Thread: OK I Fund Dogs Where Are You?

Woof!

nnuut,I do not see the dollar gaining any strength tomorrow. If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news. We are not an export country. But, foreign equities won't like that news either. They are dependent on our economy to keep the global market going.

Watch the foreign market tonight. I bet it drops like our domestics did today. I also expect our domestics to drop again tomorrow. Don't forget about oil. It's taking its toll on equities right now. Even a good inventory report didn't help (lower dollar is the reason).

If Friday's report comes in showing a widening trade balance...another sell-off could ensue. Question is, how far are we going to drop? FOMC looms on the horizon.

I will say this, the "I" fund is probably a better short term play than either "C" or "S" right now.

Just my thoughts. I'm not an economist (not that they're any help). :P

Good Luck!

coolhand wrote:

If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news.

Might it be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news? Or in the case of the dollar, sell the rumor, buy the bad news? Maybe it will rally?

Just a contrarian point. I have no real opinion on it.

Bounce, possibly. I'm not expecting anything as volatile as the C fund, though. Steady as she goes, upward, is the way I see it.

I agree with the I trend continuing forward/up with an occassional draw back, and that's about as in-depth as I go for now, other than the recent word on the streetout of asia, particularly Japan is fairly good economically,in spite of pressures they are having with oil, as we are. Of course the Euros could put a drag on I. As for investors here, smart or otherwise, appears they may be dumping the dollar in favor of chasing the oil stocks/funds/commodities which would seem to account for the pressure on the dollar and then add on the trade deficit, ow!

Just got this off Reuters on Yahoo:

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar spun to a two-month low against the euro on Thursday, hit by comments from the Japanese prime minister that Japan's foreign reserves needed diversity. ....Traders said a range of factors have dented the dollar, including oil rising to near an all-time high and concerns about upcoming U.S. trade deficit data, though a prime mover was the attraction of currencies of countries with high interest rates.

Does anyone have any commentsaboutthe trade report? If it is bad news for the U.S does the I fund usually go up? Down?

Thanks Tennis Guy

tsptalk wrote:

coolhand wrote:

If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news.

Might it be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news? Or in the case of the dollar, sell the rumor, buy the bad news? Maybe it will rally?

Just a contrarian point. I have no real opinion on it.

Of course, you could be right Tom. It may be a time to buy the rumor. The problem as I see it is that the jobs we seem to be manufacturing are service sector jobs. What are we exporting? China's still putting cheap goods on the street here. Plus, what if the report comes in lukewarm? Even so, it's tempting to put a little something in, especially if we're downtoday. It just seems like such a gamble though.

Dollar is tanking again. Asian equities are following our market down from yesterday. Euroland has not begun trading yet, but I suspect will also drop. Even if the trade balance looks good, the "I" fund may not be the place to be Friday. The dollar will probably bounce and offset any gains.

It's so mixed. The Fed keeps telling us the economy is moving along okay, but we have so many negatives weighing on the market. Maybe I'm a little too early with my expectation that the market is going to drop, but it's not as though my attitude toward the marketisn't justified.Iwant to get back in, I'm just having a hard time finding a reason to.

I do keep an eye on John's market timing models. He's all "G" right now too as are you and others. I happen to like my company right now .

Don't know, Just don't know???? Think we will lose on the Trade numbers and may force the market further down, but that may be a chance to get in and catch the bounce? Rolo thinks the other direction "Bounce, possibly. I'm not expecting anything as volatile as the C fund, though. Steady as she goes, upward, is the way I see it." I'm in a wait and see mode for now.:*

Speculating is healthy and a great way to learn about the market and economics. However, with so much uncertainty, I will go where the evidence leads...the observable, measurable, certain evidence. That evidence, so far, is that the I fund is in a very nice uptrend and I will stick with it until I see a clear indicator otherwise (i.e. it tanks on volume/tangible bad news ordollar clearly reverses trend).

The same goes for C only it isn't nearly as strong; if it doesn't resume the uptrend by Monday, I will move 100% I.

I'm with Rolo, and playing the long-term uptrend. Playing the short term wiggles hasn't helped me. I expect there will be choppiness, but I believe the uptrend will continue over the next weeks and possibly months. If the dollar continues to weaken toward $1.45/euro, which many anticipate is likely, that alone could give me a 10% return this year even if the stocks themselves remain flat. I'll take that.

Until I see a definitive downturn, I will stick to my 100% I.

I think that the I may fall a little and that could be a good op to buy in for people. I also think that over the next few weeks it will continue to gain strength. I will remain 100% I unless it drops below the 10 DMA.

US $ down .13% right now and EFV is down .28 EFA down .45 Not to bad. The oil issue will leave a scratch, but I think this fund will continue to gain.

Stick with the plan - 100% I and enjoying the ride.