Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 14

Thread: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

  1. #1

    Default Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    I decided to put this in it's own thread instead of hijacking the LMBFM thread.

    My theory is that if you choose to invest in the second best performing fund of the prior month, you will catch a lot of trends before they peak.
    I think my math must be off somewhat, but here are the returns I've calculated so far.

    2009: 42.84% as of COB December 29
    2008: -8.49%
    2007: 1.18%
    2006: 22.46%
    2005: -3.03%



    End of month for December 2009:

    G= +0.25%
    F= -1.51%
    C= +1.98%
    S= + 6.66%
    I = + 0.81%

    Anyone using the last month's best fund method would invest for January in the S fund. Using my theory, you would invest 100% into the C fund.

    My goals for this theory (should it continue the way it has been) is to a) beat the LMBFM, yet b) be just as easy to implement. If anyone has any thoughts or ways to refine it, let me know!


  2.  
  3. #2

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Fulton, TX USA
    Posts
    2,336

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    [QUOTE: Beafet : imported from LMBFMS #164] No, I was talking about Last Month's Best Fund YTD numbers...I started a new thread for the second best one. I didn't want to hijack this one anymore!
    [/QUOTE]

    Since everyone seems to be working on Last Month's Best Fund method,
    is that to say this one - 2nd best - has lost its attraction/validity?
    Or just hasn't had the back-tracking the other one has?
    Thank you, Beafet, for your posting of this different type of strategy -

  4.  
  5. #3

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    I can't speak for anyone else, but it would probably help if I were to be able to back track this theory more accurately. I realized I'm not sure what I'm doing. If anyone wants to help guide me through it, I am game!

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,430
    Blog Entries
    297

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    There is a problem with both the Best month and second best month and that's the lack of back-testing data. There is a hugh difference between backtesting a year's worth of daily charts vs 12 months. IMHO A decent backtest should have at least 10 years worth of data during multiple periods of time. We can't get that much data with the TSP funds, so I'd advise caution.

    JMHO
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    192

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    Quote Originally Posted by beafet View Post
    I decided to put this in it's own thread instead of hijacking the LMBFM thread.

    My theory is that if you choose to invest in the second best performing fund of the prior month, you will catch a lot of trends before they peak.
    I think my math must be off somewhat, but here are the returns I've calculated so far.

    2009: 42.84% as of COB December 29
    2008: -8.49%
    2007: 1.18%
    2006: 22.46%
    2005: -3.03%



    End of month for December 2009:

    G= +0.25%
    F= -1.51%
    C= +1.98%
    S= + 6.66%
    I = + 0.81%

    Anyone using the last month's best fund method would invest for January in the S fund. Using my theory, you would invest 100% into the C fund.

    My goals for this theory (should it continue the way it has been) is to a) beat the LMBFM, yet b) be just as easy to implement. If anyone has any thoughts or ways to refine it, let me know!
    beafet, I like the idea. I decided to check it out further back...

    2001: +13%
    2002: -5.58%
    2003: +48.8%
    2004: +17.3%
    2005: -3.03%
    2006: +19.06%
    2007: +4.39%
    2008: -8.49%
    2009: +43.08%


    2001-2009: 194.03%

    Looks good to me!

    Some of my yearly totals are off from yours, but I would be glad to compare numbers.

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    I get a 14.8% average annual return...does that sound right? And how does that compare to the markets in that time? 14.8 a year sounds good to me! I wish we could take it all the way back to 1988, but I can be happy with what we got!

  12.  
  13. #7

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    Alright, if you are following the recommendations made by the Last Month's Second Best Fund Method, for February we are putting 100% into the G fund.

  14.  
  15. #8

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    100% into C for March!

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    100% into I for April. Until the end of the month it looked like it would be C again.


  18.  
  19. #10

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    Looks like beafet lost interest in continuing this.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  20.  
  21. #11

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,430
    Blog Entries
    297

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Looks like beafet lost interest in continuing this.
    It's easy to lose interest in something in the pursuit of something better.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  22.  
  23. #12

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    12,620
    Blog Entries
    143

    Default Re: Last Month's Second Best Fund Method

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    It's easy to lose interest in something in the pursuit of something better.
    Looking at the whipsaw action it incurred those few months, I can understand why.

  24.  
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Last Month's Second Best Fund Method
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Last Month's Second Best Fund Method
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Last Month's Second Best Fund Method
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Last Month's Second Best Fund Method
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes