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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4093

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I'm holding off for now as well. Went 50% G, 50% F late in this correction. After the S P broke through the August lows I thought it would fall like a rock. Hoping to get better at this. Sooner rather than later Thanks Mr JohnRoss, I'm learning lots from your thread.

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  3. #4094

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I got in a little in the C fund yesterday hoping for a little bounce. Still remember the big bounce off the low in October 2014 and hoped to get some back. Unfortunately I agree that we probably won't see the big V up until we resolve OIL, DOLLAR AND China so I expect to get out pretty soon next week.

    Big snow has started. Have a great weekend!

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  5. Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Yah. I'm a Noobie here (first post).
    I'm familiar with the markets but wanted to be more aggressive with my retirement (I still have a ways to go). So, I decided to join the conversations and get insight from everyone here.
    The funny thing about investments and models is that some hold more true than others. However, an individual will find the model that they like best because that is what want to hear. We are all like that.
    Right now I'm 50 F 50 C. I'm not a believer in this rally over the last few days. To many potential bad things could happen in the short term.
    Best of luck to everyone out there. Some people will be right and others will be wrong. That's the nature of investments!
    Kind of deep for a first post. LOL!


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  7. #4096

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Taking a risk here, and moving to the C Fund today. I'm thinking we're getting a little bear market rally that may take us up to the 2000 area on the S&P before we encounter resistance. This may be completely wrong, but the technical indicators look promising several days ago. Just didn't follow them at the correct time, and missed out on Friday's nice gain.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #4097

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    The worst could be behind us but I expect a bear market at least till November. After the election I think we will see the bulls run. I never pulled out and will ride it through.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Taking a risk here, and moving to the C Fund today. I'm thinking we're getting a little bear market rally that may take us up to the 2000 area on the S&P before we encounter resistance. This may be completely wrong, but the technical indicators look promising several days ago. Just didn't follow them at the correct time, and missed out on Friday's nice gain.

    Good luck!

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  11. #4098

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Bear market volatility bit me today. Would like to see the S&P at least re-claim the 1912 to 1914 area tomorrow, which are about where the 5 and 20 DMA are. If not, it may be time to bail. "Cut your losses early, let your winners ride."

    The F Fund is doing extremely well, perhaps too well, as the RSI on AGG just went over 70. Haven't seen that level since Feb 1 of last year, so perhaps it needs a cool down. On the other hand, if the market downdraft continues, it may not make much difference what the RSI level is, as money will flow out of equities and into bonds, driving interest rates lower still. It doesn't help that Japan has joined Europe to drive interest rates all the way down into negative territory. ZIRP was so yesterday now that we have NIRP.

    Meanwhile, the investigation continues into the study of timing systems. One caught my eye last night that uses several variables of the PMO on the S&P. Can't say much more than that, but it looks promising, at least in a back test of 2015 data.

    One last note... has anyone seen how far the BDI has fallen since August? Believe it or not, it's down 75%. The global slowdown continues...

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  13. #4099

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I don’t understand how anyone could see negative interest rates as a good thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Bear market volatility bit me today. Would like to see the S&P at least re-claim the 1912 to 1914 area tomorrow, which are about where the 5 and 20 DMA are. If not, it may be time to bail. "Cut your losses early, let your winners ride."

    The F Fund is doing extremely well, perhaps too well, as the RSI on AGG just went over 70. Haven't seen that level since Feb 1 of last year, so perhaps it needs a cool down. On the other hand, if the market downdraft continues, it may not make much difference what the RSI level is, as money will flow out of equities and into bonds, driving interest rates lower still. It doesn't help that Japan has joined Europe to drive interest rates all the way down into negative territory. ZIRP was so yesterday now that we have NIRP.

    Meanwhile, the investigation continues into the study of timing systems. One caught my eye last night that uses several variables of the PMO on the S&P. Can't say much more than that, but it looks promising, at least in a back test of 2015 data.

    One last note... has anyone seen how far the BDI has fallen since August? Believe it or not, it's down 75%. The global slowdown continues...

    Good luck!

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  15. #4100

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    High pole warning for AGG, which may be a sign that bonds are about to drop and interest rates rise. Still holding the C Fund, though the volatility is wacky - both daily and intraday. Didn't close as high as I would have liked, but at least we were near the HOD instead of the LOD thanks to the strong close. PMO system remains on a green light.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  17. #4101

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    The bear market rally appears to be fizzling out. Moving 100% to the G Fund at the close of business today.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  19. #4102

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    The bear market rally appears to be fizzling out. Moving 100% to the G Fund at the close of business today.
    Man, you can cut the scarcasm around here with a knife...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  21. #4103

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Kicking myself for not going into the F Fund. Bonds may be overbought, but it looks like they might stay overbought and climb higher during this market downturn. 10 Year Treasuries down to 1.735% today.

    Another interesting viewpoint is how the big high tech names (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, etc.), aka the FANG stocks have crashed. Was just looking at the chart of AMZN. It's down almost 30% from it's peak of 696 in late December. Today's close put it at 488. Talk about a haircut! Things are not going well when your big name stocks that were carrying the market are now crashing through the floor.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  23. #4104

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Kicking myself for not going into the F Fund. Bonds may be overbought, but it looks like they might stay overbought and climb higher during this market downturn. 10 Year Treasuries down to 1.735% today.

    Another interesting viewpoint is how the big high tech names (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, etc.), aka the FANG stocks have crashed. Was just looking at the chart of AMZN. It's down almost 30% from it's peak of 696 in late December. Today's close put it at 488. Talk about a haircut! Things are not going well when your big name stocks that were carrying the market are now crashing through the floor.

    Just goes to show just how much everyone is sharing in the pain. A few articles that I have read say that folks will be lucky to gain 5%-7% in 2016.

    Frank


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