Thread: How about this

How long is the haul... ? You must be willing to hold past any downturns long enough to break even and realize your expected gains. If this is just market correction, then maybe a few weeks or several months. If this is more, most of us had to hold for years... If the market goes up from here, you get thegenius award .

The purpose here at this site is to evaluate the market often, and adjust allocations as indicated by sentiment or system. Buy and hold not spoken here, at least not fluently...



Peace

mattdog240 wrote:

I currently have my TSP @ this [35 C]...[40...S]...[25...I]... For a long term progress what do you people think. I was following the chat about I fund and decided to add moremaking it my current %. So for the long haul what do you guys think?:?

I guess it depends on how you defind the "long haul." Do youmean that you will keep it at that allocation forthe rest of the year?

If so,I would say that, as ofthis point, you're probably over-allocated in equities. If January ends the monthdown, we will likely have a rotten year (down or flat)..since that has been the general trend in the past. In that case, its best to put more in G and some in I as a dollar play..since the dollar, at this point, still is in a long term bear market.

At the bare minimum, cut the S allocation by 1/4 anyway. Even if the market has a good year, I highly doubt the S will outperform the C this year. C&I (as long as the dollar does not rebound) > S.

If we don't see a stronger move upward in the next two weeks, we could be looking at G > C, S, and I (if our markets go in the tank, the foreign ones will likely follow, and persistant dollar weakness will not be enough to keep the I above water, IMHO). :shock:

Thanks guys and girls! When I talk long haul I was talking I am young and if I were to leave my %'s like that is it good. I know realize from reading around it is best to watch and jump on when things get good.:^

Chaplain wrote:

Buy and hold not spoken here, at least not fluently...

hahahaha....good one!


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Aside from rare exceptions, small caps (S)always outperform large caps (C), therefore a heavier allocation to S is almost guaranteed to provide a better yield during the long haul and the longer the period, the greater the chance of thathappening.

I will have to be the contrarian here and say that I do not think C will outperform S this year, and definitely not anytime soon. Interest-schminterest hikes, money is still cheap and will be for a while.

So mattdog, what is your time-horizon (how many years until you will withdraw from your TSP) and what kind of investment style are you looking to be (buy-and-hold/fire-and-forget, adjust once-in-a-while, or full-out market-timer)?

I just got into the TSP program this past july. I am 25 yrs old so in the long run. I am more of the buy and hold/fix once and awhile. That might change. I am learning as time goes on.... But for now fix here and there...:^