Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Mr Market got a bit too oversold right at the open (RSI below 30), so traders jumped on it.


spx.png

That brought the market climbing back throughout the rest of the day. I'm still believing that this is a counter-trend rally, and we'll have more downside to go, but the market likes to surprise us, so be prepared for high volatility.

Bond yields continue to sink, and the F Fund is reaping the benefits. I'd be cautious about buying in at this point, with the RSI at 75 for AGG. The "hot engine" light is flashing red, so be careful, or you might get burned.

agg.png

Today's falling VIX has caused a bullish crossover for my VIX system (ultra short term), but my composite system still reads -1, so I'll hold short (cash).

Mr Market dropped, then staged a recovery. We now have a series of higher lows and higher highs over the last two days on the hourly chart.


spx.png

Apparently, the attack on the young MP in England has caused the markets to think Brexit might be delayed or voted down. The countertrend move in oil also helped the markets, although the Nasdaq is sucking wind and looking awfully weak.

In any event, if we go much higher on Monday, it could trigger a short term buy signal. I'm still expecting a test of the 2025 level. It's just taking a more circuitous route than was expected.

For the week, we moved down (-1.19%) which was expected. Prices remain under the massive dome.


spx.png

Next week will be a fun one to watch. If Brexit gets voted down, I expect the markets to shoot up like a rocket, possibly 2-300 points on the Dow. If it goes the other way, it could be a long road of uncertainty lower for the markets all summer.

Composite timing system remains at -1, hold short.

You Are Here - The Burning Platform


..."The current crisis revolves around the core elements of debt, civic decay and global disorder. The 2008 global financial crisis, manufactured by the Fed and their Wall Street puppeteers, was catalyzed by hundreds of billions in bad debt issued as part of the largest control fraud scheme in world history. The brunt of this banker formulated disaster has been borne by the former working middle class and senior citizens dependent upon interest income to survive in an inflationary world. The initial threat of full-fledged collapse was deferred through extreme monetary and fiscal actions by the establishment vassals, as they created trillions in new debt to fill the vortex produced by the trillions in bad debt...."

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

You Are Here - The Burning Platform


..."The current crisis revolves around the core elements of debt, civic decay and global disorder. The 2008 global financial crisis, manufactured by the Fed and their Wall Street puppeteers, was catalyzed by hundreds of billions in bad debt issued as part of the largest control fraud scheme in world history. The brunt of this banker formulated disaster has been borne by the former working middle class and senior citizens dependent upon interest income to survive in an inflationary world. The initial threat of full-fledged collapse was deferred through extreme monetary and fiscal actions by the establishment vassals, as they created trillions in new debt to fill the vortex produced by the trillions in bad debt...."

Well that was uplifting. .... Yikes! Think I'll turn on Seinfeld or Andy of Mayberry.

Another pop and drop day. The question now is, was that a "suckers rally" designed to get novice traders to buy in at the open, and then slowly suck the money out of their pockets all day long, or was that the start of a stronger trend higher?


spx.png

This rally seems suspect to me, esp since we gave back half of the days gains by the EOD. Not a good sign. Perhaps the market is anticipating a Brexit "stay" vote, and is pricing it ahead of time. If so, we may not see as much of a rally on Friday if indeed that's the vote. Even though I took out my black arrows, I'm still of the opinion that we'll test 2025 before too long.

Short term oscillators went bullish at the open, but my main oscillators remain at -1, a hold short.

Just a quick observation for the S&P:


spx.png

Everyone's waiting to see what happens this Thursday. In the meantime, note the negative divergences between the price highs in the daily chart from April and June, where we had higher highs a few weeks ago. Note that the RSI and PPO had lower highs during that same time frame. Nothing is guaranteed, but it does show some softening in momentum oscillators. I think any future price highs would be short lived.

Also of note is how AGG (F Fund) has had three down days after reaching extremes on it's RSI reading. However, if Brexit materializes, AGG could skyrocket.

Composite system remains at -1, but a strong up day could trip it over to a +1 as the PMO system is close to the trigger line.

A small drop in the markets today, but Mr VIX sure did rocket higher. It was enough to send my VIX timing model into a sell mode. That makes my composite system reading a -3, a strong sell.

Hmmm... interesting, as market futures are higher tonight, so we may have a positive day tomorrow. Friday may be the day there are fireworks for the market.

Don't look now, but the Dow futures are down 531 points and falling. S&P futures down 75 points. Nikkei futures down a whopping 1285 points. Why? Brexit may become a reality.

Yahoo! Isn't that what Slim Pickens said waving his hat atom the descending A-bomb in Dr. Strangelove?
Hail to Britannia and sanity!
This might be a tough day financially but glad to pay up for a victory against Socialism and a hopeful evasion or delay of another 200 million lives.

Hopefully today will be a great buying opportunity, or the next week. What do you think?

Thanks for the good work and sharing that you do!

Originally Posted by pmaloney

Yahoo! Isn't that what Slim Pickens said waving his hat atom the descending A-bomb in Dr. Strangelove?
Hail to Britannia and sanity!
This might be a tough day financially but glad to pay up for a victory against Socialism and a hopeful evasion or delay of another 200 million lives.

Hopefully today will be a great buying opportunity, or the next week. What do you think?

Thanks for the good work and sharing that you do!

I think the odds are high that we see a great buying opportunity in the near future. Be careful, it could be a dead cat bounce though.

Everyone, including the markets, was shocked by the Brexit vote. Yesterday closed at the HOD, and it wasn't long after closing that the results starting coming in, and the futures started tanking.


spx.png


The 60 min chart shows how the market went from overbought (RSI @ 70) to oversold (RSI @ 27) in one day. Amazing.

Yes, we're oversold, and we may have a bounce on Monday, but my guess is that any bounce would be of the dead cat variety. A test of 2025 is all but assured at this point, and we may blow right through it.

The daily chart shows today's candle slicing right through the 50 day. There's possible support at the 200 DMA, which is around 2020. Not very far, so I think it will be taken out as well.


spx.png

A 50% Fib retracement from the Feb low to the June high would put another possible support around 1965, and a 62% retracement would put us at 1929. I think we'll be lucky if the slide stops there.

Composite system remains at -3, a strong sell, which is not a surprise.