Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Tomorrow is the last trading day for January. One of the things that's been reinforced in my mind with this year's trading is to mentally give even less weighting to historical averages. So far, the historical odds of a certain day/week/month being positive/negative have been shot to hell. Perhaps this year is an anomaly, but the averages just haven't panned out like I thought they might. I normally didn't pay a whole lot of attention to them, and now I know why. I haven't performed any kind of statistical analysis on it, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't pretty much a 50/50 crapshoot.

Let's see how tomorrow pans out. Historically, tomorrow, Jan 30th is considered a "Bullish" day. Here are the historical odds of a positive close:

DJIA: 62%
S&P: 67%
Nasdaq: 62%
R1K: 60%
R2K: 77%

Personally, if I were a betting man, I would bet on a higher close tomorrow. The reason has less to do with history, and more to do with what I see in the charts. To me, I see the gas pedal being pushed down, and the tachometer going up from a slightly oversold position.

One other interesting note...

According to the Stock Traders Almanac, every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction.

Ominous historical data indeed.

Updated graph of the S&P 500. You know, if this keeps up, I have the perfect strategy...

Buy when it reaches the bottom of the box. Sell when it reaches the top of the box.

I think even a 3rd grader could figger that one out. :toung:


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Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

One other interesting note...

According to the Stock Traders Almanac, every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction.

Ominous historical data indeed.

Then tomorrow should be a banner day... or this is going to be a rough year

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Updated graph of the S&P 500. You know, if this keeps up, I have the perfect strategy...Buy when it reaches the bottom of the box. Sell when it reaches the top of the box.I think even a 3rd grader could figger that one out. :toung:

Oh Oh! Time for it to stop working then.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

One other interesting note...

According to the Stock Traders Almanac, every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction.

Ominous historical data indeed.

I know it isn't the S&P, but the C fund was down 3.45% in January 2014. The C fund finished with a 13.78% gain for 2014.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

I know it isn't the S&P, but the C fund was down 3.45% in January 2014. The C fund finished with a 13.78% gain for 2014.

Good observation. The STA was obviously published prior to the end of the year, so it didn't have end of year data for that statement. I stand corrected.

Rules and exceptions were meant to be broken, especially when we have a market that's being manipulated by the Fed.

Which brings us to another rule to follow... Don't fight the Fed.

Shake Shack (SHAK) IPO is making millionaires a lot of money this morning.

The U.S. is apparently going the way of Europe. Global deflation appears to be at the doorstep. Interest rates gapped down this morning. 10-year Treasuries hit a low of 1.666.

666??? That's the sign of the devil!

If you're holding the F Fund, you're a happy camper.

The Fed is going to have a hard time justifying raising interest rates later this year, IMHO.

AAARRRGGG! That is all...

Graph of the S&P, showing a consolidating triangle pattern. Notice that the Bollinger Bands are also contracting. This is known as a "coiling" pattern, where the market is coiling up like a snake, ready to jump out at ya. Which direction is anyone's guess, but the market appears to have a downward bias at this point. Eventually this pattern is going to break, as they all must.


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