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Thread: Alternate LMBF methods

  1. #241

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the returns through the 3rd Quarter of the year:

    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.19% 1.49% (4.96%)
    (8.72%) (5.62%) 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 1.49%
    Feb 0.15% 0.68% (0.12%) 0.50% (2.82%)
    0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68%
    Mar 0.15% 0.93% 6.79% 8.24% 6.59% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24%
    Apr 0.14% 0.41% 0.39% 1.73% 1.89% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73%
    May 0.15% 0.08% 1.80% 1.81% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 1.81% 0.08% 0.27%
    Jun 0.15% 1.80% 0.26% (0.13%)
    (3.33%) 0.26% (0.13%)
    (0.13%) 1.80% 0.26%
    Jul 0.13% 0.64% 3.69% 5.40% 5.07% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
    Aug 0.13% (0.11%)
    0.14% 0.80% 0.08% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% (0.11%) 0.80%
    Sep 0.13% (0.04%) 0.02% 0.90% 1.24% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% (0.04%) 0.90%
    YTD 1.32% 6.01% 7.87% 10.11% 2.80% 14.31% 13.86% 15.61% 13.72% 15.79%
    Looks like SIM has fallen from first to last among our methods, but all our methods are doing well compared to the five TSP funds. Looks loke this was the year for LMBF-1.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  2.  
  3. #242

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 10/28/2016:

    Date G FUND F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
    28-Oct-2016 0.12% (0.82%)
    (1.81%) (4.25%) (2.05%)
    Unfortunately the G Fund was the only one positive for the month making it the de facto winner in October. That means the following IFTs take place before noon Monday, 31-Oct-16.

    • LMBF-1 Changes from the I Fund to the G Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the G Fund
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the I Fund to the G Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the G Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the I Fund to the F Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  4.  
  5. #243

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    have not been watching this and will need to. This is a pretty interesting method. Anything happen all month for this in November?


  6.  
  7. #244

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Not much is happening in November since none of these methods are in the market. Most of them are in the G Fund so they are just ploding along.

    Year to Date LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    21-Nov-16 12.11% 11.67 11.27 13% 10.78%
    LMBF-1 G>F usually does well in these bail to safety moves but not this time. It was in the lead last month. Since the election it is falling like a rock with the F Fund as investments continue to rotate out of bonds.

    November G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    21-Nov-16 0.11% (2.34%) 3.61% 7.69% (2.28%)
    As it stands today the S Fund is way in the lead and could be the LMBF for December. That decision will be based on the closing value of our funds next Tuesday, Nov 29.

    All in all these methods have done well for themselves all year. That's good because they have a lot to make for from last year.
    Last edited by Cactus; 11-22-2016 at 07:57 AM. Reason: Added year to date returns for our methods
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  8.  
  9. #245

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    reward favors the bold. aka S fund holders.

  10.  
  11. #246

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 29-Nov-2016.

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    29-Nov-2016 0.15% (2.08%) 3.96% 8.22% (1.87%)
    The best fund is S so the following IFTs take place before noon today, 30-Nov-2016:

    •LMBF-1 Changes from the G Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the G Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the G Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the G Fund to the S Fund
    •LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    Last edited by Cactus; 11-30-2016 at 07:35 AM. Reason: Corrected date
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  12.  
  13. #247

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the returns through November:

    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.19% 1.49% (4.96%) (8.72%) (5.62%) 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 1.49%
    Feb 0.15% 0.68% (0.12%) 0.50% (2.82%) 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68%
    Mar 0.15% 0.93% 6.79% 8.24% 6.59% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24%
    Apr 0.14% 0.41% 0.39% 1.73% 1.89% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73%
    May 0.15% 0.08% 1.80% 1.81% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 1.81% 0.08% 0.27%
    Jun 0.15% 1.80% 0.26% (0.13%) (3.33%) 0.26% (0.13%) (0.13%) 1.80% 0.26%
    Jul 0.13% 0.64% 3.69% 5.40% 5.07% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
    Aug 0.13% (0.11%) 0.14% 0.80% 0.08% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% (0.11%) 0.80%
    Sep 0.13% (0.04%) 0.02% 0.90% 1.24% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% (0.04%) 0.90%
    JOct 0.14% (0.74%) (1.82%) (3.86%) (2.03%) (2.03%) (2.03%) (3.86%) (0.74%) (2.03%)
    Nov 0.16% (2.35%) 3.71% 7.95% (1.99%) 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% (2.35%)
    YTD 1.62% 2.75% 9.84% 14.28% (1.29%) 12.16% 11.72% 11.32% 13.05% 10.76%


    Looks like equities bounced back while we were in safety mode. Ouch, that happens sometimes with these methods. You got to learn to accept it if you want to follow these systems.

    G>F really got burned in the F Fund this time round putting it in last place amoung our methods. It usually works out for the better but not this time round.

    SIM has done well for itself this year and leads all our methods. All our methods have done well this year and are beating all the TSP Funds except for the S Fund.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  14.  
  15. #248

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the monthly returns as of Dec 29, 2016:

    Date G FUND F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
    29-Dec-2016 0.19% (0.09%) 2.45% 2.18% 2.91%

    The best fund is I so the following IFTs take place by noon eastern tomorrow, Dec 30, 2016.

    • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Remains in the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the I Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  16.  
  17. #249

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    OK, 2016 is behind us, so here are the returns for the last year:
    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.19% 1.49% (4.96%)
    (8.72%) (5.62%) 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 1.49%
    Feb 0.15% 0.68% (0.12%) 0.50% (2.82%) 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68% 0.68%
    Mar 0.15% 0.93% 6.79% 8.24% 6.59% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24% 8.24%
    Apr 0.14% 0.41% 0.39% 1.73% 1.89% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73% 1.73%
    May 0.15% 0.08% 1.80% 1.81% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 1.81% 0.08% 0.27%
    Jun 0.15% 1.80% 0.26% (0.13%)
    (3.33%) 0.26% (0.13%)
    (0.13%) 1.80% 0.26%
    Jul 0.13% 0.64% 3.69% 5.40% 5.07% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64% 0.64%
    Aug 0.13% (0.11%) 0.14% 0.80% 0.08% 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% (0.11%)
    0.80%
    Sep 0.13% (0.04%) 0.02% 0.90% 1.24% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% (0.04%)
    0.90%
    Oct 0.14% (0.74%)
    (1.82%) (3.86%) (2.03%) (2.03%) (2.03%) (3.86%) (0.74%) (2.03%)
    Nov 0.16% (2.35%)
    3.71% 7.95% (1.99%) 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% (2.35%)
    Dec 0.20% 0.16% 1.98% 1.81% 3.44% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81% 1.81%
    YTD 1.82% 2.91% 12.01% 16.35% 2.10% 14.19% 13.74% 13.34% 15.10% 12.77%
    It looks like our methods did quite well last year. They all beat the C Fund and came in second to the S Fund which was last years winner.

    As for comparison among themselves, LMBF-1 SIM was the clear winner. LMBF-1 G>F came in last due to being in the F Fund in November which was clearly not the place to be. Betting against the G Fund didn't pay off for it that month. Speaking about betting against LMBF-1, the LMBF-1 C>S & LMBF-1 CI>S methods also did worse betting against LMBF-1 this year. On average they do better but not this year.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  18.  
  19. #250

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Ok, for you people who like numbers, here are the last 3, 5, & 10 year stats for our returns:

    3 Year (2014 - 16) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 2.06% 3.52% 9.08% 7.08% (1.23%)
    (0.38%) 1.45% 1.92% 3.53% (0.05%)
    Standard Deviation 0.20% 2.41% 5.44% 7.88% 3.05% 11.12% 10.24% 9.25% 8.87% 10.07%
    Annualized Return 2.06% 3.49% 8.94% 6.78% (1.27%)
    (0.99%) 0.93% 1.49% 3.16% (0.55%)
    Total Return 6.30% 10.84% 29.31% 21.76% (3.77%)
    (2.94%) 2.80% 4.55% 9.77% (1.64%)

    5 Year (2012 - 16) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 1.91% 2.64% 15.15% 15.63% 7.41% 6.95% 9.32% 10.60% 8.66% 7.31%
    Standard Deviation 0.28% 2.85% 9.99% 13.64% 10.90% 12.94% 13.39% 12.84% 9.40% 12.37%
    Annualized Return 1.91% 2.60% 14.73% 14.84% 6.87% 6.14% 8.48% 9.83% 8.24% 6.58%
    Total Return 9.90% 13.71% 98.79% 99.74% 39.41% 34.68% 50.26% 59.79% 48.56% 37.49%

    10 Year (07 - 16) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 2.64% 4.63% 8.82% 10.58% 3.22% 7.92% 10.28% 11.85% 10.26% 8.51%
    Standard Deviation 0.97% 2.90% 17.92% 21.45% 19.50% 11.69% 12.91% 14.01% 9.65% 11.35%
    Annualized Return 2.63% 4.59% 7.00% 8.13% 1.02% 7.25% 9.49% 10.97% 9.84% 7.89%
    Total Return 29.68% 56.69% 96.75% 118.54% 10.70% 101.35% 147.71% 183.27% 155.59% 113.61%

    Well, not much to say here. They look a lot like last years comparison. Our methods only win in the 10 Year average.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  20.  
  21. #251

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    We will have to wait for the final numbers tonight, but it does look like the I Fund is the winner for January.

    That being the case all our methods stay where they are at for February. There are no IFTs this month. That's good. That means we got this one right.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  22.  
  23. #252

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    The Woodlands, TX
    Posts
    292

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Heya's... been a long while since I've been here. Hope everyone is well. So many things going on in life I feel like I have been in another world. Retirement has been good. My account has been sitting in the S Fund.. looking back it had been ugly for a while but has bounced back nicely. Even though I have been taking a monthly payment since I retired in 2013, my account is about where it was when I left federal service. I can wonder where it could have been if I had been paying attention but, that's water under the bridge. Still in nice shape.
    Cheers!


  24.  
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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Alternate LMBF methods
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
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Alternate LMBF methods
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