a bounce there. If not, there should be good support near the 200. Tomorrow's job numbers may jack the market higher, but even if it does, I think it will be a temporary pop, and then we'll continue to slide lower."

    We'll see if that comes true next week.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  19. #4354

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Weekly view of the S&P:


    spx.png

    The bubble on top of the bubble looks to be completing it's mini dome. My guess is September will bring more pain than gain, but who knows for sure. The Fed can always resort to "asset purchases" to float the market higher until the election is complete, and maybe continue to bankrupt our children's children to extend this "rainbows and lolipops" economy.

    Market breadth continues to look impressive:


    NYAD.png

    Upward momentum is waning somewhat, but that steep trajectory can't go on forever. Seven months of very strong advances - declines, and no sign of a topping process... yet.

    Okay September, let's see what ya got.

    Composite system is now at -1, a sell/hold.

    Hope everyone has a good Labor Day holiday weekend!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #4355

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Possible head and shoulders pattern developing on the S&P:


    spx.jpg

    A significant break below the neckline could spell trouble for the markets, and a significant rally above the head would negate this pattern.

    It'll be interesting to see how the market behaves over the next couple of days.

    Composite system remains at -1, but a strong push higher over the next couple of days could produce a buy signal.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  23. #4356

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Sam Stovall says historical data shows that the S&P is more likely to drop before it can pop.

    "He notes that during all 20-day periods since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen an average price rise of 0.7%. But after going as few as 10 days without a one-day price drop of 1% or more, the market recorded an average fall over the next 20 days. If the streak of less-than-1% declines extends to 50 days, the index slipped an average 1.5% in the following 20 trading days and fell in price two out of every three times, he observed."

    FYI: We're now at 49 days without a 1% price drop. Make it 50 if we don't drop today.

    Does S&P 500 need to
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017


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