I fund for July 08

**Corvette** · 07-01-2008, 09:57 AM

Nikkei down 0.13%
AORD down 1.35%

FV for Tuesday (previous)= +$0.0000

**Corvette** · 07-01-2008, 10:06 AM

Europe is down big today. FTSE is down over 2.5% right now.

It is not a good start for July.

I should have sold more yesterday.

Panic time.

Woe is me.

dollar down 0.23%

**FundSurfer** · 07-01-2008, 10:08 AM

Looks ugly....

We are almost to a very pivotal point. If we go below support, there is a big drop to the next support. It might be prudent to go to the sidelines until after the market has made up its mind.

**Corvette** · 07-01-2008, 10:12 AM

EAFE estimate down -$0.3084
plus FV Tuesday (previous) of = +$0.0000 = -$0.3084

dollar down 0.22%

**fedgolfer** · 07-01-2008, 03:06 PM

If ECB raises, dollar will rise, oil will fall (since the dollar/oil trade seems to be the real currency trade), equities should rise... short term bounce, correct?

**luv2read** · 07-01-2008, 03:11 PM

rising dollar = down I fund

**fedgolfer** · 07-01-2008, 03:19 PM

I know that, I'm not talking about I fund even though I posted this in the I-fund, thread. I think equities may have a short-term bounce but I fund may be held back because of the rising dollar. But still, my question is still open to others if they think the ECB raising rates may equate to rising US equities because everyone that trades oil, does so on the strength/weakness of the dollar. I'm contemplating buying into C&S funds since there is a lot of fear out there, almost everyone is pessimistic and short, and the weekly chart on the S&P is in bargain territory (doesn't mean it can't get worse, but it might get better before it gets worse).

**squalebear** · 07-01-2008, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

I know that, I'm not talking about I fund even though I posted this in the I-fund, thread. I think equities may have a short-term bounce but I fund may be held back because of the rising dollar. But still, my question is still open to others if they think the ECB raising rates may equate to rising US equities because everyone that trades oil, does so on the strength/weakness of the dollar. I'm contemplating buying into C&S funds since there is a lot of fear out there, almost everyone is pessimistic and short, and the weekly chart on the S&P is in bargain territory (doesn't mean it can't get worse, but it might get better before it gets worse).

IMHO, the Fed blew it when they left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. The
fight is against inflation. If the Fed raised rates, the USM might have seen
the dollar rise, oil drop and any hit on equities could have been marginalized.
Instead, we have a free falling USM, higher oil and a sinking dollar. The ECB
will likely raise rates. The Market will wait on the wording. If they give us
the hint of continuing rate hikes, the USM will take a crap. For how long is
anyones guess !

**fedgolfer** · 07-01-2008, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by squalebear

IMHO, the Fed blew it when they left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. The
fight is against inflation. If the Fed raised rates, the USM might have seen
the dollar rise, oil drop and any hit on equities could have been marginalized.
Instead, we have a free falling USM, higher oil and a sinking dollar. The ECB
will likely raise rates. The Market will wait on the wording. If they give us
the hint of continuing rate hikes, the USM will take a crap. For how long is
anyones guess !

But since the Fed probably knows that we're really importing inflation, they didn't cut, knowing that the ECB most likely would... that way inflation is fought globally with the FEd not even having to raise rates. It may be painful in the short term, but i'm starting to think they did it right. I guess we'll see if the ECB rate hikes curb inflation, which it should. Most likely, if it plays out this way... its way too early to definitely play it (I may take my IFT off the table today, and wait for a clearer sign) Maybe i'm too optimistic or just blind. Thanks for sharing your insights, as always!