DOW 8400 in 2006??

**robo** · 01-28-2006, 12:04 AM

Birchtree,

I should be paying you for advice.. I get daily reports from FOUR, Yes, FOUR TA's on if I should be Long, or Cash in the market! ALL FOUR WERE SHORRRRT THE MARKET THIS WEEK. I exited some long postions based on ALL FOUR SHORTING the market... Should have known better..

Missed out on some nice gains, but my Emerging markets and Pacific funds in Vanguard helped out. I bought the S&P 500 dip, but exited the trade with only a few points gained after TA's were shouting PULLBACK and HEADFAKE!!! Back to cash and waiting for a pullback, or should I say Hoping...

I'm going to use a percentage of my equity postion in my total portfolio and sign up for the Sharks service and weekly recommendations. I'll compare his returns against some of the other TA's I use.

He has already made me money. I stayed in some small cap trades longer based on his comments. The price he is charging is less than some of the other TA's I'm using and they are having a bad year. I do have my Bob Brinker accounts in American Century and Vanguard and like you don't move them much. Keep us straight BIG BULL... Lots of little Bulls out here...

GO GO Birchtree!!!

Have a good weekend my friend!!!

**Birchtree** · 02-04-2006, 10:03 PM

Robo,

I didn't realize the S&P 500 gain was so much - 1398%. I'm only looking for 34% this year on the S&P.

Secular bull megatrend - I like the sound of it - it's so unappreciated.

I wonder how high and with confirmed volume do we go before he recognizes in print we are in a back to back secular bull market trend that could evolve into another megatrend of 15 - 16 years. Thanks for the heads up.

Dennis - permabull #2

**saturneptune** · 02-05-2006, 01:06 AM

Retirement is 2 or so years away. I am in L2010 100%. It is very difficult for me to stay in the G fund. With all the negative comments about the future of the C, S and I fund, I am beginning to wonder if I am doing the right thing.
Any thoughts appreciated.

**Birchtree** · 02-05-2006, 02:15 AM

Saturneptune,

Are you another cdiFrances with a power account? If so you will need to develope a strategy to further accumulate wealth both during the next two years and also durung retirement. It's never to late to make big bucks if you have big bucks to make it with. It's so much easier to be negative than to maintain a bullish perspective - but I take risks and I continue to earn my stripes. When the preponderance of evidence suggests that you should join friends in the G fund - do the exact opposite and buy a stock fund. It probably really doesn't matter at this point in time - but I prefer the C fund for a myriad of reasons.

Dennis

**saturneptune** · 02-05-2006, 02:23 AM

Dennis,
Thanks for your reply. Im not sure what a cdi francis is, but I have around 132 in TSP. I am leaving the postal service in two years, but plan on working other places. I will probably not take the TSP out in two years. Thanks for your insight.

**Pilgrim** · 03-07-2006, 01:51 PM

Will the Fed overshoot??

I grew up in a gas station that my family owned. A mechanic was once showing me how to torque the headbolts on a ford flathead. He related that when he was a boy on the farm, hay was still baled by hand. An old farm hand showed him how and told him, "When you get the wire to the point that you're sure that just one more twist will be perfect, STOP RIGHT THERE! If you do that, you will never break a piece of baling wire."

Sounds like good advice for the Fed.

**Pilgrim** · 05-02-2006, 03:40 PM

HJow much could we lose in a single day??

There are only the "circuit breakers".

"In essence they maintain a 10, 20 and 30% standard. - 10% drop: 1 hour halt, no affect after 2:30pm. - 20% drop: 2 hour halt before 1pm, 1 hour halt before 2pm, permanent halt for the day after 2pm. - 30% drop: halts trading for the remainder of the day."

**The_Technician** · 05-30-2006, 05:06 PM

I'm getting technical data that says we have some negative events immediate upon us and thru summer....(first couple of weeks in June doesn't look good) .....I believe I mentioned this last month or so that the summer didn't look great.....and several others on the board have also made that determination....

I know the markets look low at the moment for the last couple of weeks declines, but this really begs to be cautious....it is highly risky to be in the market in my opinion.....

**Birchtree** · 05-30-2006, 05:39 PM

My good man, it's a risky business. The more the risk the greater the opportunity. That's the difference - bearing the pain needlessly for future gain. Some do, some won't, some are lazy like me and do just fine.

**Pilgrim** · 05-31-2006, 01:57 PM

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET May 31, 2006

"Much to my surprise, I found that the stock market's probabilities of rising between June 1 and Aug. 31 actually go up when May is a down month. Consider first those years in which May produced as big or bigger loss as it has so far this year. Since the mid 1890s, when the DJIA was created, a total of 26 years qualify. The DJIA's average summer gain during those 26 years was 6.3%.

Contrast that with the summer gains during years in which the DJIA in May did better than it has in 2006. The average three-month gain during those summers was 2.5%.

This difference turns out to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use."

**nnuut** · 05-31-2006, 10:37 PM

Very, very intresting Pilgrim! The Hell I won't (john Wayne)!

**Birchtree** · 05-31-2006, 11:24 PM

Pilgrim,

Stay on the hunt for those nuggets - just what we (some anyway) need to read - I'm sick and tired of the dollar trashers and midnight snackers. Give me some positive bull manure to make my portfolio grow. Thanks again.

Dennis