Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.

It's as if the Smart Money is moving back into bonds by selling their equities to the left behind Panic Buyers. Just my paranoia talking.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Anyone else notice the dark cloud forming on the US Dollar fund, UUP?
This should be a good omen for the stock market, the metals market, as well as the I Fund, right?

Interesting...perhaps an IFT to a mix of S & I vice straight up S? Or will the dollar shake this off and continue it's climb? I guess I'll be watching the dollar closely before deciding what to do with this last IFT for March...might wait until Monday before pulling the trigger too.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.

I agree, whatever rotation is going on right now hasn't been readily identified as to what the end result will be. In late March the dollar may get a 50/200 SMA Golden Cross.

Is the 10 year bull run in gold over? It appears that may be the case. Check out this chart:


GOLD.png


A couple of things to note here.

1) The uptrend line that has been in place for 10 years was broken at the end of last year (blue line) That's a major violation, and does not bode well for precious metals (PM's).
2) Only twice in that 10 year run did gold take a pause, and when it did, the PPO went below zero (see red boxes). We're going back below zero again.
3) The RSI is collapsing and the weekly Stoch is going dead. Two more bad signs for any kind of strength.

Unless something changes soon, I'm not expecting gold or silver to shine too much in the near term.

The other item to consider is the strength in the dollar. A strong dollar does not bode well for PM's, and the dollar has had a LOT of strength this year. Although we had a big down day in the dollar today, one day does not change much in the big picture.

One final thought... money tends to flow where it finds the best return. Money leaves bonds and PM's when it can get stellar returns in the stock market. Yet another reason to expect continued weakness.

I continue to hold my 2X leveraged silver ETF, AGQ, but I now have to consider it a "longer term" investment than I was expecting.

I know these conditions won't last forever, and the likelyhood of a stock sell off (sell in May and go away?) could come at any time.

Money printing may eventually put an end to this downtrend, but we've been saying those words for years, haven't we?

Good luck!

I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging my position in GDXJ until the cows come home.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging my position in GDXJ until the cows come home.

Birch, just curious, what percentage of your money vault is in the metals market? Most people are advised to put no more than 10%, but you're not most people.

I suspect my metal holdings are less than 2% of my totals. I'm drowning in coal though and will continue to inflict more pain on myself by averaging further down into the mines.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I suspect my metal holdings are less than 2% of my totals. I'm drowning in coal though and will continue to inflict more pain on myself by averaging further down into the mines.

It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it.

I think AAPL may have formed a bottom here, and is on the way back up... at least for a little while. Check out the rising 5 day EMA, Stoch, RSI and MACD/PPO. I'm expecting at least a test of the upper BB, which is currently near $461. That's about 5% above current prices.


aapl.png

A strong rebound in AAPL will definitely send the SPX way past 1576 - then many will scramble to catch the ride.

I do like the new Samsung Galaxy S4, though. Apple will have some catching up to do.