Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Hourly S&P update:


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As I said in my previous post: "Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend rally attempt to tag the upper channel line over the next few days."

Well, that didn't take long, did it? Yesterday's close brought us to an overbought condition (RSI over 70), which is a warning bell that a pullback was due. So today we got the pullback, which was not a surprise.

So where do we go from here? Obviously we won't stay in this channel forever, and we've been contained between the lines for almost three weeks now. It really could go either way on a day to day basis, but if I had to wager a guess, it looks like we're still in a downtrend based on the longer term charts (daily and weekly). Mr Tran is also looking very weak, and he's a market leader. Nasdaq had a nice three day run, but it's also making a series of lower highs, so I'm expecting lower lows to follow. My systems are reading (-1-1+1) = -1, a mild sell signal. The next couple of days could determine if there is a trend change, or if we continue to move lower.

Thanks MJR, as I got out the other day (a day early in hindsight), I now feel like I'm in some sort of alignment with the market action. Great analysis, thanks again.

Update on Mr TRAN:


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Trannies continue to sink lower. Brutal day today. If consumers aren't buying, then the transportation of those goods are going to decline. I think that's what this chart is saying. Politicians like to spin it that "everything is just fine", and "we've made tremendous progress decreasing the unemployment rate"... yada yada yada. Whata bunch of BS.

Anyway, where was I before I got sidetracked? Oh yeah. Mr TRAN...

I've shown this chart before, but we're very close to a major breakdown. If Mr TRAN breaks that 7600 dotted line decisively, the markets could run for cover. My guess is that it's not a matter of "if", just a matter of "when".

My three systems remain at (-1-1+1) = -1, a mild sell signal. Only the VIX timing system remains bullish.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Thanks MJR, as I got out the other day (a day early in hindsight), I now feel like I'm in some sort of alignment with the market action. Great analysis, thanks again.

Thank you WS. Hope you find it interesting.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Update on Mr TRAN:
If Mr TRAN breaks that 7600 dotted line decisively, the markets could run for cover. My guess is that it's not a matter of "if", just a matter of "when".

WHEN is TODAY! 7500 at 1400 EDT.

Update on Mr TRAN:


TRAN.png

Like DaddyTin said, the "when" was today. However, we're starting to get a little oversold (see RSI), but we could drop even further to get that RSI to a nice healthy 25 range before we get a bounce. The 50% Fib retracement would put it around 7275. We'll take it day by day...

My system count is now (-1-1-1) = -3, a strong sell signal.

Two year chart of AAPL:


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AAPL's been in a downtrend since the middle of last year, and could never decisively break that $130 level. Looks like a massive head and shoulders formation. The 50 DMA has stayed below the 200 (death cross) since late Aug of last year.

The $90 area has been hit three times in the last year, and has (so far) managed to bounce back. We're obviously deeply oversold (RSI and PPO), so I would expect a bounce soon. That might be a good time to lighten up on your holdings, as AAPL seems to be making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Perhaps that big gap will get filled, and we'll get a bounce up to the 100-105 range.

Updated daily S&P:


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Sure looks to me like we're making a rounded topping pattern, so I'm expecting further downside over the coming weeks, with occasional countertrend rallies to keep everyone guessing. RSI is fairly neutral (44), so we've got a long way to go to be oversold. PPO had a bearish crossover several weeks ago, but is still in positive territory, so again, we're not nearly oversold, and could have a long way to go.

Looking at the Fib ratios, we could fall to 1996 (38.2%), 1960 (50%), or even 1925 (61.8%). Those would be the 1st, 2nd and 3rd targets I would expect to the downside.

Longer term (weekly) view of the S&P:


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We're now in the season where stocks typically don't perform very well, especially the 4th yr of the presidential cycle. This large rounding top formation will take a long time to complete, with up weeks and down weeks, but it sure appears to me that the major trend is currently down. RSI and PPO have a long way to go before getting to oversold, so there is plenty of room to the downside. I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of big red candles in the coming weeks. Worst case scenario would be possibly re-testing the Feb and last Aug lows. Eventually we may fall even further later this year, which I think is a good probability.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Longer term (weekly) view of the S&P:


spx.png

We're now in the season where stocks typically don't perform very well, especially the 4th yr of the presidential cycle. This large rounding top formation will take a long time to complete, with up weeks and down weeks, but it sure appears to me that the major trend is currently down. RSI and PPO have a long way to go before getting to oversold, so there is plenty of room to the downside. I wouldn't be surprised to see plenty of big red candles in the coming weeks. Worst case scenario would be possibly re-testing the Feb and last Aug lows. Eventually we may fall even further later this year, which I think is a good probability.

The chart I have on election cycle vs Dow shows this June through next June as a good uptrend with the October dip. Saisonalität :: SeasonalCharts.de

But this year could be more difficult with the Fed tightening possible.

Originally Posted by clester

The chart I have on election cycle vs Dow shows this June through next June as a good uptrend with the October dip. Saisonalität :: SeasonalCharts.de

But this year could be more difficult with the Fed tightening possible.

We have nothing to worry about clester. The global economy will continue to go down the toilet, so the Fed will keep interest rates low. Bad news is really good news! *tongue in cheek*