Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Looks like it gapped up and out the top of the box... now what? I think they're still cooking the books on these numbers...

Now what indeed.

We (finally) have lift-off. 60 minute chart:


spx.png

A couple of things to note: We first had a head fake down to the 2147 area. Now we've closed above the box near 2183. Is this another head fake, and will the market settle back into the box, or is this move higher for real?

One positive point is that the market closed at the high of the day (HOD). Can't get much more bullish than that. Mr VIX collapsed all the way down to 11.39, and has triggered a buy signal as part of my composite system. (It's usually the fastest oscillator, but can lead to false signals). My other oscillators are still in "sell" range, but another positive day could push them into the green.

One day at a time. Let's see how things shape up on Monday.

Composite system is now at -1, a mild sell signal.

My concern: The worst thing about the VIX is that it closed outside it's lower Bollinger Band which could indicate some pullback before a continuation on to 2200.

Otherwise, the conditions still look good out there..

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

My concern: The worst thing about the VIX is that it closed outside it's lower Bollinger Band which could indicate some pullback before a continuation on to 2200.

Otherwise, the conditions still look good out there..

FS

Well said FS. The VIX is ridiculously low. It's like sailing on seas as smooth as glass - we know eventually the sailing is going to change for the worse.

I like to look at the longer term charts on the weekend. Here's a weekly view of the S&P:


SPX Weekly.png

Even though we haven't had strong momentum the last few weeks, the trend has definitely been up. The PPO is looking very healthy, and the RSI is only moderately high at 65.

Perhaps the "invisible hand" will move the markets higher through election day to make sure everything seems good and prosperous. Eventually the ugly truth will come out, but until then, enjoy the ride.

10 minute chart of the S&P showing that we're in another tight range.


spx.jpg

With the strong bounce in oil, you would think that the markets would be rocketing higher, but that's not the case.

Daily view of USO:


uso.png

Oil is getting it's oversold bounce from an RSI that dipped below 30. Apparently, there is "speculation" that the next OPEC meeting might result in an "attempt to stabilize the oil market". Good luck with that. The last time OPEC met, it was a total catastrophe, because the Iranian's and Saudi's couldn't agree on a damn thing. Oh well, give it the 'ol college try I guess.

None of the oscillators I track changed position, therefore my composite system remains at -1, a mild sell signal.

Another day, another tight range. 60 minute chart:


spx.png

Nasdaq is looking strong, but Mr Tran has bounced up and down and round and round since mid March, going nowhere. The Dow had one good day (Friday) in the last few weeks; other than that it's done a whole lot of nothing.

Keeping my eye on WTIC (USO). I think it may hold the key to which way the market goes.

Composite system remains at -1, a mild sell signal.

10 minute chart showing declining tops:


spx.jpg

Apparently, all the hoopla about yesterday's new all time high at 2187 was quickly forgotten. Oil still seems to be the main driver of this market, at least for the moment.

Chart of USO:


uso.png

Looks to me like the bounce that occurred last week was of the dead cat variety. The big gap higher on Monday has now been filled, and things are looking bearish for oil at the moment, which may not be a good sign for stocks. Even today's drop in the USD didn't help oil, but did help other commodities, especially metals.

My twitchy VIX system has now triggered a sell signal, which puts my composite system at -3, a strong sell signal.

Just a short update this evening, as I had an injury today, and am in a great deal of pain. The market eeked out a new high, but my composite system remains at -3. Oil bounced higher on speculation that OPEC members might want to seek a deal on putting a cap on production. That's all it took... speculation. I think we all know that the odds of them agreeing to curbing production is next to nil. Ah well, onwards and upwards. Tally ho.

Hope you recover quickly.

Hoping for a quick recovery from your injury.