Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

No one saw the major math blunder???

The S&P has gone from roughly 1358 to 1371 since my sell signal. That's a gain of about 0.9%, after a quick couple of days of some scary market action. It'll sure be interesting to see what happens this week. Will it get me back in? Or will the market make another swoon? Can't wait to find out! Futures pointing down ahead of Monday morning's open.

The VIX is bombing to 15.43 off 1.68 - we could have a nice close today.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

The VIX is bombing to 15.43 off 1.68 - we could have a nice close today.

Unbelievable. The VIX getting this low is a rarity, and usually signals a market top/reversal. This could be a great shorting opportunity.

One long, one short. Thoughts - what is there to drive the market up higher? I don't know of anything obvious. How about lower? I don't know of anyhting obvious, but I do know that any negative news will sending it tumbling. So maybe we are at a top. Thoughts please?????

Originally Posted by jkenjohnson

One long, one short. Thoughts - what is there to drive the market up higher? I don't know of anything obvious. How about lower? I don't know of anyhting obvious, but I do know that any negative news will sending it tumbling. So maybe we are at a top. Thoughts please?????

To look at what might drive the market higher, you can find plenty of links and articles that BT posts. There seems to be plenty of reasons.

Lower? EU, war with Iran, gasolilne costs, more and more boomers heading into retirement and selling their stock holdings while moving to bonds, annuities, cash, etc.

Of course, these are all just thought processes. What really matters is what is technically happening with the markets. "The tape" never lies, and doesn't care what makes it go up or down.

We have a wonderful wall of worry to make a rally run like the wind.

I'll stick with my system for now and hope it doesn't blow up on me.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Unbelievable. The VIX getting this low is a rarity, and usually signals a market top/reversal. This could be a great shorting opportunity.

It's nearing a multi-year low, but still well above the pre-financial crisis levels.



The big money needs to suck in more unsuspecting victims who are still on the sidelines before they drop it again.

Yeah, here's another look at the VIX (3 year view). The S&P 500 (in blue) is behind the VIX. You can clearly see that when VIX got below ~16, it usually signaled a market top.

Just like waves at the ocean, VIX rolls in, and it rolls out. Don't think it's going to go much lower. If it does, I would use extreme caution.

Also note that the MACD is making a pretty strong climb higher, suggesting that VIX will follow suit.

vix.jpg

The only thing we have to fear is no fear. Let the VIX come down with that comfort level. Remember, negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market, and of course you knew that. Mom and Pop are still on the run into the closed canyon - that's just the way it should happen. The big picture is that of the stock market targeting a trend towards a new all time high - sooner than later. I want my QE3.