Likes Likes:  0
Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: What are the different allocation strategies being followed?

  1. #1

    Default What are the different allocation strategies being followed?

    I would like to know more about the different allocation strategies being followed. Perhaps they have been hashed out before and it will bore oldtimers, but new guys are just being exposed to the ideas and are eager to know group opinions on what to ignore and what may warrant a second, closer look.

    My first problem reading the posts of others on this forum was that I can not replicate their returns on my spreadsheet. If everyone is not figuring the hypothetical returns based on the same data points, how can you compare strategies? I decided to go off monthly returns.

    I copied the yearly and monthly returns from the TSP website to a spreadsheet (A-K). Then I figured out yearly cumulative return based on monthly returns (M-W). There are small differences for the cumulative returns compared to TSP Annual Returns. This was expected due to small rounding errors and only going to hundredths of a percent. I am ok with my data providing me information within %.02 of the TSP site. Does anyone think this is going to give me bad data?

    The first strategy tested was buy and hold (Y-AI). I broke returns down since inception (my data set goes back to 1988), 10 year, 5 year, and 1 year.

    The second strategy tested was Seasonal. I broke returns down since inception, 10 year, 5 year, and 1 year. This seems to be the winner so far.

    The third strategy tested was LMBF. I broke returns down since inception, 10 year, 5 year, and 1 year. This seems to be a popular theory to watch, but it did not seem to beat Seasonal (if I did the testing correctly).

    The fourth strategy tested was a hypothetical perfect investment. I broke returns down since inception, 10 year, 5 year, and 1 year. The returns were great. For my $1000.00 investement starting at the end of 1987, by the end of 2011 there would have been over $5,000,000.00 in my TSP account.

    I have room on the spreadsheet to test more strategy. Perhaps a set buy and hold allocation option? Any ideas? I saw a mention of a 8.6 year global business cycle. Has anyone created an allocation based on the business cycle?

    I will attempt to attach part of the spreadsheet. Any suggestions on how to improve what I am doing and retire earlier and easier will be appreciated.

    TSP Talk.xls


  2.  
  3. #2

    Default Re: What are the different allocation strategies being followed?

    Quote Originally Posted by maxdouttsp View Post
    I have room on the spreadsheet to test more strategy. Perhaps a set buy and hold allocation option? Any ideas? I saw a mention of a 8.6 year global business cycle. Has anyone created an allocation based on the business cycle?

    TSP Talk.xls
    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-ter...-strategy.html

    TSP Talk AutoTracker (Biz Cycle return)
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Re: What are the different allocation strategies being followed?

    Sentiment Survey is one that's pretty interesting, sort of like a contrarian indicator. When the crowd gets too bullish, it moves to a sell

  6.  

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
What are the different allocation strategies being followed?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
What are the different allocation strategies being followed?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
What are the different allocation strategies being followed?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
What are the different allocation strategies being followed?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes