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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4177

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    AGG (F Fund) had a large bearish engulfing candle today.


    Attachment 37987

    As I stated on 4/7: "Looking at the chart, perhaps AGG is getting a bit too hot, as the RSI is now over 75. Wouldn't be surprised to see a cool down in the next few days, just to unwind the overbought condition. The same thing happened back in Feb, when the RSI got too high, AGG went sideways for a few weeks."

    As it turned out, that was the high for AGG as of this writing. Down 24 ticks today, which is pretty good sized for the bond fund.

    S&P looked pretty good all day... except for that final hour, when the rug got pulled out from underneath it. That created a spinning top formation on the daily chart, which indicates indecision and a possible short term reversal.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. #4178

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    The new 20 spot. Get used to it.
    Attachment 37986
    My wife works as a cashier and what bugs her is that they don't pull the old stuff out of circulation when they introduce a new design. There have been so many new designs lately that you get 4 or 5 in circulation at the same time. You get the new big picture one, old small picture one, old green one, new yellow one, and all the holographic new seal and security strip ones. That doesn't include all the kids hitting their dad's collection for the really old stuff like silver certificates.

    Lately there have been counterfit $10s going around and the counterfiters have figured out how to get them to pass the brown pen check.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  5. #4179

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    My wife works as a cashier and what bugs her is that they don't pull the old stuff out of circulation when they introduce a new design. There have been so many new designs lately that you get 4 or 5 in circulation at the same time. You get the new big picture one, old small picture one, old green one, new yellow one, and all the holographic new seal and security strip ones. That doesn't include all the kids hitting their dad's collection for the really old stuff like silver certificates.

    Lately there have been counterfit $10s going around and the counterfiters have figured out how to get them to pass the brown pen check.

    Yup, I hear ya, but it would be pretty difficult to round up every $20 bill that wasn't current and get them all out of circulation.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  7. #4180

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    A look at oil (USO):


    uso.png

    Looks to me like USO may be making a double top. We can never count on anything 100%, but there is a divergence between the two highs in the 10.80 range, and the PPO indicator, which is quite a bit lower during this second peak (down sloping blue line). A fair counter argument is that the RSI is roughly the same for both peaks. Fair enough.

    Fundamentally speaking, there is more oil being pumped out of the ground than there is usage, so prices SHOULD be going lower. But it doesn't matter what I think, or what the fundamentals are. Prices are going to go where they must go, so watch your charts carefully. We should find out in short order if this turns out to be a double top, or just a pause on the way higher.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #4181

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Long term monthly chart of the market:

    spx.jpg

    Seems that the market is struggling to make higher highs this week. We're in the resistance area of the previous highs from last November, so cautious investors are cashing out. We've got one more week to see how the final monthly candle prints on this chart. So far we're up 1.5% for the month, but anything can happen between now and next Friday. Short term momentum seems to be waning. Longer term, as viewed from this chart, suggests it may be wise to remain cautious.

    Last October had a big white candle with an 8% gain which took it over the 12 month MA. That was followed by a flat November, which was followed by three big down months.

    This year, we had March with a big white candle with a 6% gain which again took it over the 12 MMA. It's possible we may finish out this month flat or with another very small gain. How the month finishes may be an omen to how the next few months play out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to lower lows for stocks over the next few months.

    USO is struggling to make new highs. The dollar looks like it may be strengthening. I'll be keeping my eye on the Fed for Hawkish clues, as well as a possibly strengthening dollar and how oil plays out next week.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #4182

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    A quick look at the German DAX:


    DAX.png

    The DAX and the S&P are highly correlated, even though the DAX has not had nearly the rebound this year that the S&P had. While the S&P is up near last November's high, the DAX is still about 10% below last November's high. Many experts believe that our markets are WAY over priced in terms of current P/E ratio's.

    If the German market rolls over here, like it appears to be doing, it could foretell what may happen here as well. Just something to keep your eye on.

