Anyone else notice the dark cloud forming on the US Dollar fund, UUP?
uup.png
This should be a good omen for the stock market, the metals market, as well as the I Fund, right? Although... the rising dollar seemed to have no affect on the stock market, so maybe it will have an insignificant impact.
Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.
Good luck everyone!
CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Interesting...perhaps an IFT to a mix of S & I vice straight up S? Or will the dollar shake this off and continue it's climb? I guess I'll be watching the dollar closely before deciding what to do with this last IFT for March...might wait until Monday before pulling the trigger too.
Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.
Is the 10 year bull run in gold over? It appears that may be the case. Check out this chart:
GOLD.png
A couple of things to note here.
1) The uptrend line that has been in place for 10 years was broken at the end of last year (blue line) That's a major violation, and does not bode well for precious metals (PM's).
2) Only twice in that 10 year run did gold take a pause, and when it did, the PPO went below zero (see red boxes). We're going back below zero again.
3) The RSI is collapsing and the weekly Stoch is going dead. Two more bad signs for any kind of strength.
Unless something changes soon, I'm not expecting gold or silver to shine too much in the near term.
The other item to consider is the strength in the dollar. A strong dollar does not bode well for PM's, and the dollar has had a LOT of strength this year. Although we had a big down day in the dollar today, one day does not change much in the big picture.
One final thought... money tends to flow where it finds the best return. Money leaves bonds and PM's when it can get stellar returns in the stock market. Yet another reason to expect continued weakness.
I continue to hold my 2X leveraged silver ETF, AGQ, but I now have to consider it a "longer term" investment than I was expecting.
I know these conditions won't last forever, and the likelyhood of a stock sell off (sell in May and go away?) could come at any time.
Money printing may eventually put an end to this downtrend, but we've been saying those words for years, haven't we?
Good luck!
CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017
I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging my position in GDXJ until the cows come home.
I suspect my metal holdings are less than 2% of my totals. I'm drowning in coal though and will continue to inflict more pain on myself by averaging further down into the mines.
I think AAPL may have formed a bottom here, and is on the way back up... at least for a little while. Check out the rising 5 day EMA, Stoch, RSI and MACD/PPO. I'm expecting at least a test of the upper BB, which is currently near $461. That's about 5% above current prices.
aapl.png
CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017
A strong rebound in AAPL will definitely send the SPX way past 1576 - then many will scramble to catch the ride.
I do like the new Samsung Galaxy S4, though. Apple will have some catching up to do.
CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017
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