Some folks believe our current bull rally is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872. Laszlo Birinyi has said the average length and size of bull markets suggest the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. This rally should continue another 32 months.
Excellent comparison based on if the economic indicators duplicate the fears and conditions those markets faced.
I believe that steady growth is not in the future for the next two years....but could be two years AFTER....Based on 6% growth 2016 should usher in a 16,000 no problem.
But if another predicted correction occurs, all bets off.
Thanks for keeping us honest Birch!
THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
Tracker = Check my position
Tom
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I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
Tracker = Check my position
Was everyone this optimisitic at the start of '08. The mortgage crisis appeared to sneak up on everybody then. I'm wondering if inflation will sneak up on us the same way with the Bernank' s printing of money.
Nice catch Tom. I was going to say the same thing. But, if you can't say it any better than be quiet... Yuk, yuk...
Anyway, the mortgage crisis didn't sneak up. It was right in your face by late 2007. Greed kept many of us in the market.
Inflation won't sneak up on us either. We have to be in equities to stay ahead of that bear. Amoeba should slow him down
Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!
Even Calpers is revising down their expected return, though not enough probably. I think it's now something around 7% but they seem to accept that's possibly optimistic. Maybe 5% will turn out to be bullish after we get through the current enthusiasm. The real bet should be on what the DOW will be December 24, 2012, if we have the weekend after the 21st.
Thank you. The proof will be there...
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