Thread: Early birds' jobs number guess

Originally Posted by Minnow

I see a few early birds awake with me. Wanna play the guessing game?

Best guess on today's Non farm payrolls number... I think the consensus is around 175-185,000 lost. Goldman revised their guess to around 250K from 200K...

Your best guess goes here.

Go ahead and briefly say how you think the market will react if you wish or just throw the number out there and let the chips fall where they may.

I'm going with 225,000K lost... and the market finishes flat to slightly down.

Good luck... less than 1 1/2 hr. till the numbers are out.

228K

-237K

Dow down 80 EOD.

And the actual number is -263K

Job number losses by sector. Unfortunately, manufacturing in these flash reports is only split into durable and non-durable, which is of limited use if you want to know about a certain sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33132865#

Originally Posted by Minnow

Wanna play the guessing game?

Man ! I hate to say this BUT -- I think whatever number they come up with:

is a far cry from the truth

is based on deliberately distorted figures

is wholly meant to foster hope and put everyone 'at ease'

is grounded in political BS

is a continance of Media Driven 'veils' to function as candy coating

Originally Posted by Steadygain

Man ! I hate to say this BUT -- I think whatever number they come up with:

is a far cry from the truth

is based on deliberately distorted figures

is wholly meant to foster hope and put everyone 'at ease'

is grounded in political BS

is a continance of Media Driven 'veils' to function as candy coating

No worries Steady,

"The truth is out there"- Xfiles

Originally Posted by Steadygain

Man ! I hate to say this BUT -- I think whatever number they come up with:

is a far cry from the truth

is based on deliberately distorted figures

is wholly meant to foster hope and put everyone 'at ease'

is grounded in political BS

is a continance of Media Driven 'veils' to function as candy coating

Steady,

You are right on target.

It's never 100%, it's what they have at the time. The "final" version put out months later is the only one that counts for me. But that's not so helpful for investing since it's rear view mirror by the time the final comes out.

Originally Posted by Silverbird

It's never 100%, it's what they have at the time. The "final" version put out months later is the only one that counts for me. But that's not so helpful for investing since it's rear view mirror by the time the final comes out.

+1 Silverbird
Nail on head, Because of it's lag, it is hard to tell. I use it to forecast Consumer numbers for future $ strength.

More people working, more dollars, usually, more strength.

Originally Posted by Silverbird

It's never 100%, it's what they have at the time. The "final" version put out months later is the only one that counts for me. But that's not so helpful for investing since it's rear view mirror by the time the final comes out.

That's a good assessment

But the numbers DO NOT reflect a huge population that is forced from gainfull employment to bare subsidy

Does not show all the ones forced to part time and with that losing all the benefits they formerly had

Does not reflect 'accurately' what is really happening to the General Population and completly ignores the real struggles and hardships many have to contend with.

On the other side of the coin are the ones who could be working; even for a fraction of what they previously made but refuse to.

Frixxxx - great minds think alike - we were writting at the same time

All true, Steady. But there is no way to track those issues without an extensive questionairre of everyone who's of employment age. So...it's not a complete picture, but the only one easily tracked through existing data.