Playing the I fund

**FundSurfer** · 10-31-2006, 02:38 PM

Here is my quick and dirty method of getting an I-fund estimate that anyone can do.

Step 1: Go to http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/
and average the current numbers for Japan Nikkei 225; Europe Euronext 100; and UK FTSE 100.

Step 2: Go to http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
and get the % Change for the Last trade. (You are really interested in the change from noon the prior day if no FV but this is a little trickier to guesstimate from the graph.)

Add the two numbers for step 1 and step 2 (both are percentages).

Now I realize all the stocks are not in the three indexes above and that the currency weights for the dollar index are not correct, but this method does get me a fairly good estimate.

Now to see the trend of the overseas markets, I go to
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/Wor...ld_charts.html
This along with the trend of the dollar index tells me the direction of the market prior to noon. You will find that the trend of the OSM will follow the trend of the US markets most of the time.

I have used a more complicated method which uses a spreadsheet and requires more data but have found that having a more precise number at 11 am does not tell me that much. To me the trend prior to noon plus the fact of are we up, even, or down is what I really want to know.

**350zCommTech** · 10-31-2006, 03:10 PM

Early estimate: Up 9 cents.

Dollar seems to have found it's bottom for today. Thanks to North Korea I guess.

**fabijo** · 10-31-2006, 03:34 PM

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

Here is my quick and dirty method of getting an I-fund estimate that anyone can do.

Step 1: Go to http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/
and average the current numbers for Japan Nikkei 225; Europe Euronext 100; and UK FTSE 100.

Step 2: Go to http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX
and get the % Change for the Last trade. (You are really interested in the change from noon the prior day if no FV but this is a little trickier to guesstimate from the graph.)

Add the two numbers for step 1 and step 2 (both are percentages).

Now I realize all the stocks are not in the three indexes above and that the currency weights for the dollar index are not correct, but this method does get me a fairly good estimate.

Now to see the trend of the overseas markets, I go to
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/Wor...ld_charts.html
This along with the trend of the dollar index tells me the direction of the market prior to noon. You will find that the trend of the OSM will follow the trend of the US markets most of the time.

I have used a more complicated method which uses a spreadsheet and requires more data but have found that having a more precise number at 11 am does not tell me that much. To me the trend prior to noon plus the fact of are we up, even, or down is what I really want to know.

Thanks for the useful methods and commentary, FundSurfer. It's always good to see how other people are doing their math and making their decisions.

**350zCommTech** · 10-31-2006, 03:43 PM

Final estimate: up 8 pennies.

Dollar continues to fall whcih is good for tomorrow>

**vol46** · 10-31-2006, 03:52 PM

Okay, when is the pullback coming? Been out of the I fund for about a week and a half now, waiting for a pullback to get back in. Just have to wait a little longer. Thought yesterday might be a beginning to a pullback, but bouncing back today.
Later Vol46

**pyriel** · 10-31-2006, 04:36 PM

Originally Posted by vol46

Okay, when is the pullback coming? Been out of the I fund for about a week and a half now, waiting for a pullback to get back in. Just have to wait a little longer. Thought yesterday might be a beginning to a pullback, but bouncing back today.
Later Vol46

Kind of a double edge sword isn't it? According to the seasonality, Nov-Apr has been pretty strong for stocks. But here we are on an overbought market. No matter what, I think we are in for an uptrend and I believe everyone here when they say a pullback now will make this market healthy for more uptrend. ;-)

**Oldcoin** · 10-31-2006, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by vol46

Okay, when is the pullback coming? Been out of the I fund for about a week and a half now, waiting for a pullback to get back in. Just have to wait a little longer. Thought yesterday might be a beginning to a pullback, but bouncing back today.
Later Vol46

Boy, if only we knew! The last pull back occurred over a 4 to 5 week period. I think these things need time to play out, so we’ll have some up days but more down days. Keep an eye on your indicators and when we’re oversold it’ll be time. Tech is predicting a significant drop, by the sounds of his post and others are only looking for a 3%.

**sugarandspice** · 10-31-2006, 05:05 PM

If the pain continues and we see triple digit loss today, I think you can count on a FV-. I was contemplating a play earlier to the I anticipating a big drop, but if a big drop occured it would more than likely drag down the overseas markets. Then the "giveback" part of the FV would only soften the blow or make it a wash.

**Griffin** · 10-31-2006, 05:46 PM

Originally Posted by sugarandspice

If the pain continues and we see triple digit loss today, I think you can count on a FV-. I was contemplating a play earlier to the I anticipating a big drop, but if a big drop occured it would more than likely drag down the overseas markets. Then the "giveback" part of the FV would only soften the blow or make it a wash.

It ain't that bad

...just the end of the month hucklebuck....if tomorrow's red, then start worrying.

**The_Technician** · 10-31-2006, 07:32 PM

See Carnac's thread for news on FV prediction....

**FundSurfer** · 10-31-2006, 07:43 PM

Originally Posted by The_Technician

See Carnac's thread for news on FV prediction....

HOCUS...POCUS.... Allacazam! Does the new method feature astrology?

Start predicting the FV correctly and I'm sure you'll have everyone's attention.

I appologize to everyone who is getting tired of my dogging Dumbledore about his rants. I thought initially it would be better to ignore him but after reading his post have decided that something needs to be said. I think it is dangerous to let his claims go unchallenged.

**FUTURESTRADER** · 10-31-2006, 07:52 PM

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

HOCUS...POCUS.... Allacazam! Does the new method feature astrology?

Start predicting the FV correctly and I'm sure you'll have everyone's attention.

I appologize to everyone who is getting tired of my dogging Dumbledore about his rants. I thought initially it would be better to ignore him but after reading his post have decided that something needs to be said. I think it is dangerous to let his claims go unchallenged.

hahaha..he does provide some comic relief