Thread: DOW 8400 in 2006??

I have been teaching those guys for years.......

Not really, but I have been seeing this position for about a year now......I wonder when it will finally hit the skids......alot of things have pointed to soon....I have mentioned that Feb is a good start....of course i was speculating it could start in Mid Jan , but I think that has been proven wrong......even though we did get a hit.....

I would keep looking out for it due mainly to two main industries that drive economies are on the brink due to the various factors........housing and Autos and other transportation....there is a lot to lose when we lose them....

I'm not really sure what Birch is talking about.... but the I fund could be going good for a while.....things seem to be changing overseas some....and overseas is where people need to progress the most.....look for the S&P companies invested in overseas investments (manufacturing and sales) to do well.....also buy foreign currency.....

Here's my 2 cents. That article isn't worth the price that the g fund is going to pay.

Here's somebody who has some substance and guts.

http://www.hsdent.com/download/forecast10-05.pdf

Great article !! I have some of his books. I note where he recommends a position in the Pacific Rim ex Japan. What does he not like about Japan?

Dell

Originally Posted by Pilgrim

check out:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...7940/index.htm

How good does anyone think such analysis is? As good as reading tea leaves? Numerology? Something to take seriously????

Acampora says his long-term outlook is still bullish. In fact, his advice to investors is to get ready for a major buying opportunity. "If we are correct, this selloff will set the stage for a major market bottom--a classic four-year low," he says. "Then, I think, the market has a gangbuster move going into the latter part of 2006, all of 2007, and probably 2008."

Sounds like he's been reading the TSP Talk comments. He's in big trouble.

Hi Dell,

Glad there's another Dent fan around here.

HS Dent, excludes Japan because their spending wave is the opposite of ours, Europe and the Pacific rim. When Japan is up we're down and when we're up their down. That's one of the reasons why playing the I fund is hard, because it includes Japan. The spending wave is the graph of people born each year and then projected into the future 47-49 years. Refer to the "Key Concepts" on www.hsdent.com

Thanks for the info and the link.

Originally Posted by Pilgrim

check out:

How good does anyone think such analysis is? As good as reading tea leaves? Numerology? Something to take seriously????

We are going to see many articles on this subject this year. Makes for good water cooler talk. However, some investors will stay out of the market due to articles like this. Not me! The Trend is our friend! If we do get this correction it will be a great buying Op for longer term investing and could be the start of another Bull Run!!!! In the years 2000 to 2002 we had some corrections Brother.

Birchtree can tell ya. Trillions in share prices GONE. Talk about roller coaster rides!!! YA BABY, those were wild years!!!!!


http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2006/0124.html

Robo,

There is the possibility that folks will be waiting for a 4 year cycle low that never arrives. My silly thinking is that it bottomed last October along with a nine month cycle. I'm still searching for the secular bull - the 4 year came a year early. So me thinks - you know I'm a hold and suffer so it really doesn't matter that much. Even if we get one it won't be deep or painful. Got any of those pretty graphs to display? You realize we just had 4 consecutive days of better than 2 to 1 ratios - shows bull character. Take care.

Dennis - the humble bull

I'm no market analyst.....

I’m an engineer by training, and very logical by nature. I even subscribe to Skeptic Magazine, so I’m somewhat obsessed by logical thought.

As such, I agree that there are fundamental numbers and influences that make the market predictable to a degree. Someone who can churn those numbers and make no-nonsense decisions based on them has an advantage in picking the trend of the market. They won’t always be right, but that’s just proof that the market is more complex than a mechanical system. Psychology, economic conditions, and world events will often throw off even the best calculation.

But I cannot see the sense in some of the voodoo analysis I read. Here I’m talking specifically about the “4 year cycle”, and what is seemingly, (if you read the “analysis” closely), a required 10-20% drop.

Does anyone really believe the stock market is a mechanical system that can be assumed to have an inherent period? Has anyone stopped to look at the past 10-20% drops, and found that they were actually caused by an identifiable event, or series of events, or economic conditions? I'm willing to bet they were. If so, does anyone really believe those EVENTS or conditions are tied together by a 4 year cycle of cosmic significance?

Don’t get me wrong….there certainly could be a huge drop in our near future, and there are plenty of potential causes that can easily be identified. (Oil, Iran, Middle East politics, Terrorism, South America, etc., etc., etc.). Guessing what will happen, and when it will happen, is beyond our ability to calculate. So, I would propose that those who claim we are “overdue” for a drop, or think they can predict the range of DATES for the drop, are just performing voodoo. Nothing more.

Listen to them at your own risk.

There….glad I got that off my chest.....I feel better now.

Ticked,

Will you consider the lead position on the potential October 06 bottom? If you'll ride the storm perhaps you will garner companionship and we can all enjoy the inherent pain that will be delivered together. This is all part of what makes a bull market.

Dennis

I take no position at all! We may dump 30% tomorrow, or we may double our money next week for all I know!

But I am pretty sure that neither space aliens nor Elvis will be the cause of either one.

(I'm a "buy and hold...but maybe I can miss a dip" kinda guy.)