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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4189

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Chart of the dollar index (UUP):


    uup.png

    UUP broke important long term support today at 24.20. There's a lot of dead space below it. The falling dollar should help commodities and commodity related stocks.

    As expected, the markets had a positive day for the first trading day of the month. It will be key to see how well it does over the rest of the week. I'm thinking it's just a bump in the road on it's way down. Nasdaq has some pretty negative momentum here, even though it rose today.

    nasdaq.png

    I'm still holding on to the theory of a negative week for stocks. All three systems remain at (-1-1-1) = -3, a strong sell signal.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. #4190

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Updated Nasdaq chart:


    nasdaq.png

    Down another 54 points today, and down a whopping 206 points from it's 4/20 high. (Ha! 4/20 high - no pun intended).

    We can kiss the 50 DMA goodbye. Next level of support is near 4700, where the first Fib ratio lies.

    You may have seen the article about Tesla Motors (TSLA) stock being ridiculously valued at $620,000 per car it delivered last year. It's valuation is roughly 125 times the next 12 months of expected earnings. I'm surprised the stock didn't climb higher on the news, the way irrational exuberance has been flowing around the market these days. For some strange reason, the stock fell almost 4% today, and should help bring the Nasdaq down further. Anyone watching this stock should have seen the overvalued RSI, and then the PPO crossover to save them from it's downfall.

    tsla.png
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  5. #4191

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Interesting! David Gardner of The Motley Fool was on Wealthtrack last week sounding a BUY on Tesla Motors. I guess we were the fool if we took him up on that.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  7. #4192

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Interesting! David Gardner of The Motley Fool was on Wealthtrack last week sounding a BUY on Tesla Motors. I guess we were the fool if we took him up on that.
    Those Motley Fools are about as worthless as Jim Kramer. None are ever right about anything.
    Is today Saturday again?

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  9. #4193

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    60 minute S&P:


    spx.png

    I've drawn a parallel price channel with the top line connecting the lower highs from the 4/20 high. A couple of oversold RSI areas (below 30) brought some buyers in, but only temporarily. The trend is definitely down. Since we're mildly oversold, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a short term bounce here. A break above or below these lines would be a game changer (unless we drift sideways at some point). We'll take it a day at a time. For now, my systems are still at (-1-1-1) = -3, a strong sell signal.

    BTW, TSLA lost another 4.2% today. It also looks like AAPL may be trying to form a base around 92, which is a strong support area. Note the very oversold RSI level.

    aapl.png
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #4194

    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wilmington,NC
    Posts
    821

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Aapl has been a dog here lately, I want out when the right time comes, whatever that might be. Thanks for info


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  13. #4195

    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    81

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Interesting! David Gardner of The Motley Fool was on Wealthtrack last week sounding a BUY on Tesla Motors. I guess we were the fool if we took him up on that.
    More like Motley Idiots...

    Sent from my Droid Turbo using TapaTalk

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  15. #4196

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Mr Tran:


    TRAN.png

    Although the Dow & S&P were basically flat today, the market leader, Mr Tran, is looking very tired, and sagged lower today. A couple of things to note:

    1) The oversold RSI in January (circled in green) was a clue that an upturn was about to take place < note to self: pay attention to these signals! >
    2) After the nice run up to mid March, we got an overbought RSI warning (circled in red).
    3) After a little pull-back, Mr Tran attempted to go even higher, but ran out of steam. Notice the divergence between the higher price highs and the lower PPO highs, which was a warning sign. Also note that the RSI got near the 70 warning line again, so look out below!
    4) So now we're getting a pretty steep sell-off, and it blew right through the 50 DMA. I'd watch the level near 7624 (dashed black line) as a possible support area. If that fails, look for a possible 50% Fib retracement near 7277.

    And just for the fun of it, let's take a look at how TSLA is doing:

    tsla.png

    Now THAT'S what I call a steep drop off a cliff! (Tell me again who was saying to buy this stock a few days ago???)

    BTW, the 50% retracement level is around 205 (not very far away), but the heavy downward momentum may take it to the 61.8% level, which is around 190.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  17. #4197

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by GUCHI View Post
    Aapl has been a dog here lately, I want out when the right time comes, whatever that might be. Thanks for info

    Don't worry Guchi, you'll get your chance, with a nice profit. Patience.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  19. #4198

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Busy weekend, and busy week ahead. Here's a quick look at the weekly view of the S&P:


    SPX Weekly.png

    If you look at this chart like the path of a roller coaster, you can see the big rounding top from 2013-2015, followed by the Aug 2015 multi-week stomach wrenching downturn, then another slow climb higher, and another steep drop-off in January of this year.

    If you had to guess what's gonna happen next on your roller coaster ride, (looking at the last couple of weeks), what do you think might happen? Think you're gonna go higher, or lower?

    Wheeeee!!!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #4199

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Hello Mr. John Ross. I like your chart. Looks like it will go down.
    If I could only rely on ONE indicator per chart, I easily would choose to rely on the Full Stochastic (or even Slow Stochastic) on a WEEKLY chart as indicator for direction; while I think the MACD is best indicator on the DAILY charts. But of course I always look at Bollinger Bands, price, band slopes; and also the daily EMAs (10,20,50,100) and their slopes as well .... plus now look to PVO on SPX and Tran. Also, like to hear Chris Ciovacco weekly take on the tons of comparisons he makes of sectors, equities to bonds, defensive/discretionary stocks to non-discretionary, etc.

    Thank you for the chart posts!!! Best wishes to you!
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  23. #4200

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Hello Mr. John Ross. I like your chart. Looks like it will go down.
    If I could only rely on ONE indicator per chart, I easily would choose to rely on the Full Stochastic (or even Slow Stochastic) on a WEEKLY chart as indicator for direction; while I think the MACD is best indicator on the DAILY charts. But of course I always look at Bollinger Bands, price, band slopes; and also the daily EMAs (10,20,50,100) and their slopes as well .... plus now look to PVO on SPX and Tran. Also, like to hear Chris Ciovacco weekly take on the tons of comparisons he makes of sectors, equities to bonds, defensive/discretionary stocks to non-discretionary, etc.

    Thank you for the chart posts!!! Best wishes to you!
    Thanks DBA, I like it when you talk tech to me. (Hahaha). I like Ciovacco's analysis, but sometimes his voice puts me to sleep!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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