Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

For those of you who would like to see some of my work in action this morning, you can follow along here:

Live coverage of the flight of the Orbital Sciences Cygnus spacecraft on a flight to the International Space Station

P.S. I only have a small part in this flight (engine starters), but this bird won't fly without them.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

System now holds DUST at 41.25. I will hold cash, thank you very much.

Thanks for sharing the signal. I'm curious, however, why you're not following the move to DUST. What do you see that gives you pause?

Originally Posted by WhoDey

Thanks for sharing the signal. I'm curious, however, why you're not following the move to DUST. What do you see that gives you pause?

Several reasons, the most important being the 3 day settlement rule. Normally I have cash on hand to make any trades I want, but I'm nearly fully invested. I may trim some dead wood from my holdings in the next few days, but the timing isn't quite there yet. I also think that we may be near an important bottom in the metals/mining sector, so that plays into my decision as well.

In case you haven't seen it, here's an interesting article on the "three peaks and a domed house" analogy by Tom McClellan:

A Review of Analogs

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Both systems flipped at the open this morning. I usually wait until end of day, but decided to sell my NUGT for a gain of < 1%. Boo. But I'd rather get out now than see it go down 5%.

System now holds DUST at 41.25. I will hold cash, thank you very much.

I think I'll wait until end of day to see how URTY/SRTY looks. Let's call it a weak buy signal for URTY at 87.40.

Looks like DUST was the correct call. Up about 3% from the buy point.

URTY looks like a wash. Technically we had a buy at 87.40, but it's pretty weak. Anyone else think this market feels a little skittish?

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Looks like DUST was the correct call. Up about 3% from the buy point.

URTY looks like a wash. Technically we had a buy at 87.40, but it's pretty weak. Anyone else think this market feels a little skittish?

Was the day from hell at work. Just getting a chance to check in.

NUGT/DUST does not have a clear direction the past few days. That's dangerous, as can be seen by today's 10% loss in DUST. Ugh. System switches back to NUGT. Glad I sat that trade out.

URTY was up 1.79%. That compares to TNA's 1.59%.

S Fund had a good day, up 0.61%. Market bias is still to the upside. ^

Haven't posted this graph in a while - the weekly S&P timing system. Obviously we're still in a "green" buy mode.


$SPX weekly timing.png

Note that the 10 EMA remains above the 50 EMA. A "sell" occurs only when the 10 goes below the 50, AND the Stoch RSI goes below 0.1.

One thing to note here is the DISTANCE that the 10 EMA is above the 50 EMA. Looks a bit extreme to me. In other instances where they get too far apart, (e.g. see the peak in 2011), there tends to be a "reversion to the mean", meaning a "market correction".

Not saying that it's gonna happen, because nothing is guaranteed. However, it does appear that the spread between the 10 and 50 continues to get wider and wider. This won't go on forever, folks. Enjoy it while it lasts.

are those EMA's 10 and 50 DAYS or Weeks?

Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n

are those EMA's 10 and 50 DAYS or Weeks?

Weeks

..."One disturbing development that is fast concluding is a Rising Bearish Wedge pattern formation in the NYSE Cumulative Advance / Decline Line Indicator. If the coming major top in stocks will be typical, a preceding top in the NYAD should happen before the completion of the stock market top and the start of a massive economic decline.

Typical of major tops in the stock market, we should see the NYAD top first, perhaps several weeks or months before stocks top. This NYAD Rising Wedge pattern is close to completion, telling us the top in the NYAD is close at hand. Next should be a Bearish Divergence between the NYAD and the stock market. In other words, the Cumulative Advance / Decline Line should decline as stocks continue higher, perhaps for a few weeks or even months. This Bearish Divergence would be an early warning that a major top in stocks is fast approaching. So, it looks as if the NYAD is close to topping, and this expected Bearish Divergence with stocks should soon begin. Once stocks should reach their top, that will mark the end of the Grand Supercycle rising trend that started centuries ago. Further, we see that the Jaws of Death pattern in stocks is in its landing approach, its home stretch, and a top should arrive within several months. That top could arrive around 17,000 to 17,500ish in the Industrials..."

The NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line is About to Top, an Early Indicator that a Major Top is Approaching in Stocks

any back data for your NUGT/DUST trade?