Thread: Mutual Funds

I have American Century Equity Growth, Vista, and Ultra. USAA Aggressive Growth, and USAA International.

The international fund is a stop-gap until Emerging Markets drop some more, then those funds will go there. I will use TSP international for developed countries since the expense ratio is lower.

I'm only temporarily in mid/large growth as you see above because i think these will be the best performers relative to risk over the next year, maybe two. They are all solid funds, IMHO. (Equity Growth is actually large value, sorry, but i dont have much $$ in that one - its an old rollover traditional IRA from a job i had 2 years)

I hope you aren't expecting me to look up all your ticker symbols. :X

I have American Century Equity Growth (BEQGX), Vista (TWCVX), and Ultra (TWCUX). USAA Aggressive Growth (USAUX), and USAA International (USIFX).

BEQGX - Not much different than an S&P500 index fund.

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Growth of 10K :: Red = fund, green = S&P500, orange = category average.



TWCVX - I like this one; it is on my buy list. Fogle manages it. I like a lot of its holdings. Top of its class for 1-year return. It's a "stable volatilie". I will definitely buy it instead of REYFX.

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[align=left]TWCUX - Ultra? Ultra Average[/align]
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[align=left]USAUX - It sounded good by what you told me in the chat, but I just do not see this producing. Marsico took over two years ago, so here is a 1-year chart. Aggressive? It shadows the S&P500, only at a higher expense ratio. From Janus to USAA? Something went wrong there.[/align]
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[align=left]USIFX - This one is pretty good. It performs better than average without falling below average. I do not have a broad international fund for comparison.[/align]
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[align=left]It better-than-shadows the MSCI EAFE index. meh. I would go with USIFX for lack of a better replacement. I would like to find a more aggressive international fund.[/align]
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[align=left]I would suggest that you would do much better bytradingyour BEQGX, TWCUX, and USAUX for more TWCVX.[/align]

BEQGX - Not much different than an S&P500 index fund.

That almost sounds deragatory. The goal of the fund is to enhance S&P500 index returns, which at times it does. That it mirrors the S&P500 should be of little surprise, since it is almost a large-cap blend fund. I prefer active management despite the existing arguments for indexing.

TWCUX - Ultra? Ultra Average

Like 3 month returns you say? Its currently 8%ile on 3 months, and 30%ile on one year (meaning only that percent beat ulta). For 3 years, its 13%ile. (Source: third-partyMSNMoney website)



Ultra Average? Hardly.

USAUX - It sounded good by what you told me in the chat, but I just do not see this producing. Marsico took over two years ago, so here is a 1-year chart. Aggressive? It shadows the S&P500, only at a higher expense ratio. From Janus to USAA? Something went wrong there.

Marcisco probably has a better historical fund track record than any fund you own. Hindsight is no predictor of future returns, but if it is, it will produce. Yes, i see he's slacking with only 4 stars now with Marcisco Focus (what USAA AG now mirrors). I've always owned USAA, even prior to Janus. Leaving Janus was a smart move, unless you're into being cheated.

USIFX - This one is pretty good. It performs better than average without falling below average. I do not have a broad international fund for comparison.



It better-than-shadows the MSCI EAFE index. meh. I would go with USIFX for lack of a better replacement. I would like to find a more aggressive international fund.

As i said, those monies will go eventually to an emerging market fund for two reasons: 1. The I fund covers developed countries investing adequately at a lower expense. 2. Valuations in emerging markets have me hesitating for the moment - they are near a high and on the way down.

I would suggest that you would do much better bytradingyour BEQGX, TWCUX, and USAUX for more TWCVX.

American Century is top tier stock funds among the no-load world. Marciso is one of the best there is. Ihope your quest for that top 10-20% doesnt leave you below 50%ile someday.

azanon wrote:

BEQGX - Not much different than an S&P500 index fund.

That almost sounds deragatory.

hehe, Good, I've communicated my sentiment with precision. :dude: The chart shows BEQGX underperforming the index more often than outperforming it. The differences are so small, that after 1, 3, and 10 years, the return is the same. I have to wonder, does this "active manager" even show up to work?

azanon wrote:

TWCUX - Ultra? Ultra Average

Like 3 month returns you say? Its currently 8%ile on 3 months, and 30%ile on one year (meaning only that percent beat ulta). For 3 years, its 13%ile. (Source: third-partyMSNMoney website)


Ultra Average? Hardly.

I'll give you that, but 3-month returns would be indicative of the market-timer, wouldn't it? That wasn't your strategy. I did make the mistake of comparing it to TWCVX, which is in a different category (so many charts, ack!).

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It does cushion the drops better, but you sacrifice gains in order to do that. Compare to REYFX, my large growth fund:

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[align=left]Three-month, REYFX kinda blows, and had I timed it, I would have sold at some point.Now look at one-year:[/align]
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[align=left]REYFX lost more, but it gained a lot more. Even dollar-cost averaging REYFX will have you buying on some lovely dips. If you DCA'd in October, December, March, and May, you would still be ahead. Also, the dips are far more obvious, which makes it easier to know when to buy. Volatility = A friend of the timer and DCA buy-and-holder alike, no? (Bear in mind, I do not mean averaging down, a very taboo practice in any school of thought.)[/align]
[align=left]azanon wrote:

Marcisco probably has a better historical fund track record than any fund you own. Hindsight is no predictor of future returns, but if it is, it will produce.

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[align=left]What happened to the "has-been" logic?[/align]
[align=left]His recent performance has been average and is not indicative of an out-performer. What is versus what was.[/align]
[align=left]azanon wrote:

I would suggest that you would do much better bytradingyour BEQGX, TWCUX, and USAUX for more TWCVX.

