Thread: How will you handle the 2 transactions if it goes through?

I would most likely follow Sentiment Survey with some variations, while waiting to see if Ebb could adapt his system to the requirements.

The whole time fumming about the "manage your own account lie" we were fed.

We've got some pretty sharp people on this board, me not being one of them. We may not be as flexible and even less nimble, but I feel like something will develop that we can use, but make no mistake, we are going to be handcuffed and may be forced to sit in the G or go to a Life Cycle Fund ie L2040, until our month in jail is over. A lot will depend on the type of market we are facing.

CB

I just read "Invest like a Shark" - I will try to incorporate some of what I read there.

take $50k loan OUT of TSP (hear that, Barclay?) and sell more S&P options credit spreads. Up 25% in past 5 months, minimal management time, +6.5% this month, +2.5% worst month.

Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER

take $50k loan OUT of TSP (hear that, Barclay?) and sell more S&P options credit spreads. Up 25% in past 5 months, minimal management time, +6.5% this month, +2.5% worst month.

Or take out a $50K TSP loan and short the crap out of Barclays and the financials.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Or take out a $50K TSP loan and short the crap out of Barclays and the financials.

Wouldn't do that. Financials will be up huge in 2008. My best guess is close to 30%! I'll save this post and revisit it in Decmeber 08.

Originally Posted by BlueMax

I would most likely follow Sentiment Survey with some variations...

The survey system does tell us we can outperform the market (+22.86% so far in 2007) with some well timed trades, but without making excessive transfers (16 total in 2007).

In 2006 it was up 28%, coincidentally also making only 16 transfers.

If you do use it, I'd suggest keeping it low. I have a feeling the more we push it, the more it could change. Either with people trying to manipulate the results by voting many times, or not answering correctly to try to mess with us, etc. That's why, while I do talk about the new signals, I don't pound the table on this system. It is based on us being wrong (the dumb money) and that might not be taken well.

That said, don't count us out yet. In an email from Greg Long (TSP director) he told me, "You know where I stand, but we are willing to listen to opposing views and different approaches. "

It's a start.

Originally Posted by ATCJeff

Wouldn't do that. Financials will be up huge in 2008. My best guess is close to 30%! I'll save this post and revisit it in Decmeber 08.

30%? The super fund fell through for a reason.

IMO, we're about to witness Enron X 1000. The financials will have to come up with another scam soon.

The 2 transfer system.

Here are 2 possible plans that come to mind: Plan A, retired. Plan B not retired.

See how the 2 transfer system works?? If it doesn't work go to A or B.

A. Option: Transfer the funds out of TSP to a deferred account with a internet broker, or your choise.

B. Option: Change allocations with TSP to min. 5%. Manually make payroll deposits to a deferred account with a internet broker, or your choise.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The survey system does tell us we can outperform the market (+22.86% so far in 2007) with some well times trades, but without making excessive transfers (16 total in 2007).

In 2006 it was up 28%, coincidentally also making only 16 transfers.

If you do use it, I'd suggest keeping it low. I have a feeling the more we push it, the more it could change. Either with people trying to manipulate the results by voting many times, or not answering correctly to try to mess with us, etc. That's why, while I do talk about the new signals, I don't pound the table on this system. It is based on us being wrong (the dumb money) and that might not be taken well.

That said, don't count us out yet. In an email from Greg Long (TSP director) he told me, "You know where I stand, but we are willing to listen to opposing views and different approaches. "

It's a start.

Just wait till TSP sees a huge number of IFT's on Friday mornings then the men in black will come and visit Tom.

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

The super fund fell through for a reason.

But was the superfund really a bust? It gave investors hope and caused people take a step back to think which may have prevented a mass market selloff. At the time it was nothing more than a knee jerk reaction but helped that it was endorsed by Paulson. When first mentioned it was to be worth $100 Billion. Even if it were to happen today, it would only need a fraction of that.