Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Originally Posted by konakathy

JR - We have the luck of the Irish in March. We will all find our pot of gold!

Wouldn't that be nice!

Very little movement in the major indices today. This is a nice change compared to the wild up and down swings we saw in January on a daily, and sometimes hourly, basis. EFA is doing just fine today, so I'll be holding my I Fund position going into March.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

The McClellan Oscillator Summation Index (MOSI) is still climbing, but momentum is slowing (see below). The same can be said for the $TICK. It's been a great month, with the Dow up 1,059 points so far. But all good things must come to an end. My forecast for March is for this uptrend to run into headwinds pretty quickly. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Update on the S&P 500 MOSI indicator. As expected, the indicator has gone negative. To minimize whipsaws, I use the 5 DMA as a signal trigger. If the markets are down on Monday, I would expect the MOSI to flash a sell signal. The $TICK has not flashed a sell signal yet, but I haven't done a statistical comparison of these two indicators. There's always a tradeoff with getting out at the first sign of a downturn, with getting whip-sawed out, only to see the markets suddenly turn higher.


MOSI S&P500.jpg

Originally Posted by konakathy

JR - We have the luck of the Irish in March. We will all find our pot of gold!image.jpg

I just hope our March pot of gold doesn't turn into fools gold by April 1st.

The Stock Market is in the Process of a Major Top! ~ Brad Gudgeon

"Ideally, we should see a final top on June 3, 2015 near SPX 2200 (max) and a drop to under 1670 by around June 29..."

Hmmmm... that's about a 25% drop. That would shake up a few people, wouldn't it.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

The Stock Market is in the Process of a Major Top! ~ Brad Gudgeon

"Ideally, we should see a final top on June 3, 2015 near SPX 2200 (max) and a drop to under 1670 by around June 29..."

Hmmmm... that's about a 25% drop. That would shake up a few people, wouldn't it.

Definitely mark the calendar!

Updated 1 hour chart of the S&P 500:


spx.png

Just catching up on the markets today, as I had a big project that lasted all day. Was pleasantly surprised to see how well the markets performed. S&P back up near an all time high, and the Nasdaq finally closed above 5,000, which bode well for TQQQ, which was up 2.70% today. Not bad. The MOSI turned back up today, but it's still skirting along the edge of the trigger line for a sell signal. The next day or two will be important to see if this rally will last a little bit longer, or if the cycle timing band has gotten too far stretched. I'm guessing that the rally won't last too much longer. I'll keep my eyes peeled for the tell tale signs...

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Updated 1 hour chart of the S&P 500:


spx.png

Just catching up on the markets today, as I had a big project that lasted all day. Was pleasantly surprised to see how well the markets performed. S&P back up near an all time high, and the Nasdaq finally closed above 5,000, which bode well for TQQQ, which was up 2.70% today. Not bad. The MOSI turned back up today, but it's still skirting along the edge of the trigger line for a sell signal. The next day or two will be important to see if this rally will last a little bit longer, or if the cycle timing band has gotten too far stretched. I'm guessing that the rally won't last too much longer. I'll keep my eyes peeled for the tell tale signs...

Just getting a chance to look at the markets. The S&P dropped hard out of the gate, kissed the lower regression channel line, then promptly bounced higher. The market is having a hard time declining, but I'm seeing more and more evidence of stocks rolling over, especially high flyers. The Transports have failed to make new highs, and the Utilities have been getting crushed since the last week of January. The Dow theory is in trouble if the Transports can't confirm new highs for the market. I'm still hanging on, but very near the exits, just in case...

Oil glut: US running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge

In mid-April, we'll be at "tank-tops". Think DWTI.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Oil glut: US running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge

In mid-April, we'll be at "tank-tops". Think DWTI.

MJR,

I want to ask a question that might be helpful to many others as well. Since your statement is related to tops and tank-tops, the price of oil has had a significant impact on the stock market and the availability of discretionary funds for the consumer. Can you please help me understand the possibility that Jim Cramer is correct (in today's program)?

I did not see the whole explanation, but Cramer presented a chart of the SPX and the VIX. The comparisons come from someone I understood to be "Sebastian" or something close to this. The idea is that the charts show that every time in the last year or so, approx. 2 weeks prior to the FED's policy announcement, the SPX rises significantly even with complacency, but Yellin's soothing words have kept the markets levitating. However, something is about to change, because Yellin wants to raise rates at some nearby point sooner rather than later. Cramer indicated the next meeting to be on or around March 17. Cramer said that a couple more days of dropping like today, would reduce or correct the state of complacency. What I failed to hear was what the conclusion is, because I did not listen to the explanation due to some interruptions where I was watching part of the program and I had not recorded it at home.

Question: Whether or not the SPX will most likely keep rising prior to March 17? Perhaps you, or someone else who saw Cramer today might clarify this. Thanks for your help.

Get ready—Fed to cause major turmoil this month

Get ready