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Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 5 of 5
  1. coolhand
    01-04-2010 10:00 PM
    coolhand
    YW guyschultz. I'm hoping it becomes a useful tool.
  2. guyschultz
    01-04-2010 09:29 PM
    guyschultz
    Just wanted to give a quick thanks for the chart you posted with the top 15 traders. it gives newbies like me another tool to ponder as we try and make the most out of our TSP
  3. ballnoutacontrol
    10-01-2009 12:10 AM
    ballnoutacontrol
    Nevermind, I see tractor is back on the tracker.
  4. coolhand
    10-01-2009 12:04 AM
    coolhand
    Risk is relative and based on each persons perceptions of the indicators they are looking at. You are correct in that they are up so far they may be willing to take more risk, and that they tend to make fewer IFTs. But we don't have many IFTs to begin with, so deploying a longer term strategy is an attractive option.

    The top 25% is a fairly large sample, which equates to the top 47 members. I am only looking for trends in their collective trading strategy. If I see cash positions begin to rise then I know bearishness is beginning to seep in. The opposite would be true for stock levels. So it's only a gauge and not something I necessarily hang my hat on. I need much more time to get a better feel for how accurate this method will be in the long run and how it can be used.

    Tractor is still in the top 25%. I just checked.
  5. ballnoutacontrol
    09-30-2009 11:48 PM
    ballnoutacontrol
    Coolhand, I have been wondering about the top 25%. I think they are taking quite a bit of risk by staying in the market and I think the reason might be because they are so far into the positive that they aren't worried about losing a few%. Personally I think it will take a pretty sound move down to get the top 25 to budge.

    Also some of the top 25% don't seem to be actually trading(very few IFT's) Maybe the top 25% that you are tracking should be hand chosen in an attempt to be more accurate.

    Do you know where tractor went? I noticed he wasn't on the tracker anymore. Was it because his account was inactive so he got pulled?

    THanks, Ball'n

About Me

  • About coolhand
    Biography
    Retired Navy
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Interests
    Fishing and traveling
    Occupation
    Logistician
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    pub-8597864803821305
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    My Blog \ http://sevensentinels.com/
    Current Allocation: 100% G fund

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Latest Blog Entry

Posted Yesterday at 11:07 PM by coolhand Comments 0
Posted in Uncategorized
Stocks extended their gains for the second day in row, which really gets September off to a bang. But the non-farm payrolls looms on the horizon. How will the market react to those numbers?

We remain very overbought, so some selling would seem to be in cards at this point, but I would not rule out another run to the upside tomorrow as we head into the Labor Day weekend. It's what happens next week that's of primary interest to me, but I am expecting to see stocks give some of their...

Posted Yesterday at 12:04 AM by coolhand Comments 4
Posted in Uncategorized
I'm not surprised by the rally, but once again the market overdoes it in a big way. This time to the upside. And now we're very overbought in the short term.

So what was the excuse for the rally this time?
Well, the August ISM Manufacturing Index posted a 56.3, which was well above the expected 52.9. And apparently the market ignored the August ADP Employment Change report, which showed that private payrolls fell by 10,000 last month, instead of an an expected increase of...

Posted 08-31-2010 at 10:43 PM by coolhand Comments 8
Posted in Uncategorized
Yesterday I said that the Seven Sentinels were suggesting yet another bounce after Monday's sell-off and low and behold we got a bit of a rally. Of course it was an intra-day rally, but it was a rally none-the-less.

So is that it? Probably not. I suspect another pop higher is still in the cards, but the unemployment report is looming later this week, so it's a difficult call to predict what may happen.

Here's today's charts:

Attachment 1791
...

Posted 08-30-2010 at 11:09 PM by coolhand Comments 0
Posted in Uncategorized
I had anticipated a gap up this morning that would eventually give way to selling pressure as the day wore on. Well, we didn't get a gap up after Friday's bull rout, but we certainly saw some selling pressure as the day wore on. That should tell you something. Namely, that this is now a bear market and gains evaporate quickly and also that this market is getting weaker.

Here's the charts:

Attachment 1787

Back to the trigger point on NAMO and NYMO....

Posted 08-30-2010 at 12:37 AM by coolhand Comments 0
Posted in Uncategorized
Cash levels rose again last week. Are we too bearish?

Attachment 1777
Attachment 1778

Top 50 is showing only about 22% allocation to stocks, with cash levels dipping modestly.

Attachment 1779
Attachment 1780

The Total Tracker saw cash levels rise, in this case for the third consecutive week.

Attachment 1781

The Top 15 appear to be the most bullish of the three charts...
Recent Comments
So judging by your analogies...
Posted Yesterday at 08:20 PM by coolhand coolhand is offline
The rally yesterday...
Posted Yesterday at 02:56 PM by paradocs paradocs is offline
you keep one eye on...
Posted Yesterday at 03:00 AM by crws crws is offline
Would you find a set...
Posted Yesterday at 12:25 AM by Birchtree Birchtree is offline
Thanks for the post...
Posted 09-01-2010 at 08:10 PM by coolhand coolhand is offline

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