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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #3973

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Trying something new. Here's a Relative Rotation Graph of the C, S, I, and F Funds:


    RRG.png

    With the S&P the "benchmark", this graph shows the weekly performance of the TSP Funds since the start of the year. Each quadrant of the graph is labeled as follows:

    Lower Right: Weakening
    Lower Left: Lagging
    Upper Left: Improving
    Upper Right: Leading

    I set the S&P500 as the benchmark to measure all the other funds performance against it, hence the S&P is centered at 100. You will note that the I Fund (EFA) is leading all the funds at this time. In the last three weeks it's showing a bit of a cool-off, but still well in the lead. The S Fund ($EMW) has also been outperforming C, but in the last three weeks has turned down more sharply. The F Fund (AGG), has been straggling around the lagging to improving area.

    Just thought it would be interesting to see another way of looking at relative performance. Let me know if you like this view, and I'll try to post it from time to time.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Interesting.
    Thank you for sharing.

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  5. #3975

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Phoenix, AZ
    Posts
    3,024

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Nice graphic. Very thoughtful. IF I use contrarian theory this month, I'll invest in the F fund.......

    Thank you.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  7. #3976

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I have been using that chart to help me identify which fund(s) I should be considering when I rebalance the accounts with Vanguard and T-Rowe Price. I then further check that fund against an Ichimoku chart. http://www.ichimokutrader.com . Once I've narrowed it down to a few funds I'll look at the candlestick charts to identify which fund(s) I should move to. Great tool for intermediate or long-term investing. Maybe not so much for short-term moves for those who are looking to jump between dips in TSP on a monthly basis.

    A good example I can give is Vanguards Emerging Markets (VMMSX). I jumped into that fund at the beginning of this month because it was in the "improving" sector of the graph and it was showing a break-out on the Ichomoku chart. It's been doing quite well this month so because of that chart I was able to easily identify a fund with potential gains.

    Here's a link that discusses the RRG chart further for anyone interested in using it. Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) Charts [Documentation]
    TSP: 2007=6.4%, 2008=(39.95%), 2009=30.96%, 2010=17.04% , 2011=(4.92%), 2012=17.74%, 2013=26.58%, 2014=5.39%
    TSP Talk: 2015=???

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  9. #3977

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Been slowly paring down my stock positions over the past week, building up my cash position. The dollar is absolutely tanking, which should help the I Fund. It should also help commodities, including metals and miners. Keeping a close eye on the market internals to see if I need to go to cash in the TSP, but holding steady at this time. The talk on the street is that first quarter GDP was well below what was expected. Usually bad news is good news for the markets, but bonds (and stocks) are surprisingly down on the news.

    With this being a Fed day, we should expect plenty of volatility, but Fed days usually end up being a positive for the markets. Not so sure of that, as it sure appears that the Transports are in deep doo doo after failing to climb over the 50 DMA, and looking to roll over. Another bad sign is the dark cloud that appeared over AAPL yesterday. At the very least, I'm expecting a re-test of the 50 DMA for AAPL. Plenty of other market leaders are failing as well, notably the biotech sector. The graph of IBB appears to show a negative PPO in the near future, something we haven't seen since last Oct. Perhaps it's a good buying opportunity?

    Keep those seatbelts fastened tightly, this roller coaster isn't done yet.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #3978

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
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    3,024

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Your assessment appears to be spot on. The dollar has fallen more than I had expected, so while the I fund had become my favored option heading into May, I'm wondering if it's time for the dollar to reverse course. I'd hate to use one of my precious May IFTs for I-Fund and have to immediately jump elsewhere. This market is very unstable at the moment and I that unpredictability has me holding back until I see things a little clearer.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.


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  13. #3979

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FogSailing View Post
    Your assessment appears to be spot on. The dollar has fallen more than I had expected, so while the I fund had become my favored option heading into May, I'm wondering if it's time for the dollar to reverse course. I'd hate to use one of my precious May IFTs for I-Fund and have to immediately jump elsewhere. This market is very unstable at the moment and I that unpredictability has me holding back until I see things a little clearer.

    FS
    The markets are not looking too healthy this morning. Pretty much everything is in the red. The fact that the transports failed the 50 DMA test is the most troubling to me. Dow Theory says that the markets can't continue higher if the Transports are going down.

    It's also looking like Mr. VIX is waking up from his slumber (current level at 14 and change this morning). The general trend for the VIX has been down since the beginning of February, as it's been bouncing off the 12ish range. It's now looking like a possible bottoming formation has taken place, and an intermediate term move higher is in process. I know it's still too early to confirm, but the Stoch and PPO are beginning to show signs of a possible move higher. This could spell trouble for the markets as well.

    Still thinking that EFA should outperform the U.S. markets in the near term, since they're in the process of trillion euro QE pumping. The Harbinger is warning of a massive reset later this year, which is entirely possible. It would start with Greece, IMHO. Keep your eyes peeled for the dominos to start teetering.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  15. #3980

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    The Harbinger is warning of a massive reset later this year, which is entirely possible.
    Shemitah 9/13/15
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  17. #3981

    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Pennsylvania, USA
    Posts
    282

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    The markets are not looking too healthy this morning. Pretty much everything is in the red.
    I was hoping it'd be a small green day before the red hit tomorrow and next week. My G-fund transfer doesn't kick in until COB today.

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  19. #3982

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrie View Post
    Shemitah 9/13/15
    Ahhh, you are also one who is aware. Your tag line says it all.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #3983

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Looks like the S&P has bounced off of it's 50 DMA, which is a positive. Decided to hold my I Fund position and not go to cash, which I was slightly considering. According to the pundits, the market seems to be scared of a possible rate hike by the Fed. Every piece of positive news is met with a sell-off. Today's news that new claims for unemployment reached a 15 yr low sent the markets reeling. Between that and wage growth and consumer spending going up, you'd think the economy is just humming right along.

    You would have thought yesterday's anemic GDP numbers would have sent the markets skyrocketing, but no! No soup for you! Such is life.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  23. #3984

    Join Date
    Jan 2006
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    Phoenix, AZ
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    3,024

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Thanks. I saw the VIX numbers also. Smells like...well let's just say it isn't that spring smell of May..

    I find the QE in Europe unsettling. Greece, Spain, etc. Hope they figure out how to address their solvency issues. Same goes for our own country. Makes you wonder which banker is holding all that debt.

    This is going to be an interesting year. Thanks for posting.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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