OK, so per the above discussion I decided to try this method with a 2 month lag on the IN/OUT trigger. I chose to test two methods. The first one I called "UR C&F" and it goes 100% into the C Fund while we are IN and 100% into the F Fund while we are OUT. The second one I called "UR S&F" as it does the same thing with the S & F Funds. Here are the annual results together with our 5 funds:
It does look like this system does reduce our losses during economic downturns. Unfortunately it also reduces the initial recovery. I guess you can't have one without the other. The question is do you come out ahead in the long run. We will have to see.
Year G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund UR C&F UR S&F 2000 6.42% 11.67% (9.14%) (8.17%) 2001 5.39% 8.61% (11.94%) (9.04%) (21.94%) (0.35%) (1.91%) 2002 5.00% 10.27% (22.05%) (18.14%) (15.98%) 1.70% 3.36% 2003 4.11% 4.11% 28.54% 42.92% 37.94% 8.47% 5.17% 2004 4.30% 4.30% 10.82% 18.03% 20.00% 10.82% 18.03% 2005 4.49% 2.40% 4.96% 10.45% 13.63% 4.96% 10.45% 2006 4.93% 4.40% 15.79% 15.30% 26.32% 15.79% 15.30% 2007 4.87% 7.09% 5.54% 5.49% 11.43% 8.91% 9.91% 2008 3.75% 5.45% (36.99%) (38.32%) (42.43%) 5.45% 5.45% 2009 2.97% 5.99% 26.68% 34.85% 30.04% 5.99% 5.99% 2010 2.81% 6.71% 15.06% 29.06% 7.94% 29.91% 37.15% 2011 2.45% 7.89% 2.11% (3.38%) (11.81%) (0.12%) (4.45%) 2012 1.47% 4.29% 16.07% 18.57% 18.62% 16.07% 18.57% 2013 1.89% (1.68%) 32.45% 38.35% 22.13% 32.45% 38.35% 2014 2.31% 6.73% 13.78% 7.80% (5.27%) 13.78% 7.80% 2015 2.04% 0.91% 1.46% (2.92%) (0.51%) 1.46% (2.92%)
Also notice that we have basically been pegged in the market these last 5 years so our methods produce the same results as the individual C & S Funds. 2011 actually underperformed these funds because it suffered from the whipsaw trigger in late 2010. Yep, whipsaws still hurt.
Bookmarks