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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4453

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DaddyTin View Post
    Oh, the NEXT DAY card! Good luck, JR. I seem to have an infinite supply of those cards when I start playing them. If I add some discipline, I am sure I might keep a few in the bag and decide on fact rather than my emotion.
    You may have hit the nail on the head, DaddyTin. The only logic to going against my system is the belief in Santa Claus and seasonality. That and $2 will get you a cup of coffee.

    Since there's only three trading days left for the Santa effect (or is it affect; I never know which is correct), I was thinking there may not be much of a difference between selling now and three days from now. (Famous last words?)

    I'm hoping to run an analysis on if I had followed my system to a T this year compared to buy & hold. Maybe over the New Year break.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  3. #4454

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I ran the stats for 2016. Here are the results:

    S&P Buy & Hold: +9.54% (Benchmark)

    PPO System: +11.05% (17 buy & sell signals)

    PMO System: +14.08% (21 buy & sell signals)

    VIX System: +15.43% (45 buy & sell signals)

    Composite System: +15.23% (24 buy & sell signals)

    I was surprised to see these results. It's another confirmation that a mechanical timing system can beat the market, as long as you don't try to out-think it. Damned emotions. My last year's results were awful because of emotions and trying to out-think things. I vow to do better this year. Please hold me accountable.

    Also, any of these systems (except the VIX) could be utilized for trading our TSP accounts, since we have (at least) 24 trades allowed per year. (One extra to go to cash after your 2nd IFT for the month).

    Would love to do more analysis for the past 3 years, but it took me about 4 hours just to do this past year's data, and I still have a lot of "what if" questions that need further analysis.

    I'll continue to post my composite signals here for your consideration, but keep in mind that these signals may not always beat the market in any given year.

    Good luck to all in 2017!

    MJR
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  5. #4455

    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    The Lonestar State
    Posts
    2,737

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Hello Mr. John Ross,

    Are you running the PMO and PPO indicators on SPX and DWCPF and use standard defaults to generate the signals? Just curious about that. I use the MACD instead of PPO but this year had been leaning more towards using EMA cross overs to generate signals although I did not execute as I should have. Letting too many other things and thoughts get in the way.... so I can relate. I've resolved to refocus and try to do better. I guess we all are doing that as the year starts.

    Just want you to know I really enjoy reading your posts so THANK YOU !!! Great info. Best wishes to you on your Investments !!!!!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 01-03-2017 at 12:30 AM.
    "Great thoughts speak only to the thoughtful mind; but great actions speak to all mankind." - Theodore Roosevelt All comments are informational only; not financial advice--- DBAnnie


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  7. #4456

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Hello Mr. John Ross,

    Are you running the PMO and PPO indicators on SPX and DWCPF and use standard defaults to generate the signals? Just curious about that. I use the MACD instead of PPO but this year had been leaning more towards using EMA cross overs to generate signals although I did not execute as I should have. Letting too many other things and thoughts get in the way.... so I can relate. I've resolved to refocus and try to do better. I guess we all are doing that as the year starts.

    Just want you to know I really enjoy reading your posts so THANK YOU !!! Great info. Best wishes to you on your Investments !!!!!
    Thanks DBA. I use indicators on SPX and VIX that are standard, although my PMO system is a bit more complex, using %PMO crossovers at certain thresholds on the SPX.

    Best of luck to you this year!

    MJR
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  9. #4457

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    431

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Happy New Year and thanks for all your wonderful and thoughtful posts!

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  11. #4458

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by pmaloney View Post
    Happy New Year and thanks for all your wonderful and thoughtful posts!

    Thank you pmaloney. Best of luck to you this year as well!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  13. #4459

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    The first two trading days of 2017 have been good enough to put me back in sync with my composite system. Both the VIX and PMO are at +1, while the PPO remains at -1, so my composite now reads +1.

    I'm hoping we still have a solid week and a half of bullish behavior before this cycle ends. Currently, 77% of S&P 500 large cap stocks are above their 20 DMA, while mid caps and small caps are doing even better at 86% and 84% respectively.

    Bullish percent index (BPI) for the S&P is at 71%, while the BPI for the Nasdaq is reading 66%, both very strong right now. The advances vs declines and new highs vs new lows are also tracking higher.

    Interesting to see bonds starting to make a breakout move higher. 10 year Treasury yields have fallen from 2.62% to 2.45%, and look to fall further. Not sure yet if the PM rally is for real. I'm watching that one closely, which is tied to the dollar.

    Let's keep the bull train going! Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  15. #4460

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Been watching market internals weaken the last few trading days. This advance looks to be on shaky legs. Mr Tran, usually a market leader, has not confirmed this latest move higher by the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, so we've also got that divergence.

    The talking heads say it has to do with the drop in the price in oil. Perhaps, but in any case, my composite system has turned around and now reads a -1 sell. Interestingly, my VIX system, usually the first system to register market turns, remains at +1.

    I was hoping to see this rally last through this week, but it just wasn't meant to be. Rather than go to the safety of the money market, I'm going to roll the dice and see if bonds can continue their rally.

    100% F Fund as of C.O.B. 1/10/2017.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  17. #4461

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    It still appears to me that the market is on shaky legs, not sure which way it wants to go. A number of oscillators I watch are heading south, but prices haven't really followed suit quite yet. On top of that, now Mr Tran is acting like he wants to perk up. See chart below:


    TRAN.png


    There's still no clear trend up or down these last few days, as we've just been bouncing around. Futures are pointing to a lower open by about 52 points as of this writing, but that often times doesn't mean a whole lot.

    My composite system is still reading a -1 sell signal, but my VIX system is looking like it's very near a sell signal as well. My cycle analysis also says we're very near an intermediate turning point in the days ahead.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017

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  19. #4462

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Is today the beginning of a pullback?
    I'm in the KMA club

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  21. #4463

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    1,974

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jkenjohnson View Post
    Is today the beginning of a pullback?
    We have been on a tear since the election, so a pullback would certainly be in order.
    Grab some popcorn and lets see what happens...
    Current Allocation: 100% S Fund, effective COB 4/20/17

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  23. #4464

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by jkenjohnson View Post
    Is today the beginning of a pullback?

    Not sure jken, but the odds are looking like it's certainly possible.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% C AS OF C.O.B. 4/21/2017


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