Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Mr Market cut through 2025 like a hot knife through butter.


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The plunge protection team was activated when it dipped below 2000, and the 1990-2000 area became the battle line for the day.

We're now deeply oversold, with an RSI of 26 on the hourly short term chart, and it was even lower earlier today. I would expect a bounce soon, probably tomorrow, but dead cats don't bounce too far. I thought of going long tomorrow (on a very short term basis, like a day or two) to take advantage of a possible bounce, but it would be a total crapshoot. Nah.

The daily chart (below) reminds me of last August, and possibly like this January, when we went over the waterfall.


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There's a lot of technical damage, and it won't be patched up in a day or two. This will take weeks of up and down moves (mostly down) before we know when an intermediate term bottom is in place. We blew right through the 200 day, and the next possible support is the 50% Fib retracement. Good luck with that. I'm guessing we at least test the 62% Fib, if not all the way back down near the February lows near 1810. We should find much more support there.

F Fund has been the place to be, but right now is too risky to buy in for my tastes. AGG had two days with gaps higher, and the RSI is now over 71. We're also pushing outside the upper Bollinger, so a cool down is in the cards, IMHO.

The strengthening dollar is holding back commodities, esp oil. WTIC just cut through it's 50 DMA, something it hasn't done since Feb. Look out below.

These sure are interesting times. I hope very few of you are losing money during this market rout.

Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell.

I would say if your anywhere in positive territory your doing good.... Happy trading,sitting, or ready to jump in or out....

Yeah, unfortunately it looks like 2/3 of us on the AT are negative for the year.

Originally Posted by GUCHI

I would say if your anywhere in positive territory your doing good.... Happy trading,sitting, or ready to jump in or out....

MJR, allow me to use your thread to ask you and anyone else, now that the market is open, whether it is more likely than not to see this rally continue to end just before the 4th of July festivities? Tia. Best wishes to all!

My vote is for a DCB to allay the rampant fear out there followed by more downward action to fleece the suckers who jump in thinking the worst is over.

Originally Posted by Cactus

My vote is for a DCB to allay the rampant fear out there followed by more downward action to fleece the suckers who jump in thinking the worst is over.

You may be right. Bottom of box support to bottom of box resistance:

Originally Posted by Cactus

My vote is for a DCB to allay the rampant fear out there followed by more downward action to fleece the suckers who jump in thinking the worst is over.

Cactus, I agree. The news was reporting the 'markets have stabilized' after the BREXIT vote... ; Back in Feb, at the second point in the double bottom, reports indicated another 10-15% down, at which point it rallied for about that much. So... yes, if reports say 'stabilized', I think there is more down side. :-/

Originally Posted by airlift

MJR, allow me to use your thread to ask you and anyone else, now that the market is open, whether it is more likely than not to see this rally continue to end just before the 4th of July festivities? Tia. Best wishes to all!

I would be very surprised if today's rally was anything more than a short term oversold bounce. IMHO, we should have more downside in the coming days and weeks.

Plunge protection team went to work again today. Their orders are to "keep that bubble afloat, and don't let it pop!"


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So the short term (60 min) market picture has improved after two days of bloodletting. PPO and Stoch have relieved their oversold pressure, and the RSI is now centered at 49. Notice how we rallied up to the 2025 area and stopped for a few hours? I found that very interesting. Then just to show 'em who's boss, da boyz even punctuated it by going above it in the final two hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see another day or two of stabilization, as the big money boys need to window dress their portfolios to make 'em look real purdy for the end of the quarter. I'd be surprised to see this rally go above 2050. Previous support usually provides resistance.

The daily chart still looks bearish.


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That's a mild bounce off of the 38% retracement level. Will it hold? I doubt it, but anything is possible. There seems to be less shock and fear about the breakup of the EU as the days go by, even though we all know it ain't gonna be pretty.

Banks, insurance companies, and brokers look like they've suffered the worst. The drop in interest rates is cutting out their profits.

Speaking of interest rates, the 10 year treasury is now down to 1.46%, it's lowest level in four years. I don't think it will be long before we're at all time low interest rates. ZIRP isn't out of the question at some point in the future.

Short term VIX oscillator had a bullish crossing today, as the VIX dropped 21%. That puts my composite system at -1, a mild sell signal.

Futures are up strong this morning, does that change your outlook for passing 2050? Is it possible we revisit previous highs?

WS, it sure is surprising to see this much strength in the markets across the globe. Apparently the central bankers aren't gonna fool around to ensure that they "stabilize the markets at any cost".


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