Thread: looking toward retirment so getting very aggressive with my TSP.

Welcome CB. There are several folks on the forum that I think are very astute and successful investors. I would suggest looking at the top 100 in the Autotracker (find a few who post) and follow their moves to get a sense of when they move in and out and work to understand why. It could be a spike (or big decline) in oil prices, strong GDP, whatever that drives their decision...After a time you begin to get a sense of why people make the investment decisions they do. There are several folks who contribute routinely (Whipsaw, Tsunami, Bquat, JTH, Clester, Burro, Fireweather, Cactus, Dreamboat Annie, Frixx, Boghie...to name a few). They provide helpful information.

Because you're time frame is so short, you might consider one of the Premium services. That takes the work out of it for you and you get your signals from someone who understands the markets. You might inquire a bit because I understand they all have a different trading styles, but well worth the minimal investment monthly.

Best of luck to you.

FS

CrgButcher,

Welcome aboard. This is a great place to learn. What FS said is some good advice. I would also agree that with your short window you might want to research out one of the Premium Services to see if that would maximize your TSP account. Good Luck in 2016.

Welcome to the Forum CrgButcher, I hope you can make your goal by retirement.
Best of luck with your TSP!!
Norman

Originally Posted by CrgButcher

Hi Everyone. This last year really, really sucked for me on my TSP. I started in the TSP very late in the game, about 15 years ago when I noticed I only had about $13,000 in there after 18 years of service, so I decide I'd better do something about it and increased my contributions to the 5%. However, until just a couple of years ago, I still haven't paid too much attention to my TSP, though I have noticed that it has been increasing. A few of years ago, I decided to get serious with it though and have been watching it on a daily basis, very religiously and have been doing so well at it I began to get cocky but then this last year (2015) came along and it seemed that nothing went the way I thought it would go and all I have to show for my troubles is my own contributions and what my employer matches. It ended flat, and looking back, really shouldn't have. So, here I sit, needless to say, very humbled and decided that if I was going to have anything in my TSP when I retire in about 6 years, I need to see what others that are succeeding are doing and why. I have a somewhat rudimentary understanding of how the market works, I am just not up on the key dates to watch for. My intent is to be very aggressive with my TSP for the next 7 years. I currently have around $65,000 in there and my goal is to have $250,000 in there by the time I retire in 6 years. Any help and advice you all can give me will be thankfully received.

CB hate to say it but your only realistic shot at your goal is to load up on the contributions! Obviously astute investing moves will help but the contributions are key!! Also, work an extra year or two. Good luck!!!!

Not sure that I agree with you. I've seen my TSP take some pretty big jumps. For instances, June 2014, I had a balance of roughly 60000. I took out a tsp loan for $15,000, leaving me a balance of 45000. By the end of 2014, My balance was back up to 54786.00 and only half of that was contribution and loan payment. Even if I manage to repeat this last year, which really sucked, for the next 6 years, I will be able to reach $153,000. Granted, it's not the $250,000 I was trying for but it's still a good gain.

Originally Posted by CrgButcher

Not sure that I agree with you. I've seen my TSP take some pretty big jumps. For instances, June 2014, I had a balance of roughly 60000. I took out a tsp loan for $15,000, leaving me a balance of 45000. By the end of 2014, My balance was back up to 54786.00 and only half of that was contribution and loan payment. Even if I manage to repeat this last year, which really sucked, for the next 6 years, I will be able to reach $153,000. Granted, it's not the $250,000 I was trying for but it's still a good gain.

CB,

Ok, based on what you have written, you had about $55K to start 2015.
You earned 0.18% based on the AutoTrader and commentary
You ended up with about $65k for 2015

That means that your contributions, your match, and your loan repayment totaled about $10K.

Thus, if you earn 0.18%/year and contribute $10K/year (increasing by inflation) you will end up with a $129K retirement nest egg after six years.
However, if you earn 5%/year, contribute $10K/year (increasing by inflation) you will end up with a $158K retirement nest egg after six years.
Lastly, if you earn 10%/year, contribute $10K/year (increasing by inflation) you will end up with a $196K retirement nest egg after six years.

You will have to increase your contributions to end up at $250K after 6 years.

Regarding 2014 returns, if you sat in the C Fund, was an oddity - not a normality. Don't base your numbers on that. You can use Tom's AutoTrader to review performance of our great unwashed since 2007 - how many average 10%/year? Out of those few who average double digits, how many lost a huge chunk in 2008?

You have two issues.

1. You are nearing your desired retirement age. You should be securing your nest egg - not placing it at great risk. You are not a 22 year old who can weather a 2008 while playing pool and partying with friends every night. They could have slept through 2008, looked at their balances at the end of 2010 on a lark with friends, and felt alright. Can you take a 12% hit in two days and not worry too much about it? (By the way, that happened to me). If you need your $160K at retirement you cannot take the risk associated with gaining 10%/year at this point. If you are BT and don't need it you can.
2. Market Timing is for very good and very knowledgeable investors/traders - not rookies. The good market timers - here and more importantly on Wall Street - will eat you and buy Rolexes with your retirement assets (not directly, of course. Their earnings will be your losses). If you market time your entire asset base you are speculating. And, based on your commentary I would be concerned about that. If that is how you want to attempt to build your nest egg I would strongly recommend a Premium Subscription. Then I would strongly - emphasize strongly - look at the risks associated with the various Premium Service trading philosophies. Review their returns in 2008 (and probably more importantly 2011, 2015) and see if you could stomach that return. If you cannot then you will end up not following the strategy - which is bad, very bad...

Regarding Point (2) above. Speculators and market timers trade often and trade risky. It is rather easy to sit in the 'C Fund' and make good (but very variant) returns. From 2008/01/01 the 'C-Fund' has averaged an 8.76% return - but has a risk of 21.44%. Those are big, big swings. So, if you are a drowsy 20 year old you stayed in the 'C Fund' for all 8 years and earned your 8.76% - even when it dumped 37% in one year. If you are a concerned 58 year old and watch a +11% go to a -5% in two days in 2008 what would you do. If that happened unexpectedly when you were 64, sitting on $170K and happily counting your pile of loot, your $170K turned into $143K before you could trade out. What I am saying is that if you need much of the $170K you had best not be in the C/S/I funds when you are 64 - so how are you to make 10%/year.