Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Thanks. An interesting article. We sure are lucky to be living in such interesting times.

Had to mix rocket fuel for 10 hours today, so just getting a chance to review some charts. What I found interesting was that several indices have flipped to a sell based on their MOSI. They are:

Financials
Nasdaq
S&P600 (Small Caps)

The Utilities continue their plunge.

The Wilshire 5000 barely eeked out from a sell signal, with a reading of 0.04, which is roughly the equivalent of a gnats a**.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Considering a position in TZA for a short term swing. Wish I coulda been at the steering wheel today.

And those miners sure are looking like they're gonna be making a nice move higher!

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Had to mix rocket fuel for 10 hours today, so just getting a chance to review some charts. What I found interesting was that several indices have flipped to a sell based on their MOSI. They are:

Financials
Nasdaq
S&P600 (Small Caps)

The Utilities continue their plunge.

The Wilshire 5000 barely eeked out from a sell signal, with a reading of 0.04, which is roughly the equivalent of a gnats a**.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Considering a position in TZA for a short term swing. Wish I coulda been at the steering wheel today.

And those miners sure are looking like they're gonna be making a nice move higher!

MJR,

Can you post once you have decided if and when you plan to buy TZA? Thank you.

Originally Posted by airlift

MJR,

Can you post once you have decided if and when you plan to buy TZA? Thank you.

Waiting for end of day MOSI data. This was the kind of day that I feared would happen, where the markets look like they're rolling over for days, so you jump out, and suddenly you get a big up-tick. *SMDH*.

Eh well, I'm thinking this is a short term head-fake rally, as the momentum on most of the indices look to be waning. I certainlly could be wrong. The market is very good at making you look like a fool from time to time, but I don't believe now is the time to jump back in. Looking at the RSI, we're crossing into the danger territory, so it's just a matter of time, IMHO, until we get at least a mild pull-back.

Worst case scenario is some rat-a-tat-tat up and down days (like we had from March thru mid May) that really cause confusion and traders to give up, or at least doubt, their systems. "Trading in a box" is what I call it. Unless you're a day trader, those kind of markets are pretty sucky.

I do love the action in the miners, tho! Dang, GDXJ, NUGT and JNUG are killin' it! It is a bit of a head scratcher, as usually the metals/miners don't perform well when stocks do well, since they're competing for the same dollar. $USD was down slightly, so that could be part of the reason, but I really think the miners were quite simply extremely oversold and due for a big bounce.

Also interesting to see bonds do well today. I thought for sure they'd be down, with the market heading higher.

Picked up some TZA this morning at 13.725.

Good luck!

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Picked up some TZA this morning at 13.725.

Good luck!

Not cool, you're supposed to wait for me to dump my TNA...

Originally Posted by JTH

Not cool, you're supposed to wait for me to dump my TNA...

Luckily, I sold my position on 11/14 (Friday). Looked like a topping process was taking shape, so I bailed. Doubting we're going to have a serious market pullback, maybe a 3 - 5% cooling off period for a good week or so, then we head higer. That's my guess. What's your crystal ball say?

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Luckily, I sold my position on 11/14 (Friday). Looked like a topping process was taking shape, so I bailed. Doubting we're going to have a serious market pullback, maybe a 3 - 5% cooling off period for a good week or so, then we head higer. That's my guess. What's your crystal ball say?

I was stopped out of TNA today for a loss, although not a large loss. The ROTH has sucked wind this year and it's 100% my fault for not keeping track of my postions.

As for the crystal ball, my hybrid indicators have been doing some odd things lately, they aren't overbought, but are actually compressed and oversold, I'm not even giving them any weight until they prove to me they are working again. What we aren't getting is participation in unison across the major indexes, which is why I haven't called a top yet. Seems to be the same story from the previous top, large caps/tech outperforms while small caps take the brunt of the decline. In my mind there is no logical reason to be invested while price is flat-lining at 52-week highs, yet here I am invested, like a deer staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck...

The market still looks overbought here, but it could continue even higher... at least for a while. Check out this chart of the S&P:

spx 11-20-14.png

This same kind of market action occurred from mid June thru late July. The S&P chopped back and forth from the 1951 level to 1969, even thought the RSI was in overbought territory, and the PPO and Stoch kept looking like they was an impending pullback.

The pullback finally came in early August, and was completed in less than two weeks before the market climbed higher again. It's possible the same scenario is happening again now. The big difference is the magnitude of the PPO now is much higher than before. This just means that current prices are further away (higher) from their 50 DMA than before. Like a rubber band, I'm expecting the 50 day to pull prices back to "normal" before springing back higher.

By the way, the W5000 MOSI is dancing on the zero line, acting like it's toying with traders nerves on whether or not it's going to fall. Give up the ship MOSI!

*BANG! BANG! BANG!*

*smoking gun*

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

The market still looks overbought here, but it could continue even higher... at least for a while. Check out this chart of the S&P:

spx 11-20-14.png

This same kind of market action occurred from mid June thru late July. The S&P chopped back and forth from the 1951 level to 1969, even thought the RSI was in overbought territory, and the PPO and Stoch kept looking like they was an impending pullback.

The pullback finally came in early August, and was completed in less than two weeks before the market climbed higher again. It's possible the same scenario is happening again now. The big difference is the magnitude of the PPO now is much higher than before. This just means that current prices are further away (higher) from their 50 DMA than before. Like a rubber band, I'm expecting the 50 day to pull prices back to "normal" before springing back higher.

I like that analsys, it falls inline with my medium/long term expectations, only I think you said it better than I could have expressed it. As you mentioned, "if we see the same thing, then why should'nt we expect to get the same results?" This is the underlining problem I've been dealing with, common sense tells me we should be expecting a deeper pullback based on the indicator's historical performance. I can't say what is right or what is wrong, but I do agree your projections are logical, and I do believe logic is right, I just never know when it's going to be right, or if I'll see it when it's coming...