Stocks

**tsptalk** · 01-20-2005, 02:39 PM

Does anyone else feel that Ebay's sell off is a bit exaggerated? Down $17 (to$86)a share because they missed estimates by a penny (.33 vs .34)? Ebay is a great company. Google ($192) is being dragged down some with it and they report earnings any day now.

I think I will pick up some ebay.

Disclosure: I aleady ownsome Google, and have some ebay options.

01-20-2005, 02:57 PM

No I don't. EBay was priced not to fail..and it did, in fact,fail to meet expectations. Remember thateven with the current hit, it's still running a pe of 75. Combine the priciness of EBaywith the current bear environment and you have an action that seems very much in line.IF EBay returns to its previous stellar record, then I agree that its a good buy today. However, considering that this may not be a stellar year for stocks in general, it could take a longer periodfor the stock price to turn around.

I think Google is also way overpricedin the current environment...

**tsptalk** · 01-20-2005, 03:06 PM

.33 was ebay's forecast for themselves..34 was analysts lofty forecasts. It was definitely priced with a high multiple but growth was solid.

I think it's interesting that some brokerages are lowering their recommendations on ebay to hold or sell, and others are calling it a buying opportunity.

01-20-2005, 03:27 PM

The valuation as well as earnings potential are being considered. Also, there is a philosophy among analysts that if you have one disappointment in a company, there are likelymore to follow...

Google is down almost 2% today. Ebay is down almost 20%. Taser is up 3%.

I guess those who are stunned by the declines are faring well today. (Sorry, I just had to say that...

.)

**Mike** · 01-20-2005, 04:32 PM

I think someone needs to direct a taser in my direction...

01-20-2005, 09:56 PM

Tom,

I believe the issue is that ebay has increased their fees to sell items. That means the lower costs items will be hard to turn a profit. So folks are selling off because that will push business Yahoos way.

This is a stock to short at this point. Because they also guided down for 05.

Good luck!

**tsptalk** · 01-21-2005, 12:31 AM

Tuxx wrote:

I believe the issue is that ebay has increased their fees to sell items. That means the lower costs items will be hard to turn a profit. So folks are selling off because that will push business Yahoos way.

This is a stock to short at this point. Because they also guided down for 05.

Tuxx -
That news about fees came out days ago so I think it is your second point that is the thorn.

I think as a long term hold (which is tough for me) it is a good time to grab some. They also have a stock split set for mid-February.

Thanks!