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Thread: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

  1. #4357

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Mr Tran had a big day today, which is a positive sign for the market for those who follow the Dow Theory.


    TRAN.png

    Mr Tran was up 105 points, or 1.3% on the day, with a big candle higher. The airlines were up big today, which added the juice necessary for the big gain.

    Dow Theory, for those who may not know, is that both the Dow Industrials and Transports should move higher together to confirm a bull market. If one of them does not move higher, (usually the Transports), the theory is that the negative divergence could spell trouble for the markets.

    The above graph shows candlesticks for Mr Tran, and the thick black line for the Industrials. As you can see, Mr Tran still has some catching up to do with the DJIA, but today's strong candle points it in the right direction.

    Meanwhile, today's mixed market didn't move any of the oscillators I track, so the composite system remains at -1. The Nasdaq has had three days in a row higher, so it's looking the best of the main indices I watch. Keep your eye on it to see if it leads the rest of the market higher.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. #4358

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Coiling, coiling, coiling...


    spx.png

    S&P is still within the 2% range since mid July. I think Sam Stovall is right about the market going south before heading higher. I just don't know what it's going to take to get that move lower. Black swan event?

    With this being an election year, the Fed is likely to keep rates stable, at least until after the election. Maybe we'll just float along until then? (Highly doubtful).

    Note the BB width at the bottom of the chart; a teeny 1.1. Can't get too much more narrow than that! BB width for bonds look very similar.

    Composite system remains at -1, a hold/sell. I'll be keeping my eye on the Nasdaq and Mr Tran tomorrow to see if either of them lead the market higher... or lower.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  5. #4359

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    Coiling, coiling, coiling...
    Coiling like a hissing snake! Wow, that was a rough day for equities. S&P broke that 2% barrier in big fashion:


    spx.png

    From best to worst, for comparison purposes:

    Dow -2.13%
    S&P -2.45%
    Nasdaq -2.54%
    R2K -3.11%
    Mr Tran -3.15%
    Utilites -3.76%

    The VIX made a HUUUGE candle higher, up 40% on the day. Looks like volatility is back!

    Sam Stovall was right, and the market played the odds as planned. The puzzling thing was there was no flight to the safety of bonds, as yields went much higher today. Go figure.

    Now the question becomes... is this the start of a pullback, or a more serious correction? And all because of the Fed jawboning about a possible rate hike??? Gimme a break. The last time the Fed raised rates, the market went... higher! Go figure, again!

    In any event, the composite system now stands at -3, a full sell signal.

    I hope to get a chance to post some charts this weekend looking at the longer term perspective.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  7. #4360

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Just a quick look at the weekly view of the S&P, and a possible future scenario to keep in mind:


    spx.png

    S&P lost 52 points on the week, and is short term oversold. On the 60 min chart, the S&P has a RSI under 16, which is very oversold. Although futures are pointing to a lower market tomorrow morning (Dow -111 points as of this post), I wouldn't be surprised to see buyers step in to take the market higher by closing.

    David Larew has been talking about George Lindsay's "3 peaks and a domed house" pattern, which fits the above chart to a T. I expect a lot of choppy action in the days and weeks ahead, but the wouldn't be surprised to see a general trend that looks similar to the above chart.

    If the market tanks over the next month or so, it could also have political implications, as the incumbent party could be considered to blame for the "poor economic conditions", ie, market correction. Could make for some interesting corollary developments. Buckle your seatbelts, it could be a wild ride!

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #4361

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    S&P lost 52 points on the week, and is short term oversold. On the 60 min chart, the S&P has a RSI under 16, which is very oversold. Although futures are pointing to a lower market tomorrow morning (Dow -111 points as of this post), I wouldn't be surprised to see buyers step in to take the market higher by closing.
    As expected, we got our oversold bounce. Here's how the S&P looks now, from the broken neckline:


    spx.jpg

    Looks like we've bounced back up to previous support at the neckline. (Previous support becomes resistance). If the market can take that neckline out convincingly, then the bulls have the upper edge. If not, expect more downside in the near future.

    Oil looks like it's continuing it's volatile move lower, so my guess is the market will follow suit. I find it rather amazing that the Fed merely hints at a rate hike, and the market tanks, and the next trading day, they ease up the talk, and the market skyrockets. Ridiculous.

    Composite system remains at -3.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  11. #4362

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Another big down day. (It would have been a REALLY bad day if AAPL hadn't jumped higher by 2.4%! That saved the market from being down over 300 points).

    Doesn't look like that neckline resistance wants to be taken out. At least not at this point:


    spx.png

    Oscillators are looking weaker by the day. I still think that the Fed is NOT going to raise interest rates before the election. Just too politically risky. So I think the market will skyrocket when they make the announcement that there will be no raising of interest rates at least until December. Until then, bad news is good news, and good news is bad news.

    Composite system remains at -3.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

  12.  
  13. #4363

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    I'm positioned for the market to skyrocket, so lets get at it!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  14.  
  15. #4364

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    60 minute chart is detailing a bearish descending triangle:


    spx.png

    If prices crack below the bottom of that triangle near 2120, we could see a more significant decline. A gap fill and return to the 2180 area would negate this pattern.

    Once again, we had AAPL (+3.54%) saving the indicies from a more significant decline. Bullish percent indicies for both the Nasdaq and S&P have cracked the 20 DMA, and are heading lower. Not a good sign. Oil took a beating today as well.

    Oscillators remain negative, and the composite system remains at -3.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

  16.  
  17. #4365

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
    Posts
    3,504

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Yep, 2120 is the line in the sand. As long as we hold that line, we've got a fighting chance. snort snort...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark


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  19. #4366

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Nice little 1% rally today, but not enough to clear the previous high.


    spx.png

    I moved the upper line of the descending triangle to fit today's prices. AAPL has once again saved this market. Nasdaq is looking very strong.

    The market needs to clear the previous high at 2163 to give the bulls a leg to stand on. Otherwise, it still looks like the market has a negative bias.

    If you haven't seen a chart of AAPL lately, it's pretty impressive:


    aapl.png

    Note the volume on that launch higher. Obviously that trajectory can't be sustained forever, so I'd expect a pullback soon.

    Meanwhile, the composite system remains at -3.

    Good luck!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  21. #4367

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Yep, 2120 is the line in the sand. As long as we hold that line, we've got a fighting chance. snort snort...

    Haven't heard much snorting around here in quite a while. Sounds like you're quite bullish, eh?
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  23. #4368

    Default Re: MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

    Updated 60 min chart is showing that the bearish descending triangle is still intact:


    spx.png

    Prices moved lower into the triangle, so we'll need to resolve it, most likely by next week. Today's headline news was mostly about Deutsche Bank (DB) getting hit with a $14 Billion fine. Yikes, that'll hurt. DB was down over 9% on the news. Banks and financial companies were hit hard, but there was red all over the US Industry Indicies. Virtually every major international index was down, led by Italy (-3.23%) and Germany (-2.22%).

    As expected, AAPL had a pullback, although it was small. Bonds (AGG) appear to be forming a bottom cup as yields look like they may have formed a short term peak.

    The VIX, which had been over 20 this week, has now dropped to 15.37, and has triggered a bullish crossover. My composite system now stands at -1, a sell/hold signal.

    I have a busy weekend planned, but hope to look at some long term charts and get them posted.

    Hope you enjoy the last full weekend of summer!
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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