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Thread: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

  1. #145

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by beafet View Post
    Again, if my math is correct, 2008 was a return of -11.34%
    I actually get -29.35% for 2008.

    But that is without using G and F at all - Isn't that what you had said, or did I misunderstand?

    Each month, put 100% into the fund that was last month's second best fund..
    UNLESS, if the second best fund was G or F, then put 100% into the fund that was last month's best among C, S, or I.
    Here's the spreadsheet. I may have done it incorrectly...
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #146

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    No, sorry about the confusion. When I said "(my 2nd best fund theory, no exceptions)" I meant that you always choose the 2nd best fund, without exception. Even if that would be a G or F. Sorry about that. Your point about always being in a stock fund got me thinking more clearly.

    Also, I got the following:
    2007 was 1.18%
    2006 was 22.46%
    2005 was -3.03%

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  5. #147

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Oh, OK. Thanks
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #148

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Using your spreadsheet, I get -8.49% for 2008....I'm not sure why the difference exists. I left my fund prices at the defaults that were with the calculator...maybe I need to go rethink all this.

    //confused

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  9. #149

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    I'm not sure I'd trust my results 100%. I threw it together pretty quickly and didn't double check the cell calculations. I may not have even had the correct allocation each month. If you'd like me to I'll will look at it more thoroughly.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #150

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Sure, if you don't mind. I'm new at all this, and I don't trust my numbers.

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  13. #151

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    I also get -8.49%.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #152

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,685
    Blog Entries
    13

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    End of month for December, 2009:

    G= +0.25%

    F= -1.55%

    C= +1.94%

    S= + 6.57%

    I = + 1.43%


    The LMBM method will move to a position of 100% "S" fund, effective COB on Monday.
    (note- corrected after share prices were posted tonight. It appears they stole 0.04% off the F fund's value today, as well as 0.04% off the C fund, and 0.09% off the S fund value today. It was not reflective of the market, but rather someone tinkered with the value of all three today.

    The I fund was off too due to the dollar and an unknown FV amount.

    Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)
    Last edited by James48843; 12-31-2009 at 08:02 PM. Reason: Corrected when share prices were posted

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  17. #153

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Did anyone use this method last year? How did it do for you?


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  19. #154

    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    192

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    LMBF started off poorly, and did not reach positive returns until May, but dipped back down again in June. Finally, after June the strategy kept moving up. It finished 2009 at +15.8%. This looks good compared to other years, but it really is not great considering the returns people got this year.

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  21. #155

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by peterson82 View Post
    LMBF started off poorly, and did not reach positive returns until May, but dipped back down again in June. Finally, after June the strategy kept moving up. It finished 2009 at +15.8%. This looks good compared to other years, but it really is not great considering the returns people got this year.
    15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

    I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

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  23. #156

    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Utah
    Posts
    1,991

    Default Re: Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    End of month for December, 2009:

    ....
    Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)
    I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you! ROFL!

    Lady

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