MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-25-2011, 11:10 PM

Which fund should you be in? C, S, F, or I? (No, I'm not in the G Fund currently).

Here's how I analyze which fund to be in...

S vs C.png

Rather than look at all four stock funds, let's take a look at just two for now.

This is a basic relative strength analysis of the S Fund vs the C Fund. When the S Fund is outperforming the C Fund, the dotted line (and moving averages) will be heading higher. When the C Fund is outperforming the S Fund, the dotted line (and moving averages) will be heading lower.

As you can see from the graph, since mid July, the S Fund has been lagging the performance of the C Fund (line heading lower). The small cap stock fund bottomed on October 1, and is beginning to show positive relative strength compared to large cap stocks. You can see the 5 day EMA bottoming and heading higher as well. Price action continues to pull the 5 day EMA higher.

This has almost always been the case. When the market turns positive, and I get a "Buy" signal, it's usually been best to go fully into the small cap fund. It's usually the fund that has been beaten down the hardest, and is usually the fund that outperforms the others when the market turns positive (as it has now).

My allocation is currently 45% S, 45% C, and 10% I.

I'll keep my eyes on the market over the course of the next week or so to see if the market continues to move higher. If it does, I may go 100% S.

Hope this helps!

John Ross

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-26-2011, 10:21 PM

Look at this Hedge Fund manager's performance. What a pile of ****. And this guy makes how many millions?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presen...on-relative-sp

**Afishegg** · 10-27-2011, 06:50 AM

I'm rubbing pine resin on my hands right now, this rocket (S)hip is about to blast off to kingdom come. S funders are gonna get a nice boost today. I'm very interested to know how the I fund will perform today. Now the question is how will the markets play out for the next couple of weeks? Months? I mean the 800 lb gorrilla seems to have been taken care of, so what could become the new monster out there. Anyhow I'm just happy we have finally gotten a deal out of Europe.

**Sensei** · 10-27-2011, 07:10 AM

Originally Posted by Afishegg

I'm rubbing pine resin on my hands right now, this rocket (S)hip is about to blast off to kingdom come. S funders are gonna get a nice boost today. I'm very interested to know how the I fund will perform today. Now the question is how will the markets play out for the next couple of weeks? Months? I mean the 800 lb gorrilla seems to have been taken care of, so what could become the new monster out there. Anyhow I'm just happy we have finally gotten a deal out of Europe.

Sshhh! Don't jinx it!

**Happy_Trails** · 10-27-2011, 07:13 AM

Originally Posted by Afishegg

I'm rubbing pine resin on my hands right now, this rocket (S)hip is about to blast off to kingdom come. S funders are gonna get a nice boost today. I'm very interested to know how the I fund will perform today. Now the question is how will the markets play out for the next couple of weeks? Months? I mean the 800 lb gorrilla seems to have been taken care of, so what could become the new monster out there. Anyhow I'm just happy we have finally gotten a deal out of Europe.

The debt cutting committee not being able to reach a consensus on budget cuts.

**Afishegg** · 10-27-2011, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by Happy Trails

The debt cutting committee not being able to reach a consensus on budget cuts.

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-27-2011, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by Afishegg

I'm rubbing pine resin on my hands right now, this rocket (S)hip is about to blast off to kingdom come. S funders are gonna get a nice boost today. I'm very interested to know how the I fund will perform today. Now the question is how will the markets play out for the next couple of weeks? Months? I mean the 800 lb gorrilla seems to have been taken care of, so what could become the new monster out there. Anyhow I'm just happy we have finally gotten a deal out of Europe.

Nice ride indeed. With an hour left to trade, here's how we're shaping up...

C Fund: +3.55%
S Fund: +4.55%
I Fund: +5.68%

My 3X (brokerage) account: +16.7%

Give me a bigger rake please. Lolz.

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-27-2011, 01:56 PM

Hmmm. I wonder who's sitting in cash today.

**Happy_Trails** · 10-27-2011, 02:07 PM

Does your system remain on a buy after today's explosion?

I am one of the guys sitting in cash, at least until tomorrow when I will be in the market. Happy trading.

HT

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-27-2011, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by Happy Trails

Does your system remain on a buy after today's explosion?

I am one of the guys sitting in cash, at least until tomorrow when I will be in the market. Happy trading.

HT

Hey Happy Trails,

My Timing System went back into the market on 10/12. It remains fully invested until my indicators flash a sell signal. I don't see that happening soon, but you never know. If anything, today's action just provides more fuel to the fire for the bull market. That being said, I would not be at all surprised to see a drop of a hundred points tomorrow. Two steps forward, one step back... that's the nature of the markets. I don't worry about the the day to day gyrations. As long as I stay on the correct side of major market trends, I'll be happy. Stay tuned for weekly updates, and I will always post when my signals indicate a change.

Hope that helps,

John Ross

**Happy_Trails** · 10-27-2011, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Hey Happy Trails,

My Timing System went back into the market on 10/12. It remains fully invested until my indicators flash a sell signal. I don't see that happening soon, but you never know. If anything, today's action just provides more fuel to the fire for the bull market. That being said, I would not be at all surprised to see a drop of a hundred points tomorrow. Two steps forward, one step back... that's the nature of the markets. I don't worry about the the day to day gyrations. As long as I stay on the correct side of major market trends, I'll be happy. Stay tuned for weekly updates, and I will always post when my signals indicate a change.

Hope that helps,

John Ross

Thanks, John.

**MrJohnRoss** · 10-29-2011, 08:18 PM

Here's the weekly updated performance graph of my Timing System compared to the S&P 500:

Timing Chart.jpg

Since 1/1/2007, a $100,000 account fully invested in the S&P 500 would be worth $90,608.

Since 1/1/2007, a $100,000 account using my Timing System would be worth $194,223.

To your success,

John Ross

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)	BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time)
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