    All three of my systems are now is sell mode (-1-1-1) = -3 a strong sell signal. Surprised to see bond yields rising with this weak market. The F Fund should be doing better than it is. Hopefully this screwy market will straighten up and act rationally soon. (Hahaha - yeah right).
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  13. #4183

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Chart of AAPL:


    aapl.png

    AAPL had a nice run up from the February lows around 92, but it got extended too far when the RSI warned of a top. Sure enough, one last push to the 112 area, and the goody balloon popped, as evidenced by the bearish engulfing candle, followed by a gap down, and lower lows every day since. Tomorrow will likely see another (big) gap down, which will of course bring down the Nasdaq and S&P. The chart of AAPL looks very bearish, with the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA, and the complete failure of prices even coming close to reaching it's highs from last November near 122.

    Sellers may come out early tomorrow, but we'll have to see how the rest of the day plays out. Whether or not big money comes in to buy shares will be the key. Of course, Cook and company may spend a few billion propping up their shares, so anything is possible. My guess is we're likely to test the previous lows in the 92 area. If it can't hold there, AAPL is cooked. (Pun intended). Not a good omen for the market in general.

    My three systems remain at (-1-1-1) = -3, a strong sell signal.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  15. #4184

    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wilmington,NC
    Posts
    821

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    MJR thanks for the info. I am directly affected by this downfall. It sure looks ugly, but Apple has been ify for awhile now. Good luck to all those APPL holders.

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  17. #4185

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    15 minute chart of AAPL. As expected, a quick plunge at the open, a slow rise higher, followed by slowly sinking prices and a flat line the rest of the day. This isn't just happening to AAPL. Take a look at the daily charts of tech giants GOOGL and NFLX. They've already fallen off the cliff, and might be a road map for what happens to AAPL.


    aapl.png
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017


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  19. #4186

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Sure looks like the markets are beginning to roll over. Nowhere is this more evident than with the Nasdaq:


    nasdaq.png

    The first level of support might be the 50 DMA. After that, the Fib ratios are close to 4700, 4600, and 4500.

    Sell in May and go away just might be good advice.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #4187

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    3,651

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Sure looks like the markets are beginning to roll over. Nowhere is this more evident than with the Nasdaq:


    nasdaq.png

    The first level of support might be the 50 DMA. After that, the Fib ratios are close to 4700, 4600, and 4500.

    Sell in May and go away just might be good advice.
    Or it could be contrarian.

    But love (well, really like) your posts John. Keep them coming.

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  23. #4188

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Monthly long term chart of the S&P:


    spx.jpg

    After all the hoopla, April turned out to be a dud performance for the markets, as it left with it's tail tucked between it's legs. As I stated on my 4/22 post:

    "Last October had a big white candle with an 8% gain which took it over the 12 month MA. That was followed by a flat November, which was followed by three big down months. This year, we had March with a big white candle with a 6% gain which again took it over the 12 MMA. It's possible we may finish out this month flat or with another very small gain. How the month finishes may be an omen to how the next few months play out. I wouldn't be surprised to see a return to lower lows for stocks over the next few months."

    Of course anything can happen with the markets, including Fed manipulation, er, I mean intervention, to levitate stocks. But just looking at the charts, it looks like a downturn is just getting warmed up in the wings.

    The last hour of trading today was impressive, as bulls tried to corral stocks back into an uptrend. We'll have to see how Monday plays out, as the first trading day of the month is typically a bullish day. Keep an eye on the cumulative NY Advance Decline line, (below) as it's still in an uptrend, but ridiculously over bought (RSI, PPO). Also note that the over the last year, the S&P has a return of -1.97%. Yikes!

    NYAD.png

    Commodities continue to climb, including oil and the PM's. The dollar is going south fast. 10 Year T-Bill Yields look to be heading going back down, sending bond prices higher. Nasdaq is trying to hold on to the 50 DMA with it's fingernails, but looks like it's going to go down the flusheroo. Mr. Tran is looking very weak, and today it fell hard.

    So here's my guess on the market next week: Wouldn't be surprised to see a mild up day on Monday, followed by more downside action for the rest of the week.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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