American Century is top tier stock funds among the no-load world. Marciso is one of the best there is. Ihope your quest for that top 10-20% doesnt leave you below 50%ile someday.

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[align=left]Oh! There's that "has-been" logic! What is the difference between seeking the top funds verses the top fund managers? Largely, the latter banks on reputation, the former banks on real numbers. Usually, they are synonymous, but I think this is one instance where that is not the case. Additionally, I anticipate that the current top 10% will not remain there and therefore continually seek the top tier performers as an ongoing process rather than hoping (an emotion) that my fund manager will remain king of the hill. My loyalty is to the numbers, not brands. Does that make sense?[/align]

What happened to the "has-been" logic?

When did I post anything to that effect?.......... Oh you mean our icq discussion Sunday. Surely you recall my clarification of what I meant by "has-been"; that I meant former fund managers that are now retired, such as Peter Lynch. In contrast, Marcisco continues to serve as a fund manager to this day and, though it isnt the same exact fund, they have similar objectives. Regardless,he is definitely no"has-been". He was second to none with Janus Twenty from 87-97, and has a 4 star rating where he left off with Marcisco Focus to this day. The only reason USAA AG isnt 4 star now is because he hasnt been there long enough to erase all the poor performance of their former fund manager.

I'm just sorry to hear you're going to miss out on that opportunity. Not just anyone can buy USAA funds. In 3-5 years, we'll see who was the wiser. In fact, lets have a contest... tell me a large cap growth you own, and we'll see who beats who. Must be large growth.

Re, your comments on Ultra, i'm satisfied enough that you (indirectly) admitted that you changed your analysis towards Ultra because your normal way ofrating the fund would have put it in favorable light. Since I believe your intent was ultimately to critize me, and not my fund, your switch of convinence was both understandable and predictable. Nevertheless, you talked me into switching my funds I had there to TC Vista for the time being.

Azanon

azanon wrote:

...Since I believe your intent was ultimately to critize me, and not my fund, your switch of convinence was both understandable and predictable.

hehehe, You're projecting! I may critisize your thinking (and I would expect the same courtesy in return), but not you personally. I would interpret an ad hominem argument as a forfeiture of the discussion, so I would never do that.

azanon wrote:

Nevertheless, you talked me into switching my funds I had there to TC Vista for the time being.

Yaaay! I think you will profit more, for it is a more efficient use of your money.I'd like to see you in your Rex/Evo as soon as feasably possible.

azanon wrote:

I'm just sorry to hear you're going to miss out on that opportunity. Not just anyone can buy USAA funds. In 3-5 years, we'll see who was the wiser. In fact, lets have a contest... tell me a large cap growth you own, and we'll see who beats who. Must be large growth.

I already did: REYFX. Funny thing, I was feeling pretty dissatisfied with my REYFX andI was going to switchit to TWCVX until I compared them. (Yes, TWCVX is mid-growth, but it perfoms much better than TWCUX.) This discussion putme back in theproper perspective, reminding me that I was in for bumps and dips and that overall, I am still ahead.

I already did: REYFX.

Nah, that's a small-cap growth fund. If it beats USAUX, it will be primarily cause small-caps>large caps; the converse being true as well. The only meaningful comparison would be against another large-cap growth. That being said, i think you'll get owned over the next year or 2 cause small caps had their fun the past few years.

I have USAUX first and foremost because I wanted a large-cap growth offering. I consider the actual fund a far secondary to simply having the proper type of fund. Past performance doesnt equal future returns, and one's overall portfolio return rate is 90%+ determined by being in the right type of investment(s)/market capitalization/sectors, and a very small percentage maybe being allocated to which fund within a given sector you picked.

What the...? It is categorised as "Large Growth" but only has <12% large cap stocks in it. hmmmm...that explains its performance lately. I shall be looking for a replacement for it, for I wanted predominately large-cap stocks. Perhaps I will buy individual stocks instead. Good call.

USAUX has underperformed the S&P500 for the past ten years, annualised. Since '97, it has had only two good years relative to its peers, otherwise, it is a loser. It did get a new portfolio in April, but I would not be hopeful, given USAA's track record.

Perhaps we could find a better alternative?

My choices, in order:

1. TEQAX
2. JAVLX
3. PRMAX
4. UMLGX

USAUX has underperformed the S&P500 for the past ten years, annualised. Since '97, it has had only two good years relative to its peers, otherwise, it is a loser. It did get a new portfolio in April, but I would not be hopeful, given USAA's track record.

Ack! we're going in circles. USAA AG's performance pre 02 is so irrelevant, i cackle at the thought. Not only has the manager changed, but quite literally the fund mechanisms changed with it. USAA AG actually used to be predominately a small cap fund, and even leveraged in some cases, before Marcisco. Besides the fund you liked (REYFX) only had one good year (03') and the rest were (even being kind) horrid.

Have you humored me yet and thrown up Janus Twenty from 87-97' (marcisco's fund for a decade)? You know, if you simply attached Marcisco Focus onto the end of that, he'd still have one of the greatest performing funds since 87'. Since (i'm assuming) he controls "Marcisco Funds" and USAA AG is a (near) mirror image of Focus, I think its a pretty decent move. You seemed concerned his hands may be tied, but only if he tied them himself given the fund company is his last name.

"Skill" is probably not as important for large-cap funds as small-caps anyway. Its not that difficult to buy Microsoft, Intel, Dell, Cisco, etc.