Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Agree that it appears we will probably see some pullback and consolidation until the next FOMC meeting which is July 27th. The caveat is that the Yen isn't devalued further. I understand from other sites that the BoJ, EU banks, and BoE are expected to further cut rates. That should push markets higher for a while longer. What an interesting summer.

FS

All Time Highs - The Burning Platform

"... The market topped out in May of 2015 at 2,126. Since then, corporate profits have been in freefall, consumer spending has been in the toilet, GDP has been barely positive, and virtually every economic indicator has been falling. Valuations are now higher than at the 1929, 2000, and 2007 peaks..."

"... For all I know the stock market could continue to rip higher. Madness knows no bounds. The general public is not involved in this madness. They were wiped out twice in the space of eight years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces have been unable to lure the average Joe back into the casino because the average Joe has been impoverished by Fed policies designed to benefit the .1%. The Wall Street lemming herd has gone mad, but I'm not sure they will recover their senses before they burn the entire demented financial system to the ground. But enjoy the all-time highs while they last".

Weekly view of the market:


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Mr Market hit the launching pad immediately after Brexit, and hasn't looked back since. The nice, even, rounded dome has suddenly been pierced by a skyward rocketing stock market. Never mind that there's no logical reason for it, other than CB manipulation.

At this point, we're now outside the upper BB, which should bring caution to traders. RSI is high at 64, but it's been higher in the past, and still kept rising, so chew on that for a while.

My gut instincts after looking at the 60 min, daily, and weekly charts tell me that we're most likely due for a pullback next week, IMHO.

Good luck to everyone next week.

Looks like momentum is waning.


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Mostly flat the last two days. Someone needs to give the bull some Red Bull. Chief? Where are you?

Mike Burk said it well: "The major indices have been up 8% - 10% in the last 12 trading days. Central Banks have been using BREXIT as an excuse to flood their deteriorating economies with even more liquidity. All of the financial markets may be in a blow off. I cannot imagine how this can end well".

A closer look (10 min) at the last few days shows that the market has been stuck in "the box".


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Just not enough "umph" to go any higher at this point. With the PMO falling, and momentum waning, odds would suggest a pullback is on the way, IMHO. There are several obvious gaps that need to get filled in this chart.

Composite system remains at +3. So far, my mechanical composite system is doing much better than MJR, who has put emotion into his trading decision making. Lesson here: don't make the same mistakes I've made, learn from mine. It's easier than having to make them yourself.

Usually my VIX system is the first to signal a change in direction. So far, Mr VIX is behaving very quietly, sitting below 12 now. Won't take much to twitch him higher. We shall see...

Good luck!

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

A closer look (10 min) at the last few days shows that the market has been stuck in "the box".


spx.jpg


Just not enough "umph" to go any higher at this point. With the PMO falling, and momentum waning, odds would suggest a pullback is on the way, IMHO. There are several obvious gaps that need to get filled in this chart.

Composite system remains at +3. So far, my mechanical composite system is doing much better than MJR, who has put emotion into his trading decision making. Lesson here: don't make the same mistakes I've made, learn from mine. It's easier than having to make them yourself.

Usually my VIX system is the first to signal a change in direction. So far, Mr VIX is behaving very quietly, sitting below 12 now. Won't take much to twitch him higher. We shall see...

Good luck!

Not anymore.

Out of the box to the upside. That area could provide strong support if/when we get a pullback.


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MSFT helped the Dow and Nasdaq today. Earnings haven't been as bad as many analysts have expected, so there's some relief there.

What will be the catalyst tomorrow?

Looks like yesterday was a possible fake-out instead of a break-out.


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We're now back in the box (support area). Note the PMO, which continues to trend lower. Sure looks like a topping process is taking shape.

Of course, with the banksters at the controls, you never know when they'll suddenly flood the market with buy orders, so keep that in mind.

The VIX system (finally) moved to a sell signal. That puts the composite system at +1, a mild buy (caution) signal.

Good luck!

Updated weekly view of the market:


SPX Weekly.png

The launching pad continues. There doesn't appear to be anything stopping this market from going higher. Banksters around the world are pumping as much as possible to keep their economies afloat. Don't fight the Fed? When it will all end is anyone's guess, but it's likely to get ugly. In the meantime, as the Cars sang; "Let the Good Times Roll".

Looking in our rear view mirror, we always have 20/20 vision. Here's what I said on 6/27, at the depths of the "Brexit" crisis: "We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah."

Looking back, that would have been an ideal spot to jump on board, as we've now moved higher by over 9% from that low. The fear of the EU disintigrating held me back. Damned logic.

Remember the olden days, (just a couple of months ago), when the markets were tied to the price of oil? Not anymore. USO has fallen 16% since June 8. And the market? Up 2.6%.

So the credit bubble continues. Enjoy the ride.

Good luck next week!

Updated short term (10 min) chart of the S&P:


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I've expanded the box to contain the consolidation period from July 14. We're now at a full eight trading days contained in this zone. So which way are we going to break out of the box, up or down?

My guess is down, and here's why...

Note that the PMO is continuing it's move lower. Also note that the two EMA's (60 and 180) are looking more and more like they're getting ready to cross, which would be short term bearish.

The Fed may have something to say about which way the market goes, so who really knows for sure.

On a side note, funny how yesterday I was just talking about oil not affecting the markets anymore, and lo and behold... today's drop was attributed mainly to the continued drop in oil prices. Go figure.

One last note: The percentage of stocks in the S&P with rising PMO's is now only 57%, and falling. Compare that with about 87% just two weeks ago.

Composite system remains at +1. Be careful out there.

Daily view of the S&P:


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With the market going sideways again today, it's interesting to note that the daily PPO is looking like a bearish crossover is about to occur in the very near future. It continues to appear that momentum is waning.

With that being said, AAPL reported better than expected earnings after the bell, even though quarterly profit fell 27%. AAPL should give a pop to the market, but then what? Maybe the Fed's "no interest rate hike" will cause the markets to soar?

Oil continues to slide lower. Dollar continues to look like it's strengthening, which is hurting commodities. DUST is coming alive. The basing pattern in DWTI is looking like big moves are in the works.

Composite system remains at +1. Just biding my time, waiting for the next cycle...