Thread: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

Patiently waiting for June 2011 (the end of this bear market) to move into stocks. Bonds are doing well again (positive return ytd).

Just waiting....... But TSP is safe (Baring a worldwide financial collapse).

Oh so bored..... time to look at ETF trading in my personnal account. I've got to put some of this market knowledge to work while I wait for the Bear to get sleepy again. See you at ETFTALK.

Here is the 'latest' from Armstrong. He wrote it in prison.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour...nArmstrong.pdf

I am a little perplexed with the March 2008 - March 2009 prediction of an upswing in stocks as this did not happen, however, I also recognize that the excessive government intervention and unbelievable bank leveraging may just have caused an anomalous element to be present which does not follow his theory. I am still reading his paper to determine if this biz-cycle theory may still be valid. Page 22-27 are very interesting (gets to the point finally - "Europe knows all about cancelling currencies").

Originally Posted by malyla

Here is the 'latest' from Armstrong. He wrote it in prison.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour...nArmstrong.pdf

I am still reading his paper to determine if this biz-cycle theory may still be valid.

This was a fantastic read and there is no doubt The Biz-Cycle Theory is well validated by the most brilliant and financially gifted minded individuals to live.

This is the main reason why High Risk should dominate from the bottom to the top and Safety should dominate from top to bottom.

Thanks so much for sharing this.

This article is also pertinent: http://safehaven.com/article-13145.htm

Originally Posted by Birchtree

This article is also pertinent: http://safehaven.com/article-13145.htm

Thus, as the shadow banking system continues to collapse, velocity should move well below its mean, greatly impairing the efficacy of monetary policy. This means that M2 growth will not necessarily be transferred into higher GDP. For example, in Q4 of 2008 annualized GDP fell 5.8% while M2 expanded by 15.7%. The same pattern appears likely in Q1 of this year.


I see this quote as the most fundamental KEY to understanding the overall picture - but a lot of info to digest. Looking at the nuts and bolts undoubted forces us to recognize many complicated pieces.

Still the cylinical waves - dominate everything

Originally Posted by Birchtree

This article is also pertinent: http://safehaven.com/article-13145.htm

Thanks Birchtree.
"In the U.S. from 1874-94 and 1928-41, Treasury bonds returned 0.9% and 7% per annum, respectively, more than common stocks. In Japan's recession from 1988-2008, Treasury bond returns exceeded those on common stocks by an even greater 8.4%. Thus, historically, risk taking has not been rewarded in deflation. The premier investment asset has been the long government bond" from http://safehaven.com/article-13145.htm

The back testing I did following the method of going into safety (F fund) during recessions (recessions are economic downturns as defined by Armstrong's 8.6 Business Cycle) is surported by this article on deflationary pressures in economic downturns. The link of deflationary GDP to the National debt was eye-opening. Thanks again.

Originally Posted by malyla

Here is the 'latest' from Armstrong. He wrote it in prison.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour...nArmstrong.pdf

Page 22-27 are very interesting (gets to the point finally - "Europe knows all about cancelling currencies").

Armstrong did mention this current uptrend with an ending date of April 16, 2009. That makes this a very interesting week - will we get above the high of last week(4/17/09)?
According to Armstrong, there should be another uptrend at the end of 2009 and late summer 2010 before the bottom in June 2011 and the resumption of a bull market (page 26). I will follow this with interest.

Originally Posted by Steadygain

This is the main reason why High Risk should dominate from the bottom to the top and Safety should dominate from top to bottom.

Thanks so much for sharing this.

Interesting way to put tsp investing. Thanks and you are welcome

Now here is the latest from Martin Armstrong http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/04/ma...man-sachs.html

Not about the business cycle but his take on the Goldman-Sachs conspiracy(dated April 9, 2009)

FWIW

A pdf can be found here http://www.scribd.com/doc/14227076/B...he-Curtain4909

with a followup article(pdf) here http://www.scribd.com/doc/14268132/F...litical-Change

You will need to signin to download the pdf but you can read it without signing in.

Armstrong certainly has a lot to say.....

There is a MoneyWeek online article this week about Martin Armstrong here
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/200...k-article.html

You can also get the pdf articles from this blogspot without signing in.

The SEC has agreed to look at Armstrong's case. Lets hope he doesn't have any accidents before he gets his review.

Originally Posted by malyla

There is a MoneyWeek online article this week about Martin Armstrong here
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/200...k-article.html

You can also get the pdf articles from this blogspot without signing in.

The SEC has agreed to look at Armstrong's case. Lets hope he doesn't have any accidents before he gets his review.

Malyla,
I'm just closing up - so will come back tomorrow to catch up.

There are 3 (only 3) that stood out to me as TRUE GENIUSES

1. Paul Krugman - winner of 2008 Noble Prize in Economics

2. Adam Hamilton - only discovered him within the week (from Lady)
He is the one that convinced me we hit the BOTTOM

3. Martin Armstrong - today from you. I saved his PDF earlier and will come back to this stuff tomorrow.

It is very rare someone screams out to me as being a Genius, but when they do I lose myself and thoroughly enjoy it.

Thank you !!! and have a wonderful night.

Steady