Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Originally Posted by JTH

Congrats on getting back into the markets and avoiding getting left behind. I have no idea what the I-Fund will yield, but I'm guessing it will be better than the G-Fund.

Thanks bro. It remains to be seen if it was the right move. Just playin' the odds.

If the markets can make a push to the upside today, the S&P MOSI Indicator would likely switch to a "Buy" signal. The MOSI is a lagging indicator (by a few days), but it's been very accurate in showing intermediate trend changes. A positive close could also take us outside of the "box" I posted earlier.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

A positive close

I'm not seeing it but stranger things have happened. January Blues.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

I'm not seeing it but stranger things have happened. January Blues.

The market is actually performing today as expected. A negative open following by a slow grind up. The project outcome is flat close to .25% up S&C Funds. Of course anything could happen between now and close....but past performance in large previous day strong rally to the end of the day...have led to this consistent outcome. So barring no major news surprises...yawn type of day and therefore....a quiet TSPTalk board.

I agree on the flat close. In fact if one was considering a move to the G, today would be the day to do it safely with slight certainty that the market would hold the last few days gains.
But here we are on a beautiful Friday and thinking about a cold one and the weekend. Life is good.

Not too surprising to see the market take a little pause here. Big percentage moves like the one that happened yesterday just don't happen every day. Short term indicators were getting a little over-heated, so it's time to let the "hot engine" light go out before we resume our trek higher.

Remind me never to agree with felix.

Here's an updated view of the 60 minute chart of the S&P. What was surprising to me was to see the S&P hit the exact top of the box and immediately back off. It's not quite ready to break that 2064 level.


$spx.png

Here's a chart of how the I Fund has performed vs the C Fund. Over the past year, the I Fund has performed dismally, as the slope of the line curved down all year. Then, on Jan 9th, that trend suddenly changed. The downtrend line was clearly broken with a strong move to the upside, meaning the I Fund was performing better than C. (The graph of I vs S looks very similar.) This was the reason why it made sense to move into the I Fund when it recently became time to go back into equities.

Unfortunately, the I Fund has pulled back a little since that time, but with the ECB assisting the markets, the trend change is likely to be long lasting. The strong dollar is hurting the I Fund's returns, but there's not any way to hedge against that with our limited investment choices in the TSP. Still, I believe the odds are good that we'll see some continued outperformance of the EAFE vs the S&P in the coming weeks.


I VS C.png

Here's a good article on the current state of affairs with the gold and silver market:

Gold And Silver - Timing Is Most Important Element

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Here's a chart of how the I Fund has performed vs the C Fund. Over the past year, the I Fund has performed dismally, as the slope of the line curved down all year. Then, on Jan 9th, that trend suddenly changed. The downtrend line was clearly broken with a strong move to the upside, meaning the I Fund was performing better than C. (The graph of I vs S looks very similar.) This was the reason why it made sense to move into the I Fund when it recently became time to go back into equities.

Unfortunately, the I Fund has pulled back a little since that time, but with the ECB assisting the markets, the trend change is likely to be long lasting. The strong dollar is hurting the I Fund's returns, but there's not any way to hedge against that with our limited investment choices in the TSP. Still, I believe the odds are good that we'll see some continued outperformance of the EAFE vs the S&P in the coming weeks.


I VS C.png

Even if the Dollar reaches parity with the Euro?