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Thread: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

  1. Default Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    thanks guys....

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  3. #290

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    Default Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    OK- We got a signal this week- if the last week is any indication, we're moving into some new territory.

    The "Last Month Best Fund" method shows that in June, "I" fund was best at over a 7% return. That's pretty unusual, but the "I" does get wild swings from time to time. So we'll follow the pattern indicator and go for it.

    A full 100% switch IFT transfer out of "F" and into "I" by noon on Monday is indicated. Let's cross our fingers and hope it works.

    tsplmbm-06-12.jpg

    MOVING TO "I"

    Year to date return is now sitting at: +7.48%. Not bad.

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  5. Question Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei View Post
    Thanks for doing the legwork, Tomcat!

    It makes sense that C would not lead in consecutive months, because if it leads going into a rally in the next month, more than likely the S or I fund would overtake it. If it leads going into a slump in the next month, usually F or G would replace it.

    I don't faithfully follow LMBF, but if I did, I would tweak it so that any month that a stock fund leads would give a "buy S" signal. Any month that a non-stock fund leads would give a "buy F" signal. More agressive that way, I think. Of course, that would mean more risk.
    Interesting tweak. Have you backtested it and see how it has tracked with the LMBF?

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  7. #292

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    Default Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    Quote Originally Posted by matrix452 View Post
    Interesting tweak. Have you backtested it and see how it has tracked with the LMBF?
    No, I haven't had time recently to do any backtesting. For the reasons I explained, I would never follow this system into C, and I simply don't trust I (not a good reason, I know ). There's not a whole lot of risk in F vs. G, but this system rarely goes G since that would require stocks and bonds to both be in the red for an entire month. Has happened though.

    Anyway, backtesting would be prudent, yes.

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  9. Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    ok, just got on board with the IFT into I fund.......not to confortable with I fund but got to be willing to play along with LMBF.

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  11. Default Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    go figure....once i start this strategy, i start off with the I fund which is taking a beating....hopefully it turns around in this last week.....guess that is the risk we pay

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  13. #295

    Default Re: Contribution Allocation Questions

    The market never stops testing us.

    Good luck!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Move to C Fund?

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  17. #297

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Yes. Sorry, I wasn't paying attention again. Yes, last month the best fund was "C", so we move to "C" effective COB today. I screwed up and forgot to post it before noon today. My bad.

    Here is the chart:

    07-31-2012.JPG


    Last Month the "C" fund was up 1.4%, so that's where we move to.

    Good luck out there.

    The official "TSPTALK TRACKER" return, year to date, for the Last Month Best Fund method, is now a return of 7.79% .


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  19. #298

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    "S" Fund it is, 3.57%. So with a holiday is it going to be in effect tomorrow?

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  21. #299

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    My understanding of the system, you place trade before deadline tomorrow. C Fund Tuesday, S Fund Wednesday.
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  23. #300

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    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Looks like "S" fund did it again, with a nice return in August of 3.57%. We're sitting now ready to make an IFT before noon today- to move into "S" fund. *(We were sitting in "C").

    For the year, we're at 10.39% gain so far, which isn't bad.

    Last Month Best Fund moves to "S" fund - IFT before noon, effective to "S" at COB today.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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